Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hamilton, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Sprinkles associated with weak isentropic lift will continue to dissipate tonight as warm sector lifts north through the forecast area. Increasing pressure gradient, along with development of a south-southwesterly LLJ late should bring an increase in southerly surface winds... though there is some uncertainty in whether we'll see gusts due to a weak surface-based inversion.

Otherwise, clouds will decrease while temperatures remain in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
The main story of the short term period is going to be the anomalously warm temperatures and very breezy conditions, particularly during the daytime Friday. A tightening pressure gradient, combined with fairly dry air in the BL (although some moisture advection will be ongoing), should promote an increasingly well-mixed BL into the afternoon. This will lead to breezy SW winds on the order of 20-25kts, with gusts to around 35kts, from mid morning through early evening. This, along with some filtered sunshine, should promote an unseasonably warm day as temps will generally top out around 80 degrees area-wide. A few spots, particularly in south-central OH and NE KY where skies will be clearest and BL will be driest, may reach into the lower 80s. Went close to blended 90th percentile for highs on Friday given this setup.

We will likely see some RH values dip below 25% in the lower Scioto Valley into NE KY by the afternoon into early evening. This, combined with breezy conditions and mean fuel moisture near or below 8%, could lead to a localized elevated fire wx concern in these areas.

Clouds will be on the increase Friday evening into the overnight as convection that will initiate well to the NW of the ILN FA will slowly make its way into the local area during the predawn hours.
There still remains some uncertainty in just how far SE this activity will make it prior to daybreak, but confidence is fairly high that some shower/storm activity /will/ move into parts of SE/EC IN and WC OH, at the very least, before sunrise. The best chance for showers/storms prior to the conclusion of the short term period is going to be near/W of I-71/I-75, centered on the W/NW third of the local area, with areas further to the SE in NE KY and south-central OH likely to stay dry through this period.

There is very little doubt that an axis of scattered to numerous showers/storms will eventually pivot its way into SE/EC IN and WC OH by daybreak, but with increasingly-meager mid/low level lapse rates into late Friday night, the thermodynamic environment will be unimpressive and unsupportive for maintenance of strong/severe potential with SE extent. As such, the prospect of a band of steady shower/storm activity moving into areas near/N of I-71 seems much more plausible than does a pronounced severe weather episode within this same time/space. From a forecast sounding analysis perspective, the overall potential for more than just an isolated strong to severe storm appears to be rather low.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Synoptic setup at the start of the extended... an area of strong, blocking high pressure remains over Florida/the Gulf Coast while a closed low deepens over western CONUS. Finally, a positively tilted 500H trough stretches through northern North America, from Ontario through the Hudson Bay with its associated surface low/cold front stretching down through the Great Lakes all the way down to the four corners region.

As this boundary sags south and stalls out, it provides the focal point for additional showers and storm development. Right now, severe threat is fairly marginal, with limited instability and weak deep layer shear. Main threat would be strong winds with any collapsing storms along with periods of heavy rain with any training storms.

By Saturday evening, the front will meander back toward the northwest as a warm front as the low pressure to our west begins the process of ejecting. Rain showers remain in the forecast.

By Sunday, the low to the west will finally be ejecting and will start to shunt everything eastward. The front remains stretched across the area, so we'll once again be eating the temperature gradient with highs along the Ohio River in the upper 70s while highs along I-70 reach the low 60s.

Eventually, the low pressure to the west ejects, pushing everything east/northeast. Rain and storms return to the forecast Sunday night through Monday as this feature finally moves through the region. We finally dry out Tuesday into mid-week as ridging and surface high pressure push into the region.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A warm front has lifted northeast of our area early this morning.
South to southwest flow will continue through the TAF period ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. A strong low level jet will lead to the potential for LLWS through mid morning and then again tonight. Southwest surface winds will increase through the day with sustained winds later this morning and this afternoon to around 20 knots with gusts in the 30-35 knot range possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail into tonight. Some shower and thunderstorm activity will develop across our western areas late tonight so will include a prob 30 for -tsra at the tail end of the 30 hour KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK.. MVFR/IFR conditions possible along with a chance of thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Some MVFR CIGs are possible early Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.