Hettick, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hettick, IL

June 23, 2024 12:30 AM CDT (05:30 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM
Moonrise 9:33 PM   Moonset 5:48 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hettick, IL
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Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 230404 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1104 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-75%) late this evening into the early overnight hours in parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois along a cold front. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few of the strongest storms may be capable of producing hail to the size of quarters and/or wind gusts to 60 mph.

- Above average temperatures will continue through Tuesday, and will likely peak on either Monday or Tuesday when heat index values are forecast to reach into the 100-105+F range.

- Another cold front is forecast to move through the bi-state region Tuesday night, bringing the best chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms in several weeks. Behind this front, a brief (~2 days) period of cooler temperatures is expected but exactly how cool is uncertain.



SHORT TERM
(Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A cold front is currently located across the mid-Missouri and Upper Mississippi River Valleys as of 1900 UTC. Radar and GOES-16 satellite imagery shows convective initiation has begun along this boundary. The cold front is not expected to reach into our area until about 0300 UTC. By this time, the storms will be moving into a less favorable environment than where they formed, both in terms of instability as well as deep-layer shear. Probabilities at 0300 UTC on the HRRR for at least 1000 J/kg of CAPE are about 40% in parts of northeast Missouri before gradually fading during the overnight hours. Deep-layer shear also looks to be on the weaker side, on the order of about 25 knots. Given this environment, would not expect organized severe weather in our area, but a few of storms may be capable of producing hail to the size of quarters and/or wind gusts to 60 mph. The best window for any strong-severe storms appears to be from about 10PM-1AM in parts of northeast Missouri and west- central Illinois.

The coverage of storms should also gradually wane overnight tonight, as the surface convergence weakens. The activity should become more isolated-scattered in nature, leaving most of the area with little/no beneficial rainfall.

Behind the front, there is not much of an air mass change. In fact, 850-hPa temperatures actually climb about 1C. However, mixing is not nearly as deep. Instead of of mixing to 800-850 hPa like this afternoon, the top of the mixed layer on Sunday afternoon is closer to 875-925 hPa. Highs on Sunday for most locations should be about 3- 4F cooler than today, mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints (relative humidity) values are also expected to gradually lessen through the afternoon thanks to persistent northwest winds around 10 mph advecting drier air into the region.

Clear and calm conditions are forecast Sunday night as a weak surface high slides across the bi-state area. Low temperatures were cooled down slightly from the previous forecast given the pattern (clear sky/calm winds) into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Some mid 60s are possible in the eastern Ozarks on the cooler end, while low 70s are more likely in/around the urban heat island of metropolitan St. Louis.

Gosselin

LONG TERM
(Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

(Monday - Tuesday Night)

Increasing heat and humidity continues to be the main focus for early next week. There is higher confidence in Monday's temperatures due to the building mid/upper level ridge, which should keep the area dry. While there is a subtle surface trough moving slowly northeast across parts of the area, subsidence aloft associated with the rising heights mentioned above and some capping should keep it dry. High temperatures in the 90s are forecast, but dewpoints (humidity) will be on the increase. This is particularly true along/behind the surface trough mentioned above where dewpoints are expected to climb into the low 70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the mid 90s are forecast to yield heat index values of 100-105F across parts of central and southeast Missouri. A magnitude (105+F) heat advisory is possible in these areas, especially if temperatures and/or dewpoints are ever so slightly higher. If the trough is a bit faster, this area of higher heat index values could expand Monday afternoon further to the north and east.

Forecast uncertainty increases beginning Tuesday as the mid/upper level ridge weakens overhead. Deterministic guidance also suggests a midlevel shortwave moving east/southeast out of the mid-Missouri Valley. The ECMWF is about 6 hours faster with this shortwave, generating convection by late Tuesday morning. This in turn keeps daytime temperatures a lot cooler than the GFS. This scenario does not look that particularly likely however, with only about 25% of the EPS members showing this scenario. What is more likely is that the area will stay dry during much of the day, with the slower shortwave helping to initiate convection along a cold front Tuesday evening. This would mean more sunshine and another hot day with highs in the mid to upper 90s. The low 70s dewpoints also should be areawide, so more widespread heat index values of 100-105F are forecast, with 105-108F readings most likely across parts of east- central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest Illinois. A magnitude heat advisory would be warranted if confidence in these conditions increases over the next 24-48 hours.

While there are timing differences with the midlevel shortwave and associated cold frontal passage, this next chance of showers and thunderstorms does have more to work with than storms tonight. The midlevel shortwave trough provides large-scale ascent, convergence along the surface cold front is fairly strong throughout the night, and low-level moisture convergence is strong (30-40 knots). In other words, this definitely appears to be the best chance for widespread convection (and beneficial rainfall) our area has seen in some 2-3 weeks. There also appears to be at least a slightly better chance for strong to severe convection as well, with 50-70% probabilities for >2000 J/kg of SBCAPE at 0300 UTC Wednesday on the GEFS. Deep- layer shear is marginal, generally 20-25 knots, but the higher amount of instability (and forcing for ascent throughout the column)
suggests an increased threat for severe weather. This is also supported by the day 4 CSU machine-learning guidance.

(Wednesday - Thursday Night)

While there is high confidence that the cold front will clear the area by late Wednesday and usher in some cooler temperatures, exactly how cool remains a question mark. Deterministic guidance is a bit cooler with the incoming air mass than their respective ensemble means, which leads me to think we are headed back "closer to normal" than a more significant change. Highs are most likely to be in the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday and Thursday. Humidity levels will start off on the high end Wednesday, but dewpoints should gradually lower through the day. By Thursday, comfortable humidity levels are expected areawide as a surface ridge of high pressure moves across the region. Lows Wednesday/Thursday night also should be closer to normal, generally in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

(Friday - Next Saturday)

Temperatures are likely to warm back up well-above normal heading into next weekend as mid/upper level heights rise and 850-hPa temperatures once again approach +20C. However, confidence in specific temperatures is low. The synoptic pattern with an elongated west-east oriented mid/upper level ridge just to our south suggests subtle shortwave troughs may be enough to initiate thunderstorms during this period. If thunderstorms are widespread with convective debris clouds, high temperatures may end up at least several degrees cooler than forecast. The spread on the NBM 25th/75th percentiles is quite large, generally on the order of 6-8+F which helps illustrate this uncertainty with high temperatures during this period.

Gosselin

AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A cold front continue to make slow southeast progress through northern Missouri, which is expected to impact KUIN just after midnight. Impacts do not look nearly as great as the potential that was possible earlier in the day, though a localized pocket of heavy rain and brief visibility reductions could result in temporary MVFR conditions.

The front will continue to move southeast through tonight with showers and weakening thunderstorms along the boundary. The extent of the activity does not look particularly impressive, nor does it look intense. Latest trends look more optimistic with mainly VFR conditions expected. There could be a brief, localized pocket of MVFR visibilities, but cloud bases look to largely remain above 4k feet. As the front clears, clouds will scatter and clear out through the day Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the period with northwesterly flow going light and variable late Sunday evening.

Maples

CLIMATE
Issued at 221 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

With hot temperatures forecast next week, here are some of the daily high temperature records:

MON JUN 24 TUE JUN 25 ST LOUIS 102 in 1988 102 in 1954 COLUMBIA 103 in 1988 102 in 1988 QUINCY 99 in 1988 102 in 1931



LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KLF0 sm15 minS 1010 smClear81°F64°F58%29.83
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Central Illinois, IL,




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