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PZZ455 Cape Mendocino To Pt Arena Out 10 Nm- 253 Pm Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Tonight..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves W building to 7 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 6 ft at 5 seconds.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed..SE winds 5 kt. Waves W 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night..E winds 5 kt. Waves W 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 8 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt. Waves se 5 ft at 7 seconds...and W 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat..SE winds 10 kt. Waves sw 7 ft at 12 seconds...and nw 7 ft at 14 seconds.

PZZ400 253 Pm Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for northern california waters..Northerly breezes have returned and will increase into this evening. Gusts around 25 kt with wind waves near 6 feet are forecast in the lee of cape mendocino this evening. Otherwise, light north winds up to 15 kt are forecast through Tue. Light southerly breezes up to 15 kt are forecast to return on Wed and persist into Thu. Stronger southerlies up to 20 kt are possible on Fri over the outer waters and south of cape mendocino. A series of westerly swells will spread into the waters this week.

FXUS66 KEKA 112242 AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 242 PM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected for the next several days as ridging builds over the west coast.
Temperatures will warm to 5 to 10 degree above normal late in the week while the weather remains dry.

DISCUSSION
The system last night was quite an under-producer of rainfall across our region. Only a couple tenths of an inch were recorded in Del Norte counties while most other areas remained completely dry. With the system being on the weaker side this also resulted in faster clearing over our area. The forecast has been adjusted to including more clear skies than previously depicted. Otherwise dry conditions remain in store as ridging builds over the west coast through mid week.

Wednesday night or Thursday will see a front approach the Pacific Northwest, but the process of trying to break down the ridge is going to do a number on it and guidance is now all trending toward the front washing out before any rain reaches Northwest California.
The ridge will then quickly rebuild behind the front, becoming a formidable force to be reckoned with. The general westerly flow in the Pacific basin is forecast to run into this ridge and cause a splitting of the flow. The vast majority of the energy will move north over the top into Alaska and Canada while at the same time a secondary piece splits off and develops a cut-off low over the Pacific waters west of California. It will take some time for moisture to reach the area with ensembles concentrating on late in the weekend as the next chance for rain. This will occur when the low quickly ejects north through the Pacific Northwest but isn't able to completely break down the ridge, allowing again for another cut-off low to position itself off the coast. There is general consensus that this process will eventually break down the ridge and allow for more rain into California, which the Climate Prediction Center shows in their 8-14 day outlook, but the details of when will remain uncertain for some time.

AVIATION
High pressure to the west of Northwest California will keep conditions dry and mild. Onshore flow at the terminals will bring the threat of MVFR ceilings into tonight. Light offshore flow tonight could keep ceilings and visibilities at MVFR, but by early morning ceilings could lower to IFR conditions. Interior valley fog or low clouds are also likely by early morning and dissipate by mid to late morning. As a result, Ukiah will mostly be VFR during this TAF period except possibly around sunrise tomorrow.

MARINE
Relatively calm seas and winds will continue through mid to late week. Minor westerly swell groups are anticipated to move through the waters throughout the week, as well. Local wind wave generation is also forecast to remain low with sustained wind speeds mostly under 15 kt. The exception will be late this afternoon and into tonight in the lee of Cape Mendocino with northerlies increasing after in the wake of the dissipated surface low/front. A marginal advisory for small craft appears warranted with gusts around 25 kt and local wind wave generation approaching 6 ft.
Northerlies will subside into the middle of the week as a decaying front approaches and disrupts the offshore ridge and nearshore thermal trough. Light southerlies up to 15 kt will develop as surface ridging shifts inland and a low pressure system approaches 130W. Uncertainty increases late this week and into the weekend with the approach of a low pressure system from the SW. Some models suggest that the low has the potential to bring stronger southerlies to the area; however, the event is too far in the future to have clarity on the placement, intensity and timing.

COASTAL HAZARDS
Tides will be approaching the highest astronomical tides of this winter Wednesday and Thursday with peaks around 8.15ft MLLW at the North Spit. With no major swells impacting the coast this week, widespread coastal flooding is not expected to be a concern.
However whenever the tides reach 8.8ft MLLW at the North Spit in Humboldt Bay, some minor flooding occurs on Jackson Ranch Rd. in the Arcata Bottom and on several roads in King Salmon. Thus, tides will need to be watched closely this week. Currently the tide is running 0.5ft above predicted. If this persists, the tide could peak at 8.65ft Wednesday and Thursday. With light northerlies Wednesday, odds are this difference doesn't change too much, but southerly winds on Thursday could enhance the surge potential to approach the 8.8ft threshold which would require a coastal flood advisory for Humboldt Bay. /RPA

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ475.

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Albion
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Mon -- 02:54 AM PST     2.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:14 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:24 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:57 AM PST     6.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:41 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:08 PM PST     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:16 PM PST     4.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albion, California, Tide feet

Mendocino
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Mon -- 02:52 AM PST     2.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:15 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:24 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:50 AM PST     6.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:41 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:06 PM PST     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:09 PM PST     4.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mendocino, Mendocino Bay, California, Tide feet

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