Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Joppae, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:12PM Friday August 7, 2020 9:10 AM EDT (13:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 8:53AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 801 Am Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Today..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely. A slight chance of tstms early this morning, then a chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Numerous showers and scattered tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 801 Am Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stationary boundary will linger near the region and our marine areas through this afternoon. This will result in chances for showers and Thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Joppae, MD
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location: 39.39, -76.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 070818 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 418 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A frontal boundary will remain stalled just to the north of the region today. High pressure will build southeast toward the region over the weekend. Another frontal system may affect the region towards the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Latest analysis depicts a stalled surface front just north of the region. High pressure dominates to the northwest over the Great Lakes. Aloft, a shortwave trough is passing over the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes, with a ridge near Bermuda and El Paso.

Plenty of moisture remains in place early this morning, though convection has dissipated for the time being with the loss of insolation and the passing vorticity aloft. However, with the main shortwave poised to move overhead this afternoon, another round of showers and thunderstorms looks likely as CAPE rapidly builds after the sun comes up. While shear is pretty marginal, enough should be present to produce at least some isolated damaging thunderstorms, while the available moisture and still relatively slow storm motion should allow for more locally heavy rains with a risk of flash flooding. It is possible that storms today are a bit more progressive than what we had yesterday, such that perhaps the highest risk of heavy rain may have passed, but with very moist ground, it won't take a lot for flooding. Highs today again in the 80s with lows tonight in the high 60s and 70s.

Shortwave passes overnight into early Saturday, with high pressure nudging southeast into the region later Saturday. While there will still be a little forcing and instability present, without the trough, storm coverage looks much lower than today, and more likely to be confined in southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Highs again in the 80s, but likely a few degrees warmer with the additional sun. Enough dry air works in to drop the dew points a few degrees, but still mostly in the low 70s, so remaining humid.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Very weak ridging will move over the region Saturday night through Sunday night. This should promote dry weather, though high humidity with dew points remaining near 70 or a little higher will still allow some isolated storms to fire in the afternoon. Should be lower coverage than even what we are expecting on Saturday, however, which will be much lower than today. With additional sun and the weak ridge, highs on Sunday should nudge towards 90 for the first time in several days, with heat indices approaching 100.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure will be moving offshore on Monday while ridging builds over SE CONUS aloft, and a quasi zonal pattern over us. At the surface the winds will become southerly over our area, which will advect warm and moist air into our region. This pattern will remain through mid week with pulses of shortwave aloft moving across our region. A warming trend will begin on Monday over our area, and with the increase in humidity, heat index values will be able to reach the low 100s over some areas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional, each day there will be a chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

A cold front will approach our region Wednesday and stall near our area through the end of the week. Waves of low pressure will be tracking through it. This will keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms over our area for Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Guidance continues to suggest low clouds and fog may become problems in the next few hours before sunrise, but so far, minimal if any has formed at the terminals. After sunrise, these should wane, with showers and t-storms again being the main hazard this afternoon and evening. Perhaps a bit less risk of low clouds and fog on Saturday morning as drier air works into the region, with much less risk of showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday.

VFR conditions with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible between Monday and Wednesday. This could bring temporary restrictions over the terminals.

MARINE. Winds generally sub-SCA thru the weekend, with the only significant hazard being thunderstorms with gusty winds. Biggest risk by far is today, but a few storms could affect the waters Saturday and Sunday afternoons as well.

Winds will remain below criteria between Monday and Wednesday. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms could bring gusty winds over the waters prompting Special Marine Warnings between Monday and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. Antecedent conditions plus high PW's and CAPE should promote more heavy rainers today. New Flash Flood Watch now in effect for areas which appear most prone to storms and flooding. Storms might have a bit more motion today which could limit the flood risk, but some areas will not take much at all given recent flooding.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Flash Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late tonight for DCZ001. MD . Flash Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late tonight for MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508. VA . Flash Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late tonight for VAZ025-026-029-036>040-050>057-501-502-505>508. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . RCM NEAR TERM . RCM SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . IMR AVIATION . IMR/RCM MARINE . IMR/RCM HYDROLOGY . RCM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 14 mi53 min E 2.9 G 5.1 76°F 82°F1018.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 14 mi59 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 82°F1019.3 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 15 mi53 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 1019.1 hPa
FSNM2 15 mi71 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 75°F 1019 hPa (+1.2)
CPVM2 27 mi53 min 78°F 73°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 29 mi53 min Calm G 1 84°F 83°F1018.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 31 mi53 min 83°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 34 mi71 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 76°F 82°F1019.9 hPa (+1.3)73°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 43 mi53 min E 1.9 G 7 73°F 76°F1019.8 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi53 min 82°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 46 mi161 min Calm 1018 hPa

Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baltimore / Martin, MD5 mi17 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F75°F94%1019.6 hPa
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD11 mi73 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist74°F73°F99%1019.6 hPa
Baltimore, Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD21 mi17 minE 39.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F70°F76%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTN

Wind History from MTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3NE4CalmE6E6NE6E11
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E6E5E4E4E4--------------CalmCalmCalmE3
1 day agoW5CalmCalmSE7SE7SE5SE5E3CalmE3CalmCalm----------------NW3N3CalmCalm
2 days agoNW18
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SW7S8S9S6Calm----------------CalmNW6NW3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Battery Point, Gunpowder River, Maryland
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Battery Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:53 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:59 AM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:49 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:32 PM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.310.80.70.60.70.91.21.51.81.81.81.61.310.80.60.60.70.91.21.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Pond Point, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Pond Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:25 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:32 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:21 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.61.41.10.90.80.80.91.21.61.92.12.121.71.410.80.70.70.91.21.51.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.