Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Joppae, MD

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Dry and seasonable today and Tuesday. Slight chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly east of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

- 2) Warm and humid conditions return this week with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable today and Tuesday. Slight chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly east of the Blue Ridge Mountains.

As a cold front pushes southeast out of our southeast zones of southern Maryland and eastern Virginia, cooler and drier air will filter into all zones thanks to high pressure. All zones will have temperatures a couple of degrees below average for mid-June. Dry conditions expected. A weak disturbance will move across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Limited instability will provide a chance for a couple of showers mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures on Wednesday will climb a couple of degrees above average.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm and humid conditions return this week with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday.

After trending somewhat drier at the start of the week, upper level moisture starts to move into the region on Wednesday, along with a trend upwards in temperature as hotter & more humid conditions begin to take over. A stray shower or thunderstorm could develop later in the day Tuesday through early Wednesday, mainly east of the Blue Ridge, as a weak warm front slides northward from the Carolinas into Virginia.

Beginning Thursday, a strong surface low will push east past the Great Lakes with a stemming cold front that will push across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This cold front could result in multiple showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, with some becoming severe. There is already a 30%-45% severe probability noted in NCAR's AI model, and a 15%-30% severe probability noted in CSU's ML model. Timing and exact hazards are still the primary uncertainties being 5 days out, but early markers are definitely showing an early widespread severe risk with this system.

This front will track towards the south by Friday, which could result in a few lingering showers across the southern portions of the region and along the central Chesapeake Bay. High pressure moves into the region on Saturday.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Winds northwest behind a cold front. VFR conditions and lighter northwest winds today. Continued VFR conditions are expected on Tuesday as winds become light out of the south. A return of more active weather comes on Wednesday.

Beginning Thursday, a strong cold front will move through the region that could cause showers and thunderstorms at terminals. Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible as this system moves through.
Southeast winds shift westerly by Thursday afternoon. Conditions should increase throughout the day Friday.

MARINE
A cold front will bring northwest winds. SCA in effect through today. Sub- SCA level southerly winds are forecast for Tuesday.
Some isolated convection is possible over the waters on Wednesday.

Beginning late Wednesday and Thursday, SCAs will be needed as a strong cold front moves through the region. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the waters Thursday as this front moves through. Winds diminish to marginal conditions Friday, before diminishing to sub-SCA levels by Friday evening. Southeast winds shift westerly by Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for Annapolis through mid-morning as tides are a foot to a foot and a half above.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.