Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Linwood, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Dangerous wind chill values will continue through Monday morning.

2. Temperatures moderating to right around average for the middle of this week. A warm front may bring some light wintry precipitation to parts of the region on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous wind chill values will continue through Monday morning.

Winds are gradually diminishing fairly quickly this evening, and then will range from 5 to 10 mph tonight.

Broad Arctic high pressure will move overhead tonight before continuing offshore on Monday. Due to how cold it will continue to be, even a light breeze will be enough to continue to result in dangerous wind chill values. Lows will be in the single digits throughout the area tonight and when adding in the wind, wind chill values as low as -20 in the southern Poconos and as low as -10 to -15 elsewhere are expected.

As a result, the Extreme Cold Warning for Carbon and Monroe counties remains in effect through Monday morning and Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for the rest of the area through 10 am Monday.

Heights aloft begin to rise on Monday, and warm air advection will be underway. Highs will mostly be in the upper 20s to around 30.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures moderating to right around average for the middle of this week. A warm front may bring some light wintry precipitation to parts of the region on Tuesday.

In the upper-levels, we see height rises as ridging builds into the region Monday night into Tuesday. Our arctic high pressure system will be shifting to the south and moving more offshore during this timeframe. At the surface, we see a warm front approaching from the south and moving through the area on Tuesday. This will result in warm air advection which allows temperatures to moderate a bit towards midweek. As a result, there will be thawing taking place each day through at least Wednesday. Low temperatures however will drop below freezing each night resulting in thaw and refreeze cycles, with lows Tuesday night looking like the milder night due to southwest winds ahead of a cold front. For the warm front, there is the potential for some light wintry precipitation Tuesday into Tuesday night. Overall, this timeframe continues to look drier with PoPs at slight chance to chance (20-25%).

A cold front moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning resulting in some cold air advection and a wind shift from the southwest to the west. Our colder air does not look to be fully reinforced until later in the day Wednesday as a second cold front moves through leading to more cold air advection and winds increasing out of the west-northwest. Due to this colder air filtering in, it turns colder for the second half of the week, but not to the magnitude of the arctic outbreak we saw this weekend.
Looking ahead, our next system may arrive next weekend bringing the potential for some rain and/or wintry precipitation, but there is a large amount of uncertainty given this being towards the end of the long term forecast period.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after between 02z and 04z. High confidence.

Monday...VFR. W/NW winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Monday Night...VFR. W/NW winds 5 kt or less. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR ceilings lower.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR overall. Northwest winds gusts to around 20 knots possible.

Friday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

MARINE
Northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 knots will continue through much of tonight. As a result, Small Craft Advisories and Freezing Spray Advisories are now in effect through this period. Even as winds diminish late tonight, seas look to remain elevated above 5 feet through the morning hours on Monday, resulting in the SCA continuing into daytime Monday.

Regarding the river/bay ice...Ice continues across area bay waters and inland estuaries. This includes, but is not limited to the Delaware estuary. On rivers, the ice has grown in thickness enough to cause some restrictions in the flow. Per satellite imagery and ice analysis data, the Delaware River is mostly ice covered from the entrance to Delaware Bay northward, or upstream, to at least Washington Crossing.

The most common ways river ice can break up is either through a thermal or mechanical means. We would like to see temperatures rise into the 40s for a few days, but that's not expected over the next few days. Some areas though are forecast to get to around 40 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Significant rainfall, producing river rises, can also break up ice but that is not in the forecast this week.

As a result, ice will continue to expand before it contracts, especially with this ongoing deep freeze this weekend. For this week, there may be a pause in the ice growth during the daylight hours as temperatures warm above freezing, however temperatures at night will continue to support expansion.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines are anticipated.

Thursday...A period of near Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

Friday...No marine headlines are anticipated.

CLIMATE
Record cold high temperatures for February 8th were set at Mount Pocono (MPO), Allentown (ABE), Georgetown (GED), and Atlantic City Airport (ACY). The record was tied at Reading (RDG).

Record Low Temperatures February 9 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) -12/1934 AC Airport (ACY) -2/1967 AC Marina (55N) -9/1934 Georgetown (GED) 0/1967 Mount Pocono (MPO) -25/1934 Philadelphia (PHL) -11/1934 Reading (RDG) -11/1934 Trenton (TTN) -14/1934 Wilmington (ILG) -15/1934

EQUIPMENT
The Fort Dix radar (KDIX) is out of service through Tuesday and perhaps longer depending on how quickly replacement parts arrive.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for PAZ060>062- 070-071-101>106.
Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for PAZ054-055.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NJZ001- 007>010-012>027.
DE...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for DEZ001>004.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for MDZ012-015- 019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ430-431- 450>455.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ430-431- 450>455.