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FXUS61 KILN 302305 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 605 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Warm air mass settles into the region and remains in place through the weekend. Low pressure system provides several rounds of rainfall Friday, with some light rain lingering into Friday night. Conditions appear to dry out for Saturday before the next system moves in on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
High pressure at the surface will continue to shift eastward off the Atlantic coast today. In the meantime, influence from the surface high will keep conditions dry throughout the daytime hours before a low pressure system moves in. Surface flow around the backside of the high will continue to usher in a warmer air mass out of the south.

Clouds are beginning to thicken a bit more as we progress through the afternoon, but still a fair amount of sunshine is being observed throughout our CWA. With the increased insolation, highs have continued to trend warmer than models projected.

Bufkit soundings show continued saturation overnight in the middle and lower levels of the troposphere with the approaching low pressure system. Certainly cannot rule out some light rain/sprinkles developing overnight, but the bulk of the rainfall will occur after sunrise.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
CAMs in fairly good agreement with the onset of rainfall across our CWA Friday morning. The heaviest axis of rainfall moves across our counties between 6AM - 12PM, moving into our northern KY and Tristate counties first in the early morning hours. Lack of instability should prevent any thunder development. Overall QPF still expected to be less than 0.5" across the fa, but a few isolated locations could certainly observe just over 0.5" from this event.

After noon, while the heaviest rainfall will have ended, there will continue to be some embedded shortwaves that ripple through and generate some additional light rain through the remainder of the day Friday and Friday night. The overall air mass remains fairly unchanged, so overnight lows Friday still remain in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Once the weakening mid-level shortwave/surface low exits to the east Friday night, mid-level flow remains southwesterly and the surface temperature gradient stays to the northwest of our County Warning Area. This will allow temperatures to make it into the 50s once again on Saturday. For Sunday, another weakening mid-level disturbance and an accompanying surface wave will eject northeastward through the Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes. This will provide another good chance of rain and more mild temperatures to close the weekend. It will also bring chillier air into the region heading into early next week.

Timing precipitation becomes a bit more tricky during the Monday through Wednesday time frame. Under northwesterly mid-level flow, multiple disturbances slide southeast into a deepening eastern United States trough. These will each bring a chance of a chilly rain Monday and Tuesday, possible extending into Wednesday. Will need to monitor the temperature fields over the next few model runs for perhaps some light snow mixing in Tuesday night.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Lower ceilings are approaching from the west this evening as seen on satellite and surface observations. The initial lowering in cloud bases should only result in OVC/BKN VFR clouds decks for a good chunk of the overnight. Ceilings should begin falling into the MVFR and IFR categories by 1000z Friday morning (later further east). Some LIFR clouds are possible after 1800z Friday.

The chance for rain increases after 0600z as clouds bases lower tonight. Widespread rain is expected to start after 0900z from southwest to northeast before becoming more scattered after 1800z.
MVFR and IFR visibility reductions are likely to occur with the widespread rain for much of the day on Friday. There is uncertainty regarding rain coverage and persistence of visibility reductions late Friday afternoon, but widespread clearing is not expected.

Southerly winds from 8-16 knots are expected to persist for the TAF period. Some higher gusts are possible during the day on Friday.

OUTLOOK... IFR/MVFR ceilings will linger late Friday into Saturday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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