Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nevada City, CA

DISCUSSION

...Today-Sunday...
Ensemble guidance indicates an upper level low that will move through California this weekend into early next week. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area with best chances over the northern/central Sacramento Valley and in the foothills and mountains. The National Blend of Models (NBM) shows a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms today and a 20-30% chance on Sunday, with the best potential between 1 PM and 9 PM and possibly into the early morning hours. Severe hail up to an inch will be possible with the strongest storms along with frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and chances for funnel clouds and/or a weak tornado.
Additionally, the CAMs have continued to depict a Shasta County Convergence Zone signature on Sunday that may result in higher rainfall rates and potential flooding in urban/low-lying areas over Shasta and Tehama counties.

Very light high elevation mountain snow is possible above 6000 feet late Sunday into Monday, with amounts generally less than 2 inches at the highest peaks.

Warmer than average temperatures are favored to continue during this period as well.

...Monday-Tuesday...
Lingering showers are expected over the Sierra through Monday, otherwise dry weather is anticipated as ridging builds back into the region briefly.

Mid to Late Week
A trough moving into the Pacific Northwest clips the area by mid- week, bringing some light showers to the northern Sacramento Valley, foothills and mountains north of Highway 50 on Wednesday.
Dry conditions return on Thursday, with breezy north to east winds developing behind the system. NBM probabilities of wind gusts greater than 30 mph sit around 50-80% for Thursday and Friday, with the highest chances along and west of I-5 and mountains.

Additionally as ridging builds, temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the week into the mid to upper 70s through the Valley.


AVIATION
Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern Sacramento Valley (RDD and RBL), foothills and mountains through Sunday evening, bringing areas of MVFR conditions and local IFR/LIFR. Patchy MVFR conditions from mist impacting the northern San Joaquin Valley (SCK and MOD) from 12z-15z Sunday. Surface winds generally less than 12 kts next 24 hours, except for erratic winds near thunderstorms.



STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.