Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairlee, MD
December 1, 2023 11:51 PM EST (04:51 UTC)
Sunrise 7:04AM Sunset 4:43PM Moonrise 8:32PM Moonset 11:07AM
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 934 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 934 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
an area of low pressure will pass north and west of the area tonight into Saturday. A stronger frontal system looks to cross the waters Sunday into Monday. Another area of low pressure may impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the waters by late next week. Small craft advisories may be needed early next week.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
an area of low pressure will pass north and west of the area tonight into Saturday. A stronger frontal system looks to cross the waters Sunday into Monday. Another area of low pressure may impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the waters by late next week. Small craft advisories may be needed early next week.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KPHI 020239 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 939 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will move to the lower Ohio Valley tonight, but then weaken as it moves north of our area through Saturday. Another low and front will affect our weather late this weekend into Monday.
A series of high and low pressure systems will then move through the region next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 930 PM, the earlier widespread shield of rain is well to our northeast however a zone of some more organized rain remains across mostly southern New Jersey to Delmarva. Low to mid level warm air advection continues this evening and the 00z Sterling/Dulles RAOB shows a sharp inversion in the lowest levels with strong flow above the surface. This along with some trailing shortwave energy will maintain a zone of some rain but it will shift south and east into the overnight hours. Some of the high-resolution guidance continues to show a more showery scenario for a time overnight and the radar trends are looking more like this. Given the coverage thus far though, continued with the rain mention plus there is likely some drizzle occurring with the weaker radar returns. Made some tweaks to the hourly temperature, dew point and wind grids to keep them current based on observations/trends.
Otherwise, low pressure will track to the lower Great Lakes by Saturday morning. That will attempt to lift a surface warm front northward up the Atlantic coastal plain, however it will struggle to reach our area through tonight. The model forecast sounding show some drying in the mid levels and with less forcing this should result in some drizzle. Otherwise, plenty of low cloud cover is expected as all the low-level moisture is gathered below an inversion.
Some of the fog could become locally dense overnight. The extent of the fog however is of lower confidence given the widespread low cloud cover that is expected to be in place through the night. For now, expanded the patchy fog mention.
As we go through Saturday, our area is between systems and the low-level flow is forecast to be light. The day will start with low clouds and at least some fog and it should be a dry day.
There should be enough drying to result in the clouds lifting by midday with some breaks of sunshine. This time of year though with the low sun angle and lack of mixing tends to keep the lower clouds locked in, however the model forecast soundings do show the potential for some improvement in the afternoon under a light southwest wind. Despite the clouds, temperatures will be mild with afternoon highs reaching the 50s to low 60s.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The period starts with the region sandwiched in between a front to our north and one to our south and a southwest flow in the mid- levels. Weak low pressure may ride along the southern front and it inches closer to the forecast area. A shortwave aloft and an associated surface low will move across the Great Lake and into New York state on Sunday. Another weakening shortwave will approach the region on Monday.
Rain will spread across the region Saturday night, persist into Sunday, at least the first half, before moving out from the south to north late in the day or Sunday evening. Rainfall will mainly be on the lighter side totaling 0.25" to 0.50". Monday is trending dry.
Temperatures will run above normal through this period. Overnight lows Saturday night will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 40s to lower 60s. Lows Sunday night will range from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Sunday's highs will range from the lower 40s to upper 50s.
Winds will be fairly benign Saturday night and Sunday. They'll pick up from the west Sunday night and Monday and top out in the 10 to 20 mph range.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A series of high and low pressure systems move through the region next week though most of the week looks to be dry.
The period begins with high pressure building to the south of the region Monday night into Tuesday as the upper-level trough from the weekend deamplifies. This will result in a dry day with near normal temperatures.
For Tuesday night into Wednesday, guidance has remained consistent with the consensus that another wave of upper-level energy develops and re-amplifies the upper-level trough and begins to dig it out of the midwest and move it eastward towards the Eastern Seaboard. Associated with this re-deepening trough is a surface clipper system that quickly progresses out of the Great Lakes region and into the Mid-Atlantic during this timeframe. The passage of this system looks to provide a quick hit of precipitation for Tuesday night into Wednesday, the vast majority of which will be rain. Some mixed precip/snow looks to be possible at the highest elevations in the Poconos and northwest New Jersey Tuesday night with cooler temperatures.
The surface low then passes offshore and model guidance suggests that it will rapidly strengthen once it does so.
However, guidance continues to suggest that it will be far enough offshore to result in a minimal effect on the weather in our region. At this time, the main impacts look to be slightly below normal temperatures and breezy conditions, particularly closer to the shore.
Strong high pressure and near normal temperatures look to build back in for Thursday and into Friday. Some guidance is suggesting another upper-level trough/surface low may pass through at the end of next week but this remains highly uncertain at this time.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...MVFR/IFR ceilings lowering to LIFR at times. Areas of mostly light rain ends by about 06z, however some drizzle should occur for a time thereafter. The rain/drizzle and also some fog will result in visibility restrictions. Light and variable to locally calm winds overall. Low confidence regarding mostly the visibility restrictions related to fog.
Saturday...IFR, locally LIFR, ceilings improve to MVFR early, then should improve to VFR by about 18z. Some fog in the morning will result in visibility restrictions. Light and variable winds, becoming southwesterly around 5 knots. Low confidence regarding the timing of improving conditions.
Outlook...
Saturday night...VFR to start. Becoming MVFR as rain spreads across the terminals. Patchy fog possible after midnight. Light northeast winds. Moderate confidence.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR conditions expected, likely persisting throughout the day. Northeast winds around 10 kts. Moderate confidence.
Sunday night...Returning to VFR as the precipitation comes to an end.
Winds becoming westerly around 15 kts. Some stronger gusts possible. Moderate confidence.
Monday...Monday is trending drier. Showers have been removed. VFR conditions expected. Breezy with west winds around 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. Moderate confidence.
Monday night and Tuesday...VFR. Westerly winds around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with light rain. Winds 5-10 knots Tuesday night increasing to around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots on Wednesday. Low confidence.
MARINE
The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Saturday. Some rain tonight into early Saturday.
Outlook...
Saturday night and Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.
Sunday night and Monday...SCA conditions developing and continuing Monday.
Tuesday...SCA conditions not expected.
Wednesday...SCA conditions possible due to northwest to north wind gusts around 25 knots and seas up to 5 feet.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 939 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will move to the lower Ohio Valley tonight, but then weaken as it moves north of our area through Saturday. Another low and front will affect our weather late this weekend into Monday.
A series of high and low pressure systems will then move through the region next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 930 PM, the earlier widespread shield of rain is well to our northeast however a zone of some more organized rain remains across mostly southern New Jersey to Delmarva. Low to mid level warm air advection continues this evening and the 00z Sterling/Dulles RAOB shows a sharp inversion in the lowest levels with strong flow above the surface. This along with some trailing shortwave energy will maintain a zone of some rain but it will shift south and east into the overnight hours. Some of the high-resolution guidance continues to show a more showery scenario for a time overnight and the radar trends are looking more like this. Given the coverage thus far though, continued with the rain mention plus there is likely some drizzle occurring with the weaker radar returns. Made some tweaks to the hourly temperature, dew point and wind grids to keep them current based on observations/trends.
Otherwise, low pressure will track to the lower Great Lakes by Saturday morning. That will attempt to lift a surface warm front northward up the Atlantic coastal plain, however it will struggle to reach our area through tonight. The model forecast sounding show some drying in the mid levels and with less forcing this should result in some drizzle. Otherwise, plenty of low cloud cover is expected as all the low-level moisture is gathered below an inversion.
Some of the fog could become locally dense overnight. The extent of the fog however is of lower confidence given the widespread low cloud cover that is expected to be in place through the night. For now, expanded the patchy fog mention.
As we go through Saturday, our area is between systems and the low-level flow is forecast to be light. The day will start with low clouds and at least some fog and it should be a dry day.
There should be enough drying to result in the clouds lifting by midday with some breaks of sunshine. This time of year though with the low sun angle and lack of mixing tends to keep the lower clouds locked in, however the model forecast soundings do show the potential for some improvement in the afternoon under a light southwest wind. Despite the clouds, temperatures will be mild with afternoon highs reaching the 50s to low 60s.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The period starts with the region sandwiched in between a front to our north and one to our south and a southwest flow in the mid- levels. Weak low pressure may ride along the southern front and it inches closer to the forecast area. A shortwave aloft and an associated surface low will move across the Great Lake and into New York state on Sunday. Another weakening shortwave will approach the region on Monday.
Rain will spread across the region Saturday night, persist into Sunday, at least the first half, before moving out from the south to north late in the day or Sunday evening. Rainfall will mainly be on the lighter side totaling 0.25" to 0.50". Monday is trending dry.
Temperatures will run above normal through this period. Overnight lows Saturday night will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 40s to lower 60s. Lows Sunday night will range from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Sunday's highs will range from the lower 40s to upper 50s.
Winds will be fairly benign Saturday night and Sunday. They'll pick up from the west Sunday night and Monday and top out in the 10 to 20 mph range.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A series of high and low pressure systems move through the region next week though most of the week looks to be dry.
The period begins with high pressure building to the south of the region Monday night into Tuesday as the upper-level trough from the weekend deamplifies. This will result in a dry day with near normal temperatures.
For Tuesday night into Wednesday, guidance has remained consistent with the consensus that another wave of upper-level energy develops and re-amplifies the upper-level trough and begins to dig it out of the midwest and move it eastward towards the Eastern Seaboard. Associated with this re-deepening trough is a surface clipper system that quickly progresses out of the Great Lakes region and into the Mid-Atlantic during this timeframe. The passage of this system looks to provide a quick hit of precipitation for Tuesday night into Wednesday, the vast majority of which will be rain. Some mixed precip/snow looks to be possible at the highest elevations in the Poconos and northwest New Jersey Tuesday night with cooler temperatures.
The surface low then passes offshore and model guidance suggests that it will rapidly strengthen once it does so.
However, guidance continues to suggest that it will be far enough offshore to result in a minimal effect on the weather in our region. At this time, the main impacts look to be slightly below normal temperatures and breezy conditions, particularly closer to the shore.
Strong high pressure and near normal temperatures look to build back in for Thursday and into Friday. Some guidance is suggesting another upper-level trough/surface low may pass through at the end of next week but this remains highly uncertain at this time.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...MVFR/IFR ceilings lowering to LIFR at times. Areas of mostly light rain ends by about 06z, however some drizzle should occur for a time thereafter. The rain/drizzle and also some fog will result in visibility restrictions. Light and variable to locally calm winds overall. Low confidence regarding mostly the visibility restrictions related to fog.
Saturday...IFR, locally LIFR, ceilings improve to MVFR early, then should improve to VFR by about 18z. Some fog in the morning will result in visibility restrictions. Light and variable winds, becoming southwesterly around 5 knots. Low confidence regarding the timing of improving conditions.
Outlook...
Saturday night...VFR to start. Becoming MVFR as rain spreads across the terminals. Patchy fog possible after midnight. Light northeast winds. Moderate confidence.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR conditions expected, likely persisting throughout the day. Northeast winds around 10 kts. Moderate confidence.
Sunday night...Returning to VFR as the precipitation comes to an end.
Winds becoming westerly around 15 kts. Some stronger gusts possible. Moderate confidence.
Monday...Monday is trending drier. Showers have been removed. VFR conditions expected. Breezy with west winds around 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. Moderate confidence.
Monday night and Tuesday...VFR. Westerly winds around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with light rain. Winds 5-10 knots Tuesday night increasing to around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots on Wednesday. Low confidence.
MARINE
The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Saturday. Some rain tonight into early Saturday.
Outlook...
Saturday night and Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.
Sunday night and Monday...SCA conditions developing and continuing Monday.
Tuesday...SCA conditions not expected.
Wednesday...SCA conditions possible due to northwest to north wind gusts around 25 knots and seas up to 5 feet.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD | 6 mi | 70 min | S 4.1G | 48°F | 30.04 | |||
| 44043 - Patapsco, MD | 14 mi | 46 min | S 3.9G | 46°F | 47°F | 1 ft | ||
| FSNM2 | 18 mi | 64 min | 0G | 30.02 | ||||
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 19 mi | 64 min | 0G | 46°F | ||||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 21 mi | 64 min | 0G | 51°F | ||||
| CPVM2 | 23 mi | 64 min | 49°F | 49°F | ||||
| 44063 - Annapolis | 26 mi | 46 min | SSW 7.8G | 46°F | 49°F | |||
| APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD | 26 mi | 64 min | SE 2.9G | 47°F | 53°F | 30.03 | ||
| CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD | 26 mi | 64 min | WNW 1.9G | 45°F | 43°F | 30.05 | ||
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 30 mi | 52 min | SSE 8.9G | 48°F | 30.06 | |||
| DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE | 38 mi | 64 min | 0G | 46°F | 30.04 | |||
| RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE | 38 mi | 64 min | 45°F | 47°F | 30.02 | |||
| SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ | 43 mi | 64 min | SSE 5.1G | 46°F | 54°F | 30.05 | ||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 45 mi | 82 min | SSE 4.1 | 44°F | 30.04 | 44°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMTN MARTIN STATE,MD | 12 sm | 22 min | calm | 1/4 sm | Overcast | Mist | 45°F | 45°F | 100% | 30.04 |
Wind History from APG
(wind in knots)Worton Creek entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:39 AM EST 0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 10:06 AM EST 0.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:07 AM EST Moonset
Fri -- 03:52 PM EST -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:41 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 10:58 PM EST 1.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:39 AM EST 0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 10:06 AM EST 0.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:07 AM EST Moonset
Fri -- 03:52 PM EST -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:41 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 10:58 PM EST 1.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Worton Creek entrance, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.3 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| -0 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:58 AM EST -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:49 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 08:18 AM EST 0.49 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:06 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:06 AM EST Moonset
Fri -- 01:41 PM EST -0.43 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:04 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:43 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM EST 0.94 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:33 PM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 11:14 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:58 AM EST -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:49 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 08:18 AM EST 0.49 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:06 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:06 AM EST Moonset
Fri -- 01:41 PM EST -0.43 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:04 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:43 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 07:51 PM EST 0.94 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:33 PM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 11:14 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.7 |
| 1 am |
| -1 |
| 2 am |
| -1.1 |
| 3 am |
| -0.9 |
| 4 am |
| -0.7 |
| 5 am |
| -0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| -0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.1 |
Dover AFB, DE,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE