Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kingvale, CA

DISCUSSION

Fog and low stratus over northeast California and northern Washoe County, resultant of strong valley inversions, remain the biggest concerns for the near-term forecast as a persistent ridge remains the dominant synoptic feature. When these inversions will finally mix out is still the big question with this weekend's forecast. A trough dropping into the eastern Great Basin Sunday into Monday may be the answer, with clouds and winds increasing across northeast California and far northwest Nevada overnight tonight into Sunday.
Current satellite imagery is already revealing Honey Lake peaking through the low stratus deck as it slowly erodes. Expect further erosion of this cloud deck throughout the day as winds increase out of the northwest this afternoon and evening.

A dry cold front associated with this weak trough swings through the region on Sunday, bringing increased northwesterly breezes again Sunday afternoon and evening that will keep inversions mixed.
Temperatures plummet behind the front overnight Sunday, with lows bottoming out in the single digits to teens Monday morning. Highs will barely break 40 degrees even for the warmest valleys Monday afternoon. The ridge quickly builds back in over the west coast on Monday, but keeps brisk, dry north-northeast flow over our region through Tuesday.

Ensembles are strongly supporting a breakdown in the persistent ridge mid next week with the storm door remaining open through next weekend. Our first storm following this breakdown will be quite a weak one, as a trough digging into the Pacific Northwest late Wednesday into Thursday brings a 20-30% chance for light showers for portions of far northeast California and along the Sierra from the Tahoe Basin northward. Any accumulations will be little to none.
Cluster guidance continues to suggest the potential for a stronger storm with a more efficient moisture tap to impact the region Friday into Saturday next week. Current NBM guidance suggests 0.5-1" of liquid along the Sierra crest from this storm, equating to about 6- 10 inches of snow. Liquid totals taper east of the Sierra crest, but guidance indicates a 40-60% chance for greater than a tenth of an inch for communities along the US-395 corridor. Note that variance in storm track in timing in models keep confidence in exact details low at this time. Regardless, expect a more active pattern to settle in this weekend, bringing some flavor of wetter conditions with increased winds. Whitlam

AVIATION

Valley inversions still in place this morning keeps haze with minor reductions in slantwise visibility a concern for far western NV terminals. Inversions are expected to weaken through this weekend as a weak inside slider brings northerly breezes and increasing clouds across the region. VFR conditions with generally light winds will prevail into early next week, although increasing NE-E FL100/ridge top winds will produce increased turbulence near/west of the Sierra crest from late Sunday night through Monday night.

A low stratus deck continues over the Honey Lake Valley this morning, but is slowly eroding. Fog is less likely to develop again overnight, with only a 20% chance. Whitlam

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.