Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hettick, IL
December 2, 2023 4:00 PM CST (22:00 UTC)
Sunrise 7:02AM Sunset 4:38PM Moonrise 9:33PM Moonset 11:38AM
Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLSX 022027 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 227 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- Much of the area will see light rain tonight (up to 90% chance)
and again Sunday night (up to 50% chance)
- Near normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday with high confidence (90% +) in a warm up to above normal temperatures Thursday onward.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023
Water vapor imagery is showing that an upper-level trough is beginning to make its way into the central CONUS. A shortwave trough will round the main trough and bring a chance (40-90%) of widespread light rainfall this evening through Sunday morning. Associated with the shortwave will be a surface low pressure system that will trek southwest to northeast at the same time. As the surface low pressure pushes northeast, it will intersect with an area of ample low level moisture. This ample low level moisture is evident in the thick stratus that has impacted the region today as well as model soundings indicating saturated low levels. The surface low pressure is forecasted to bisect the CWA with the greatest forcing being east and north of the surface low where increased low level moisture convergence and a vorticity maximum will exist. Thus, locations around and north of I-70 will see the greatest chance (60-90%) for light rain tonight into Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts in excess of 0.1 inch are likely where more persistent light rain falls. Over 80% of ensemble guidance members have rainfall totals greater than 0.1 inch.
Given that this precipitation is falling at night when the air is naturally more cold, a light rain snow mix is possible where temperatures are able to drop near or below freezing. This is forecast to be confined only to far northeastern Missouri. No impacts are expected as only a light rain/snow mix is forecast and air and ground temperatures are marginal. Low temperatures elsewhere are forecast to be in the mid to upper 30s.
Behind this shortwave will be a brief push of drier low level air across southern Missouri and southern Illinois. This will allow for there to be a break from the persistent cloudiness for mainly the southern parts of the CWA on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday, where there is more sunshine, are forecast in the 50s while where cloud cover will remain more persistent (northern Missouri and west- central Illinois) high temperatures are forecast in the 40s.
Otherwise, most of daytime on Sunday will be dry.
By Sunday evening, the upper-level trough will be over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Another shortwave and vorticity maximum will round the trough and bring another chance (20-50%) of light precipitation Sunday night into early Monday morning. A surface low pressure system, associated with this shortwave, will trek across the CWA from northwest to southeast. Precipitation amounts are forecasted to be less than what will be seen tonight for most of the area. This is because the previous (tonight's weather system) will have "used up" much of the available low level moisture.
Northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois are expected to see more persistent light rainfall. Most of the area will see rainfall amounts less than 0.1 inch but areas like northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois have a higher probability of seeing amounts greater than 0.1 inch due to more persistent light rainfall. To further add confidence to these higher amounts in the aforementioned area, approximately 70% of ensemble guidance members have a swath of greater than 0.1 inch.
Similar to tonight's weather system, the Sunday night into early Monday morning system will be during the overnight hours. Low temperatures CWA wide are forecast to be in the 30s with some areas across northern Missouri dropping below 30 degrees. Where temperatures do drop below freezing, some light rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out, however this will largely be confined to northern Missouri. No impacted are excepted given the light nature of the precipitation.
MMG/Kimble
LONG TERM
(Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023
Ensemble guidance is in consensus that the upper-level trough will be slowing making its shift to the east of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley by Monday. As it does so, deep northwesterly flow will take over the region. Amid the northwesterly flow, a shortwave trough and an associated vorticity maximum will round the trough and reach the CWA late Monday evening. There is consensus among ensemble members that an associated surface low pressure system will trek north and northeast of the CWA. The track of this surface low pressure system will hinder the precipitation chances with this system for our CWA, with the precipitation being farther to the northeast. Confidence in this dry forecast is further increased as 80-90% of ensemble members have no precipitation. Only some increased cloud cover due to an increase in low- to mid- level moisture is expected as the shortwave makes its way across the region.
There remains consensus among ensemble guidance that the upper-level trough will finally be well east of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday as upper-level ridging builds into the area from the west. Height rises in the upper-levels will favor a warm up to above normal temperatures by the end of the work week. Confidence in these above normal temperatures is high (90%+). The lower quartile for high temperatures Thursday and Friday is a least 10 degrees above climatological normal high temperatures for early December. This further increases confidence in this occurring.
MMG/Kimble
AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023
Impacts will persist at all terminals through the duration of the TAF period. Low stratus will produce IFR/low MVFR and continue through the overnight hours. This evening and overnight, a surface low pressure system will push across the region southwest to northeast and bring light rain to the area. Light rain will lower visibilities slightly with KUIN expected to have the lowest visibilities and more persistent rain. Confidence remains low that more persistent light rain will directly impact KCOU, KJEF, and the St. Louis Metropolitan terminals after the initial "push" of light rain, therefore decided to keep VCSH through early Sunday morning at the aforementioned terminals.
Winds are expected to be light through the early evening and then increase as the low pressure system moves across the area. Winds will then become more southerly on Sunday.
MMG/Byrd
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 227 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- Much of the area will see light rain tonight (up to 90% chance)
and again Sunday night (up to 50% chance)
- Near normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday with high confidence (90% +) in a warm up to above normal temperatures Thursday onward.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023
Water vapor imagery is showing that an upper-level trough is beginning to make its way into the central CONUS. A shortwave trough will round the main trough and bring a chance (40-90%) of widespread light rainfall this evening through Sunday morning. Associated with the shortwave will be a surface low pressure system that will trek southwest to northeast at the same time. As the surface low pressure pushes northeast, it will intersect with an area of ample low level moisture. This ample low level moisture is evident in the thick stratus that has impacted the region today as well as model soundings indicating saturated low levels. The surface low pressure is forecasted to bisect the CWA with the greatest forcing being east and north of the surface low where increased low level moisture convergence and a vorticity maximum will exist. Thus, locations around and north of I-70 will see the greatest chance (60-90%) for light rain tonight into Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts in excess of 0.1 inch are likely where more persistent light rain falls. Over 80% of ensemble guidance members have rainfall totals greater than 0.1 inch.
Given that this precipitation is falling at night when the air is naturally more cold, a light rain snow mix is possible where temperatures are able to drop near or below freezing. This is forecast to be confined only to far northeastern Missouri. No impacts are expected as only a light rain/snow mix is forecast and air and ground temperatures are marginal. Low temperatures elsewhere are forecast to be in the mid to upper 30s.
Behind this shortwave will be a brief push of drier low level air across southern Missouri and southern Illinois. This will allow for there to be a break from the persistent cloudiness for mainly the southern parts of the CWA on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday, where there is more sunshine, are forecast in the 50s while where cloud cover will remain more persistent (northern Missouri and west- central Illinois) high temperatures are forecast in the 40s.
Otherwise, most of daytime on Sunday will be dry.
By Sunday evening, the upper-level trough will be over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Another shortwave and vorticity maximum will round the trough and bring another chance (20-50%) of light precipitation Sunday night into early Monday morning. A surface low pressure system, associated with this shortwave, will trek across the CWA from northwest to southeast. Precipitation amounts are forecasted to be less than what will be seen tonight for most of the area. This is because the previous (tonight's weather system) will have "used up" much of the available low level moisture.
Northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois are expected to see more persistent light rainfall. Most of the area will see rainfall amounts less than 0.1 inch but areas like northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois have a higher probability of seeing amounts greater than 0.1 inch due to more persistent light rainfall. To further add confidence to these higher amounts in the aforementioned area, approximately 70% of ensemble guidance members have a swath of greater than 0.1 inch.
Similar to tonight's weather system, the Sunday night into early Monday morning system will be during the overnight hours. Low temperatures CWA wide are forecast to be in the 30s with some areas across northern Missouri dropping below 30 degrees. Where temperatures do drop below freezing, some light rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out, however this will largely be confined to northern Missouri. No impacted are excepted given the light nature of the precipitation.
MMG/Kimble
LONG TERM
(Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023
Ensemble guidance is in consensus that the upper-level trough will be slowing making its shift to the east of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley by Monday. As it does so, deep northwesterly flow will take over the region. Amid the northwesterly flow, a shortwave trough and an associated vorticity maximum will round the trough and reach the CWA late Monday evening. There is consensus among ensemble members that an associated surface low pressure system will trek north and northeast of the CWA. The track of this surface low pressure system will hinder the precipitation chances with this system for our CWA, with the precipitation being farther to the northeast. Confidence in this dry forecast is further increased as 80-90% of ensemble members have no precipitation. Only some increased cloud cover due to an increase in low- to mid- level moisture is expected as the shortwave makes its way across the region.
There remains consensus among ensemble guidance that the upper-level trough will finally be well east of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday as upper-level ridging builds into the area from the west. Height rises in the upper-levels will favor a warm up to above normal temperatures by the end of the work week. Confidence in these above normal temperatures is high (90%+). The lower quartile for high temperatures Thursday and Friday is a least 10 degrees above climatological normal high temperatures for early December. This further increases confidence in this occurring.
MMG/Kimble
AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023
Impacts will persist at all terminals through the duration of the TAF period. Low stratus will produce IFR/low MVFR and continue through the overnight hours. This evening and overnight, a surface low pressure system will push across the region southwest to northeast and bring light rain to the area. Light rain will lower visibilities slightly with KUIN expected to have the lowest visibilities and more persistent rain. Confidence remains low that more persistent light rain will directly impact KCOU, KJEF, and the St. Louis Metropolitan terminals after the initial "push" of light rain, therefore decided to keep VCSH through early Sunday morning at the aforementioned terminals.
Winds are expected to be light through the early evening and then increase as the low pressure system moves across the area. Winds will then become more southerly on Sunday.
MMG/Byrd
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Wind History from 3LF
(wind in knots)
Central Illinois, IL,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE