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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 632 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers. Areas of fog after midnight with vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw late. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 632 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
low pressure will slide by to the north today. A stronger frontal system looks to cross the waters Sunday into Monday. Another area of low pressure may impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the waters by late next week. Small craft advisories may be needed early next week.

FXUS61 KLWX 030208 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 908 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will move overhead Sunday bringing renewed rain chances. The associated cold front will move through Sunday afternoon. A stronger cold front will pass through the area late Tuesday night. High pressure builds for the second half of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Rain has begun moving into the area from the southwest and is expected to continue advancing northeastward through the night.
Dense fog has developed along the western shore of Maryland and along the immediate shoreline of the Potomac and is expected to continue expanding east of the Blue Ridge overnight. Visibility likely stabilizes as precip advances but low clouds associated with the rainfall will continue poor conditions. Precip begins to exit early in the morning but fog and low ceilings are expected to persist beyond sunrise.

Previous discussion follows...
Rain will persist most of the overnight with low pressure moving toward the area. This will be a steadier and more moderate rain than what was observed Friday. Overall amounts will be in the quarter to half inch range. Guidance continues to have widespread areas of dense fog and low clouds tonight and lasting into Sunday. Almost all guidance has the fog more widespread tonight across the entire CWA. Additional Dense Fog Advisories may be needed late tonight.

Much above normal lows tonight with temps only falling into the 40s to near 50.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Guidance continues to bring the low overhead during the day on Sunday. In turn, this will result in the mid-level dry slot moving through. Latest soundings and forecasts have low-level convergence and moisture trapped below the dry layer. Thinking is light drizzle or showers will persist through most of the day. Areas NE of the Potomac River will experience the rain/drizzle the longest with more moisture in place. Sunday is likely a dreary and damp day for nearly everyone. Temps will be in the 50s to near 60, so not chilly by seasonal norms.

Low pressure will move off to the northeast Sunday night with rapidly clearing skies expected. The exception will be west of the Allegheny Front where clouds will linger and conditions will be favorable for upslope rain showers Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures will cool Monday night into the low 30s allowing for snow to start to mix in. Overall accumulations will be light during this time (less than one-half inch for most) given less than favorable thermal profiles and more-so westerly winds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A clipper low located over the Great Lakes region Tuesday morning will have moved over our area and tracked offshore by Wednesday morning. The low and associated cold front will bring both precipitation and much cooler air to the forecast area. On Tuesday, high temperatures will be in the low 40s to low 50s with those along and west of the Alleghenies staying in the mid to upper 30s. Behind the cold front, temperatures on Wednesday will top out in the mid to upper 40s for most with higher elevations in the low to mid 30s.
Most of the area will see rain as the precipitation type with higher elevations seeing a transition from rain to snow Tuesday night.Westerly winds will bring a prolonged period of upslope snow to the Alleghenies through Wednesday night.

By Thursday morning, conditions dry out areawide as high pressure builds to our south. Colder temperatures remain throughout the day with high temperatures topping out in the 40s. Temperatures begin to moderate slightly as high pressure pivots off the east coast on Friday. Conditions will remain dry through Friday, but westerly winds will lead to a slight chance for some upslope precipitation for those west of the Alleghenies.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIFR dense fog and low cigs have developed for IAD and terminals east. Rain has begun at CHO and is expected to continue advancing northeast through the night. As precip reaches the terminals, vsby should stabilize to IFR though cigs likely remain LIFR. Guidance seemed a few hours behind timing the rain, so currently have precip exiting southwest to northeast from CHO ~12z to BWI/MTN by 17/18z. Low cigs and vsby persist into the afternoon, but conditions should sharply improve around 0z Sunday night.

Previous discussion follows...
Widespread rain showers arrive again around 00Z with next low pressure system. Expect widespread areas of LIFR cigs and vsbys to develop late tonight as the rain lifts northeast. Expect IFR/LIFR cigs all day Sunday with areas of drizzle. Skies begin to clear Sunday night as WNW to NW winds strengthen.

VFR conditions will prevail Monday with winds out of the NW at 5-10 kts.

Sub-VFR conditions are possible on Tuesday as an area of low pressure approaches and moves through the area bringing precipitation. Conditions improve to VFR at all terminals by Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds in.

MARINE
Dense marine fog continues tonight and lingers through Sunday, especially along the shorelines. Winds will likely remain below SCA through Monday. While winds aloft will strengthen Sunday, warm air blowing over cooler waters should inhibit stronger winds aloft from mixing down toward the surface.

Southerly winds on Tuesday will shift to northwesterly in the wake of a cold front on Wednesday. Winds will likely stay below SCA criteria on Tuesday before increase to SCA criteria on Wednesday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ008-011-014- 017-018-508.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

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Fort Carroll, Patapsco River, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
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Sat -- 02:43 AM EST     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM EST     0.52 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:38 PM EST     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:01 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:41 PM EST     0.81 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:57 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

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