Hettick, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hettick, IL

April 16, 2024 6:16 AM CDT (11:16 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM
Moonrise 11:44 AM   Moonset 2:13 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hettick, IL
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Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 160837 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 337 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather will threaten the region today, with particular focus in northern/north-central Missouri and west-central Illinois. Further south, the threat exists but is more conditional.

- Large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will all be possible where stronger thunderstorms develop, and the area mentioned above will have potential for very large hail (up to 2.00") and a strong tornado or two.

- Following another round of showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday, cooler and drier conditions will take hold through the weekend.

SHORT TERM
(Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A well-defined warm front draped across the Mid-Mississippi Valley is slowly advancing north. The warm front extends from a mature cyclone in the central High Plains, with a very long dryline extending from northwest Nebraska to Texas. On the warm side of the boundary, MLCAPE values across the bi-state region are currently analyzed at a meager 500-750 J/kg, and well-capped by persistent ridging aloft and 850mb warm air advection. Aloft, the cutoff low ejecting into the Front Range continues to promote diffluent flow into the Plains. The questions surrounding the current lack of resident instability and timing for favorable lifting mechanisms aloft play prominently in the potential for severe weather today.

It is expected that the front will continue a march northward today as the low approaches and helps it advance. As the low approaches, sustained winds and gusts will steadily strengthen. It is still very unlikely (less than 10% chance) that we realize Wind Advisory criteria values in any continuous area, largely owing to limited mixing in the presence of an inversion. That said, non-convective winds will be gusty throughout the day. The region will be within the open warm sector of the surface low, but instability will be slow to recover into the early afternoon. The more impressive instability will be relegated closer to a moisture plume ahead of the dryline, which will take some time to reach our forecast area.
The cutoff shortwave will enter the Missouri Valley late this morning into the early afternoon, sending a wave of stronger PVA to trigger convection across central/north-central Missouri and begin our threat for severe thunderstorms. At this stage, most guidance indicates some degree of capping and marginal instability (750-1000 J/kg). However, that parameter space coupled with deep-layer shear of 50-65kts, will certainly pose a severe weather threat. The potential is highest in northern and north-central Missouri and in west-central Illinois, where mid-level ascent will be strongest.
Further south, while ascent still exists, it is weaker and may not overcome the limited available instability. The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook appropriately highlights the area of not only the best potential for severe weather, but the highest threat for significant severe weather, in its Enhanced Risk area. The Slight Risk area (the rest of the region) will still see a threat, but it is more conditional and arguably more limited in potential intensity.

Deep-layer shear vectors would indicate discrete supercells at least initially, and the modest CIN may help keep the convection that can develop discrete for longer. There isn't much support behind these cells growing upscale in the absence of a boundary near the surface.
Model soundings still depict concerning hodograph curvature and backed surface winds that would indicate a tornado potential that maximizes across northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. With increasing effective inflow shear and SRH, potential exists for a strong tornado or two during the mid/late afternoon as mixed-layer instability increases and LCLs remain low. Damaging wind is also a threat at this point, but does not show a higher-end potential.
Large hail may also occur with the supercells, but poor mid-level lapse rates and instability distribution will limit most hailstone sizes.

The threats for larger hail (possibly up to 2.00") and damaging wind increase in the late afternoon, with a lingering tornado threat (though it becomes more uncertain as the wind profile gradually becomes more unidirectional). That said, mid-level ascent deteriorates with time, which leaves not much beyond the weak dryline to promote new convection. While earlier guidance feature two distinct rounds of convection: one with the mid-level ascent and one along the dryline, I'm growing doubtful that the second trigger will have the force needed to cause a second round of severe weather in the late afternoon/early evening as the dryline weakens and diffuses. That said, if it can manage to spark thunderstorms, they will exist in an unstable environment ripe for large to very-large hail, damaging wind, and at least some tornado threat. The best potential for this exists in the northernmost parts of Missouri and western Illinois. The severe weather potential gradually wanes after sunset as instability dissipates, and by 9-10pm, the threat should end.

By sunrise Wednesday, dry west/southwest winds will exist across Missouri and Illinois. Temperatures will remain (low 70s to low 80s)
as a result, but not like what we've seen the last few days. The dry west wind has potential to drop relative humidity values into the upper 20s during the peak heating of the afternoon in southeast Missouri in the Ozarks. While winds approach 15mph in the early afternoon, they will be weakening as the low departs. As such, elevated fire danger is not forecast at this time, but that scenario will be monitored.

MRB

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Another trough drops southwest from Canada into the northern Great Plains late Wednesday, helping the cutoff shortwave across the Upper Mississippi Valley eject into the Great Lakes region. The result of this wave interaction is broad, anomalous longwave troughing spanning the northern half of the central CONUS. Closer to home, the ejection will help advance a weak cold front into the region. Very little in the way of cooler air will accompany this front, but the boundary will stall somewhere in the forecast area amidst near-zonal flow aloft.

A subtle shortwave impulse is evident in deterministic global-scale models, which will likely (80% chance) interact with the front to force precipitation. There is some degree of uncertainty as to whether instability will be in place when forcing maximizes Thursday afternoon and evening, which translates to a severe weather potential. Some guidance has weakly-capped instability exceeding 1500 J/kg, while others have nothing at all. Which scenario comes to fruition depends greatly on where the front ends up. Seeing as the high-end potential is a noteworthy outlier, we are choosing not to message the SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook at this time. That said, if the more unstable solution becomes plausible, strong to severe thunderstorms would be a concern along and south of I-44 in Missouri and I-64 in Illinois.

Regardless of how it occurs, this impulse will shunt the front (and higher precipitation chances) further south. This will also promote cooler weather across a majority of the region from Friday into the weekend. The only concern that's evident from then until low precipitation chances return to the forecast early next week is the threat for frost. That potential maximizes Saturday night across northeast Missouri, however winds don't look very light during that time and may inhibit frost formation.

MRB

AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

With lack of forcing along the warm front that is slowly lifting northward overnight, little in the way of additional storms expected to develop, thus kept all TAFs dry through the overnight hours.

Main round of activity will fire up after 15z Tuesday and slide east across the region through the afternoon and early evening hours. Second round with a dry line, looking less likely per the latest CAMs, so TAFs are dry after 00z-03z Wednesday. Otherwise, southeast winds will veer to the south by mid morning on Tuesday and pickup with gusts near 35kts at times.

Byrd

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KLF0 sm21 minSE 1010 smClear64°F59°F83%29.88
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