Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hettick, IL
December 8, 2023 11:56 PM CST (05:56 UTC)
Sunrise 7:07AM Sunset 4:37PM Moonrise 2:33AM Moonset 1:52PM
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 090450 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1050 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers, a few thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a cold front passing through the region this evening, continuing eastward overnight into early Saturday morning while decreasing in coverage. Most locations will receive less than 0.1" of rainfall but there is a 60 to 90 chance of over 0.25 in northeastern MO and west-central IL.
- A strong thunderstorm or two is possible in central and eastern MO this evening with gusty winds and small hail, but the probability of any severe thunderstorms is less than 20 percent.
- Other than a day of slightly below average temperatures on Sunday, near to above average temperatures will prevail through next week.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
Deep southwesterly flow continues to transport moisture into the region ahead of a cold front, stretching from southeastern KS through west-central MO into southeastern IA as of 20z. So far, this evolution has only resulted in an increase in clouds. But, as large- scale ascent increases early this evening ahead of an upper-level shortwave trough rounding a longer wavelength trough over the Great Plains, showers will develop in the next several hours and increase in coverage, especially along the cold front.
Greatest coverage of showers will be between 02 and 06z across central, northeastern MO and west-central IL, coincident with enhanced frontal convergence in proximity to an open wave surface cyclone tracking northeastward along the front. There is a 15 to 20 percent chance of embedded thunderstorms as well, supported by anywhere from 150 to 750 J/kg of MUCAPE advertised by model guidance. There is still a signal for a narrow wedge of marginal surface-based instability to exist along and immediately ahead of the front across central into eastern MO, but there is some uncertainty in the magnitude of this instability. CAM and short-term model guidance depict a range of SBCAPE from below 100 to locally approaching 500 J/kg. Given that 50 to 70 kt of deep-layer wind shear and 30 to 40 kt of 0 to 3 kt wind shear will be present, at least organization of showers and thunderstorms into a broken line is expected but the amount of surface-based instability will determine whether thunderstorms are capable of any damaging wind gusts or not. But the current, most likely scenario is that a thunderstorm or two will be strong with gusty winds and small hail in those areas.
Additional scattered showers are anticipated ahead of the front within broad low to mid-level WAA, but as the front continues eastward through eastern and southeastern MO into southwestern IL overnight, coverage of showers and any thunderstorms will decrease as the shortwave trough departs and large-scale ascent decreases.
Therefore, most areas will receive less than 0.1" of rainfall but there is a 60 to 90 percent chance of over 0.25" in northeastern MO into west-central IL, per the HRRR.
By 14z Saturday, the cold front will exit the CWA to the east along with nearly all remaining showers, with the expectation for there to be no post-frontal rain through that time. Breaking of clouds should also occur through the morning; however, clouds may increase during the afternoon and evening as the axis of the main upper-level trough and perhaps a subtle shortwave trough pass. The HRRR and global ensemble model guidance also support a 20 to 30 percent chance of light rain in southeastern MO and southwestern IL during that time as wave of post-frontal rain attempts to extend northwestward, but far greater probabilities exist well southeast of the CWA.
Otherwise, high temps on Saturday will be cooler than today, albeit still above average as the core of the cooler post-frontal airmass does not arrive until the evening.
Pfahler
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
As the upper-level trough will be exiting the Mid-Mississippi River Valley height rises aloft will favor a surface ridge to move in Sunday afternoon. Deep northwesterly flow with the exiting upper- level trough and approaching surface ridge will favor cool, slightly below normal temperatures and dry conditions on Sunday. As this surface ridge moves across the area by Monday, low-level southerly flow will promote near to slightly above normal temperatures to start the work week. The upper-level pattern will become more zonal through the first half of the week.
Ensemble guidance members are in agreement that a surface low pressure system near the Hudson Bay in Canada will extend an associated weak cold front through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday, pushing the surface ridge east. Given the lack of low- level moisture, rain is not forecast. Confidence in this dry forecast is further increased given that 90% of ensemble members maintain no precipitation. Temperatures on Tuesday are expected to remain near normal across the northern portions of the CWA and above normal temperatures across the southern portions of the CWA. These temperature differences will be largely due to the timing of the passing cold front. Through mid-week, there is medium to moderate confidence (50-70%) in these slightly above normal temperatures given that the lower quartile of the NBM members are at or a degree below climatological normal.
There is consensus among ensemble members that slight upper-level ridging will begin to build back in by mid-week. At the surface, high pressure will move into the region and continue to promote near to above normal temperatures for the rest of the forecast period.
Despite deterministic guidances signaling vorticity maximums moving through the CWA during this timeframe, the surface high pressure will help limit low level moisture moving into region and keep precipitation chances very low.
MMG
AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
Cold front is beginning to move through the forecast area. It should move through KCOU, KJEF, and KUIN by 06z Saturday and then through St. Louis metro area by 10z Saturday with winds veering to the northwest. Otherwise, showers and a few storms should exit KCOU and KJEF with just vicinity showers, but kept predominate rain at KUIN through 08z Saturday. As for KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS rain will be between 06z and 10z Saturday.
As for ceilings, MVFR cigs will lift and scatter out from west to east between 10z and 12z Saturday. Gusty northwest winds will diminish by daybreak and remain that way through the rest of the forecast period, except at KUIN, KCOU and KJEF where winds will become gusty once again by Saturday afternoon.
Byrd
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1050 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers, a few thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a cold front passing through the region this evening, continuing eastward overnight into early Saturday morning while decreasing in coverage. Most locations will receive less than 0.1" of rainfall but there is a 60 to 90 chance of over 0.25 in northeastern MO and west-central IL.
- A strong thunderstorm or two is possible in central and eastern MO this evening with gusty winds and small hail, but the probability of any severe thunderstorms is less than 20 percent.
- Other than a day of slightly below average temperatures on Sunday, near to above average temperatures will prevail through next week.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
Deep southwesterly flow continues to transport moisture into the region ahead of a cold front, stretching from southeastern KS through west-central MO into southeastern IA as of 20z. So far, this evolution has only resulted in an increase in clouds. But, as large- scale ascent increases early this evening ahead of an upper-level shortwave trough rounding a longer wavelength trough over the Great Plains, showers will develop in the next several hours and increase in coverage, especially along the cold front.
Greatest coverage of showers will be between 02 and 06z across central, northeastern MO and west-central IL, coincident with enhanced frontal convergence in proximity to an open wave surface cyclone tracking northeastward along the front. There is a 15 to 20 percent chance of embedded thunderstorms as well, supported by anywhere from 150 to 750 J/kg of MUCAPE advertised by model guidance. There is still a signal for a narrow wedge of marginal surface-based instability to exist along and immediately ahead of the front across central into eastern MO, but there is some uncertainty in the magnitude of this instability. CAM and short-term model guidance depict a range of SBCAPE from below 100 to locally approaching 500 J/kg. Given that 50 to 70 kt of deep-layer wind shear and 30 to 40 kt of 0 to 3 kt wind shear will be present, at least organization of showers and thunderstorms into a broken line is expected but the amount of surface-based instability will determine whether thunderstorms are capable of any damaging wind gusts or not. But the current, most likely scenario is that a thunderstorm or two will be strong with gusty winds and small hail in those areas.
Additional scattered showers are anticipated ahead of the front within broad low to mid-level WAA, but as the front continues eastward through eastern and southeastern MO into southwestern IL overnight, coverage of showers and any thunderstorms will decrease as the shortwave trough departs and large-scale ascent decreases.
Therefore, most areas will receive less than 0.1" of rainfall but there is a 60 to 90 percent chance of over 0.25" in northeastern MO into west-central IL, per the HRRR.
By 14z Saturday, the cold front will exit the CWA to the east along with nearly all remaining showers, with the expectation for there to be no post-frontal rain through that time. Breaking of clouds should also occur through the morning; however, clouds may increase during the afternoon and evening as the axis of the main upper-level trough and perhaps a subtle shortwave trough pass. The HRRR and global ensemble model guidance also support a 20 to 30 percent chance of light rain in southeastern MO and southwestern IL during that time as wave of post-frontal rain attempts to extend northwestward, but far greater probabilities exist well southeast of the CWA.
Otherwise, high temps on Saturday will be cooler than today, albeit still above average as the core of the cooler post-frontal airmass does not arrive until the evening.
Pfahler
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
As the upper-level trough will be exiting the Mid-Mississippi River Valley height rises aloft will favor a surface ridge to move in Sunday afternoon. Deep northwesterly flow with the exiting upper- level trough and approaching surface ridge will favor cool, slightly below normal temperatures and dry conditions on Sunday. As this surface ridge moves across the area by Monday, low-level southerly flow will promote near to slightly above normal temperatures to start the work week. The upper-level pattern will become more zonal through the first half of the week.
Ensemble guidance members are in agreement that a surface low pressure system near the Hudson Bay in Canada will extend an associated weak cold front through the Mid-Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday, pushing the surface ridge east. Given the lack of low- level moisture, rain is not forecast. Confidence in this dry forecast is further increased given that 90% of ensemble members maintain no precipitation. Temperatures on Tuesday are expected to remain near normal across the northern portions of the CWA and above normal temperatures across the southern portions of the CWA. These temperature differences will be largely due to the timing of the passing cold front. Through mid-week, there is medium to moderate confidence (50-70%) in these slightly above normal temperatures given that the lower quartile of the NBM members are at or a degree below climatological normal.
There is consensus among ensemble members that slight upper-level ridging will begin to build back in by mid-week. At the surface, high pressure will move into the region and continue to promote near to above normal temperatures for the rest of the forecast period.
Despite deterministic guidances signaling vorticity maximums moving through the CWA during this timeframe, the surface high pressure will help limit low level moisture moving into region and keep precipitation chances very low.
MMG
AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023
Cold front is beginning to move through the forecast area. It should move through KCOU, KJEF, and KUIN by 06z Saturday and then through St. Louis metro area by 10z Saturday with winds veering to the northwest. Otherwise, showers and a few storms should exit KCOU and KJEF with just vicinity showers, but kept predominate rain at KUIN through 08z Saturday. As for KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS rain will be between 06z and 10z Saturday.
As for ceilings, MVFR cigs will lift and scatter out from west to east between 10z and 12z Saturday. Gusty northwest winds will diminish by daybreak and remain that way through the rest of the forecast period, except at KUIN, KCOU and KJEF where winds will become gusty once again by Saturday afternoon.
Byrd
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
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