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FXUS61 KILN 030806 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 306 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
A series of low pressure systems will bring chances for precipitation through the first part of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Through sunrise, low pressure over western West Virginia will lift northeast to western Pennsylvania. As this occurs, pcpn shield across our eastern forecast area will exit out of the area. Otherwise, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will continue for the region.

For today, a mid level s/wv will move from the middle Mississippi Valley to western Pennsylvania. Lift associated with this feature will interact with moisture to produce showers.
The greatest chance continues to be focused across our northern zones, especially west central Ohio. This feature will also aid in deepening the low over western Pennsylvania as it lifts northeast to Lake Ontario. The pressure gradient will tighten, and with some diurnal mixing, stronger winds aloft will be brought down to the surface in the form of gusts. So, it will become breezy to windy with wind gusts between 25 mph and 35 mph possible during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will not rise much with highs ranging from the mid 40s west to the lower to mid 50s east.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Low pressure will continue to lift northeast, allowing weak surface ridging to briefly build east into the area. This will allow gusty winds to diminish overnight. With clouds linger but some CAA, lows will range from the lower 30s north to the mid 30s south.

On Monday, a fast moving s/wv and its associated surface low are forecast to move east/southeast across the lower Ohio Valley to the North Carolina coast. Models vary on the exact track and its subsequent forcing. Some have the associated pcpn shield farther north of the Ohio River while others have it farther south. Best thing is to take a blended approach at this juncture. Thus, will continue with a chance of rain along and south of the Ohio River while keeping northern locations dry but mostly cloudy. Pcpn threat should be exiting to the southeast by the later afternoon hours. Highs will be seasonable, ranging from the lower 40s north to the upper 40s far south.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Monday overnight hours into Tuesday should remain mostly dry under an area of weak ridging in between two shortwaves.
Overnight low temperatures drop to the low 30s and low level moisture keeps us mostly cloudy.

The next shortwave arrives bringing a brief increase mid level moisture, resulting in showers returning to the FA yet again.
Looking at model soundings on BUFKIT, deep layer cold air is wrapped around from Canada, keeping most of the thermal profile below freezing just above the surface layer with surface temperatures increasing to the low 40s. For now, have kept primarily rain with some patchy rain/snow mix in the grids for majority of Tuesday. However, as the low pressure system moves off to the east and the coldest air is pulled into the region, have precip briefly transitioning to snow on the back end of the system during early morning hours Wednesday as overnight lows fall to the low 30s.

Precipitation moves off to the east Wednesday as the dominant longwave trough axis over eastern CONUS shifts toward New England the region dries out under convergent flow aloft and surface high pressure nudging in from the Gulf region. However, cold air advection still dominates in the post frontal passage regime and Wednesday highs only reach the low 40s with overnight lows into Thursday dropping to the low 30s.

By Thursday, the longwave ridge originally over western CONUS will have progressed further east and the surface high pressure will have scooted off over the Carolinas. This results in a tight SW to NE orientated pressure gradient over the Ohio Valley. We'll feel a noticeable uptick in temperatures as WAA pumps Gulf Coast air into the region. Anticipating this warming trend to last for several days before a potent looking system looks to move through over the weekend.



AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
For the overnight period, low pressure over eastern Kentucky will lift northeast to northern West Virginia. The rain shield with this system will come close to the eastern terminals. The lowest conditions should stay to the east/southeast of KCMH/KLCK. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are forecast for the remainder of the area. Winds from the north and east around 5 to 8 knots will weaken toward morning as the region temporarily finds itself in a light and variable wind regime.

For today, an embedded mid level disturbance to our west will quickly move northeast to a position near northwest Pennsylvania by 00Z Monday. As this occurs, aforementioned low pressure will deepen as it rotates northeast to Lake Ontario by 00Z Monday.
The disturbance will bring the threat for showers, with the highest chances expected across northern locations. The pressure gradient will tighten, and winds from the southwest and west will increase to sustained 15 to 20 knots. Diurnal mixing will allow stronger gusts aloft to come down to the surface in the form of 25 to 30 knot gusts. MVFR ceilings are still forecast with some MVFR visibilities possible in showers. Precipitation will peak between 15Z and 18Z, then it will begin to shift northeast and east out of the area between 21Z and 00Z Monday.

For tonight, the low will continue to depart to the northeast.
The pressure gradient will eventually relax, and with diurnal cooling, gusty winds from the west will gradually diminish. MVFR ceilings will persist, although there are some hints of VFR ceilings trying to return across the southern locations.

The next weather system will be entering the middle Ohio Valley by 12Z. Will try to provide more detail on this system in the next TAF package.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible at times through Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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