Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mendocino, CA

DISCUSSION
High pressure continues to fill in aloft this morning behind a passing upper level low. This has brought low clouds and fog to many of the interior valleys, and yesterday's rain has allowed dew points to be high enough this morning to mitigate temps falling low enough for frost formation. Temps trend up through Monday while clouds become more relegated to the coastline.

An upper level trough is forecast to approach the West Coast Tuesday, possibly bringing another round of rain midweek. Latest ensemble guidance has significantly shifted drier from previous runs, filling in the trough and decreasing the southerly extent and total amount of expected rainfall. Currently the NBM is showing a 40 percent chance of exceeding 1 inch in Del Norte county...with about a 40 percent chance of exceeding a quarter inch for Humboldt. There are lower probabilities and amounts expected farther south and east, with only a 25 percent chance of Ukiah seeing over a tenth. Long range ensemble clusters are indicating ridging developing late this week and next weekend over the west coast, with drier weather possible during this period.



AVIATION
The moisture from the rain yesterday will guarantee stratus for coastal airfields into this morning. Even some inland valley locations, like KUKI, could have IFR/LIFR ceiling conditions this morning. Expect IFR conditions for these areas with VFR elsewhere. Some improvement is expected later this morning with light northerly winds, although, the stratus my stick around to some degree for KCEC and KACV through the TAF period.
/kmz



MARINE
Light winds across the coastal waters continue to become more northerly early this morning as surface ridging moves in behind the frontal passage. This will bring a return of dry conditions and gentle north winds through early next week. The strongest winds will be downwind of Cape Mendocino with some isolated gusts approaching 20 kt. The next cold front will bring a quick round of southerly winds late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a return of moderate to fresh northerlies later in the week. Meanwhile, the sea state will settle to around 5 feet today with a large westerly swell system predicted to enter the coastal waters by Monday, building to around 10 feet around 15 seconds by Monday night, and gradually subside through the remainder of the week. Steeper waves will develop later in the week, as well, especially across the southern waters, in response to the increasing north winds. All in all, it looks like the next chance for a possible small craft advisory will possibly be on Monday as the sea state approaches 10 feet. Stay tuned. /kmz



BEACH HAZARDS
A westerly swell system building to around 10 feet at 15 seconds will bring a moderate sneaker wave threat to northwest California beaches on Monday. Beachgoers should exercise caution as large, unexpected waves can sweep much farther up the beach without warning. Make beach visits safer and avoid climbing rocks and jetties, avoid steep beaches like Big Lagoon and Black Sands Beach, and stay much farther back from the water. /kmz



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday evening for CAZ101-103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.