Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean City, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:19PM Saturday March 28, 2020 1:29 PM EDT (17:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:09AMMoonset 11:28PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 106 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 pm edt this afternoon through Sunday afternoon...
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late in the evening, then becoming ne after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Rain likely early in the evening. A chance of rain late in the evening. A chance of drizzle in the late evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of rain and drizzle early in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the late evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers until early morning.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 106 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure located in new england early this morning will slide to the southeast and out to sea today. A warm front is forecast to approach slowly from the southwest and south through tonight. The boundary is expected to extend across northeastern maryland, delaware and southern new jersey on Sunday. Low pressure is anticipated to develop in or near our region late on Sunday before moving off the coast on Sunday night. A cold front is expected to follow from the west on Monday afternoon. Weak high pressure should influence our weather on Tuesday. Low pressure is forecast to pass off the north carolina coast on Tuesday night with high pressure returning to our region for Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front may approach from the west late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean City, NJ
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location: 39.28, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 281405 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1005 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure located in New England early this morning will slide to the southeast and out to sea today. A warm front is forecast to approach slowly from the southwest and south through tonight. The boundary is expected to extend across northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey on Sunday. Low pressure is anticipated to develop in or near our region late on Sunday before moving off the coast on Sunday night. A cold front is expected to follow from the west on Monday afternoon. Weak high pressure should influence our weather on Tuesday. Low pressure is forecast to pass off the North Carolina coast on Tuesday night with high pressure returning to our region for Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front may approach from the west late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 10 am update: Round of showers with embedded storms is moving through the region this morning. The storms are primarily in Delmarva with this first batch of precipitation, but additional showers developing in south-central Pennsylvania have recently produced some lightning on its approach to the CWA. Have added slight chance of thunder for the rest of the morning generally from Reading southeast to the Cape May area to address this threat (linked to the northeast fringe of elevated instability per mesoscale analysis). Based on upstream analysis, may need to extend thunder chances into the afternoon, but will reevaluate radar trends later this morning before including.

Previous discussion .

Developing area of low pressure sits over the central CONUS with a warm front extending east from this feature towards North Carolina. Meanwhile, a swath of rainfall continues to overspread the region early this morning. This rain is actually associated with the warm front aloft near 850 mb. The rain has already reached SE PA into southern NJ as of the early morning and will expand across the remainder of the CWA through this morning as it moves NE. It could fall moderately to even briefly heavy at times but rates should not be enough to cause any hydro issues beyond ponding on roadways in spots as well as low lying areas. Beyond around 18z, there may be a lull or at least a let up of the rain as shortwave energy moves off to the N/E. But by and large it will be a wet day. Temps will also be cool due to the rain and east winds with highs ranging from the 40s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ to the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Broad area of low pressure will continue to move north and east through the upper midwest towards the Great Lakes through tonight. As this occurs, the warm front aloft will lift through the area while the warm front at the surface barely makes it to the Delmarva by Sunday morning as high pressure off to the N/E east impedes its progress. With the front aloft and deepest moisture lifting north, this should result in the steadiest rain becoming confined mainly to northern parts of the CWA with time, especially areas along and north of the I-78 and I-80 corridor. Farther south through SE PA, southern NJ, and Delmarva stratus will persist under an inversion along with some patchy drizzle, fog, and spotty light rain. Temperatures won't drop too much with lows tonight mainly in the 40s to low 50s.

Sunday is still shaping up to be a tricky forecast as the low moves into the upper Great Lakes with its triple point lifting NE towards the area by late day. The main challenge will be how quickly and how far north does the warm front make it. Think that its progress will be slow but by the afternoon it should be lifting through the Delmarva and then reach into SE PA by late day. The day should be mostly cloudy though, especially ahead of the front, as low stratus persists under the inversion along with some possible drizzle and/or spotty light rain. Tricky forecast for highs due to the front but expect that parts of NE PA and NW NJ won't make it out of the low 50s while 70s are likely across parts of Delmarva. We are forecasting highs in the mid 60s over SE PA into adjacent parts of southern NJ but these highs may not occur until late afternoon.

The other forecast challenge for Sunday is the potential for afternoon convection in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front. Forecast models continue to indicate the potential for upwards of 500-1000 j/kg of ML CAPE with very strong deep layer shear of 60-70 knots. The mitigating factors though will be that the strongest forcing will be north of the region and without strong forcing and fairly low instability compared to the strong shear convection may have a hard time getting going. Still think though that there will be at least the potential for some scattered showers/storms to develop in the afternoon over central PA into western MD with these moving east into the region by the late afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. A fairly progressive weather pattern is anticipated for the period from Sunday night through Friday.

Developing low pressure in our vicinity on Sunday evening should move out to sea on Sunday night and Monday. Meanwhile, low pressure in the Great Lakes region should weaken as it drifts eastward. The low is forecast to pull a cold front through eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey on Monday afternoon. We are expecting some lingering showers on Sunday evening, mainly on the coastal plain, as the low pulls away from our area. Also, while Monday's cold front should have limited moisture associated with it, the system could bring a few light rain showers to our northern counties.

High pressure is expected to nudge into our region from the north on Tuesday. We are forecasting mainly dry weather. However, an impulse in the cyclonic mid level flow could bring a few light showers to the northern part of our region.

Low pressure is anticipated to move across the southeastern states on Tuesday before passing off the Carolina Coast on Tuesday night. An inverted trough is forecast to extend northward into the northeastern states. As a result, we have a chance of rain for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts should be rather light. Temperatures may be borderline for producing a little snow in the elevated terrain of the Poconos from late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

High pressure is expected to build across the southeastern states on Wednesday night and Thursday. The northern fringe of the air mass should bring mainly dry weather to our region. A cold front and some rain showers approaching from the west may affect our weather on Friday.

Temperatures should be rather seasonably through the period, with Monday being the warmest day and Wednesday being the chilliest.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Periods of showers and possibly a storm (generally south/west of PHL), with CIGs generally MVFR and VSBYs briefly becoming sub-VFR in the heavier precipitation. There will be lengthy breaks between the showers, where conditions will likely improve somewhat. However, the general trend will be for worsening conditions with time through the day. Winds generally easterly around or below 10 kt, though will be erratic around precipitation. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . Expecting periods of drizzle, fog, or even showers overnight with conditions primarily IFR or worse. Winds light east to northeast. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . IFR/LIFR should improve to at least MVFR by afternoon. Winds E/SE 5-10 knots most of the day becoming southerly late day. Low confidence.

Outlook.

Sunday night . Any lingering MVFR conditions, improving to VFR. West wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence. Monday . Mainly VFR. West to northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Medium confidence.

Monday night . Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Tuesday . Mainly VFR. North wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Medium confidence.

Tuesday night . VFR/MVFR ceilings with a chance of rain. East to northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Wednesday . VFR/MVFR ceilings with a chance of rain. Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Medium confidence.

MARINE. Winds/seas increase through today with SCA conditions developing this afternoon from south to north as east winds gust up to 25 knots.

The winds should diminish south to north into tonight but elevated seas are likely to persist through most of Sunday for the northern ocean zones where we continue the SCA through Sunday afternoon.

Outlook.

Sunday night through Tuesday evening . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday . A northeast wind gusting to 25 to 30 knots is forecast.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>452. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ453>455.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . CMS/Fitzsimmons Short Term . Fitzsimmons Long Term . Iovino Aviation . CMS/Fitzsimmons/Iovino Marine . Fitzsimmons/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 10 mi60 min 48°F 47°F1019.1 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 19 mi60 min ENE 11 50°F 1019 hPa49°F
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 30 mi60 min E 11 G 16 48°F 49°F1016.4 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 35 mi66 min ESE 19 G 21 1016.8 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 42 mi60 min E 9.9 G 13 48°F 1016.7 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi60 min SE 13 G 16 49°F 49°F1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ12 mi36 minE 87.00 miLight Rain50°F45°F83%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N9N9NW9NW6SE8E3E3CalmS3S3S3--S5S5S3E4SE3E3SE4NE4E8E8E8
1 day ago--------S9S10
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S9----------------------------NW5--NW10
2 days ago--NE21
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----------------------NW4------------

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City, 9th Street Bridge, New Jersey
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Ocean City
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Sat -- 05:32 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:33 AM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:30 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:41 PM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.12.21.30.70.30.30.71.52.433.33.332.21.40.70.40.40.81.62.53.33.7

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Thorofare, Ocean Drive bridge, New Jersey
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Middle Thorofare
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:18 AM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:08 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:19 PM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.732.11.20.60.30.41.122.83.33.53.532.11.30.60.30.51.12.13.13.74

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.