Thursday, October17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Hamilton, OH

Version 3.4
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 6:58PM Thursday October 17, 2019 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:29PMMoonset 10:20AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamilton, OH
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location: 39.4, -84.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 171315
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
915 am edt Thu oct 17 2019

Below normal temperatures will continue through tonight before a
warming trend evolves for the end of the workweek into the
upcoming weekend with dry conditions expected. Above normal
temperatures are expected Sunday into early next week ahead of
the next main system forecast to impact the region with
increased precipitation chances Monday and Monday night. A
return to cooler conditions will evolve for Tuesday and beyond.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A weak disturbance today will lead to the potential for a few
sprinkles this afternoon. Most locations are expected to stay
dry however. This will also keep some cloud cover across a
large portion of the region today. Cool northwest winds will be
present today. There will be the potential for some wind gusts
to continue through the day today, however expect winds to be
less than yesterday. In general expect some wind gusts around 20
to 25 mph around primarily central ohio today. Cloud cover will
keep temperatures down some with high temperatures only in the
50s today. Went with guidance temperatures for high temperatures
today. Some upper 50s will be possible across the tri-state
where cloud cover will begin to dissipate and move out of the
area later in the day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
The relaxing pressure gradient and gradually clearing skies
tonight will set the stage for frost potential across a large
portion of the area. In fact, if skies are able to clear enough
in central south-central ohio late tonight, just about
everywhere will see the potential for at least some patchy
frost. More widespread frost will be possible near west of the
i-75 corridor where clearer skies and calmer winds will be more
conducive to widespread frost development.

Lows tonight will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s with some
rural lower 30s not completely out of the realm of
possibilities. Will continue to highlight frost potential in the
hwo as a widespread freeze appears unlikely at this time.

Surface high pressure will build into the area on Friday,
providing abundant sunshine and a respectable rebound in
temperatures during the afternoon as highs top out a degree or
two either side of the 60-degree mark area-wide.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
To start the weekend, attention shifts to the potential phasing of
two separate features. One is a potential area of tropical low
pressure (invest 96l) moving through the florida panhandle and the
other is a weakening shortwave moving through the ohio valley. Model
guidance are becoming less certain on these two features merging
together, keeping the forecast area fairly dry for Saturday night
and Sunday. With this evening 00z model output showing less
potential, kept rainfall potential between 20-30%. Despite the
pessimistic odds, these odds could increase depending on the
future development of #96l. A further west track could mean
better moisture reaching the area by Saturday evening. Weak
500mb ridging forms quickly behind these two features, promoting
decreasing rain chances Sunday afternoon and overnight. High
temperatures both Saturday and Sunday comfortably reach into the
60s and 70s.

The more impressive feature arrives early next week as an upper
level short wave initiates an area of low pressure over the
north central great plains late Sunday evening and into Monday. The
area of low pressure tracks northeastward into the northern great
lakes Monday with its associated cold front stretching southward
toward the gulf coast. Within the warm sector airmass, breezy and
warm conditions are forecast for Monday along with increasing rain
chances late in the day. This evening's model guidance remains fixed
on a cold front passage time of Monday night into early Tuesday

With the strong dynamics associated with this feature, long-
range cips analog guidance was reviewed and it revealed that severe
weather has occurred with similar pressure patterns in past. While
overall instability is marginal at best, veering winds that
strengthen with height suggest long-curved shaped hodograph and a
potential tornado threat with any line of thunderstorms that moves
through the area. While still a distance away, this system is a
reminder that the local area is currently in the secondary peak of
severe weather during year. The cold front pushes through quickly
with drier conditions expected late Tuesday and into Wednesday as an
area of high pressure passes to the south. Much of the same is
forecast for Thursday with a weak area of low pressure to the
northwest, placing the forecast area in warm, southwesterly flow.

Another roller coaster in temperatures over the extended forecast
period as temperatures start above normal, drop below normal after
the front passes through, and then finally ending with another warm
up to close.

Aviation 13z Thursday through Monday
MainlyVFR CIGS remain in place for northern eastern portions
of the area with some lingering MVFR clouds across central ohio
that will affect kcmh and klck at times through the morning
hours. Have seen a trend in theVFR 4-5kft clouds being shunted
a bit further east away from kcvg and kluk and even kiln,
yielding mainly clear skies for these southern sites. This will
likely remain the case through the day today as the best
corridor of clouds remains entrenched from west-central ohio
through central ohio.

Additionally, another mid upper level impulse tracking
southeast through the great lakes ohio valley regions during the
day will help spread additional cloud cover into the area
through the afternoon, yielding an increase in mid high level
clouds this morning with the maintenance of aVFR 4-5kft deck
through most of the afternoon for kday, kcmh and klck. Skies
will trend clearer past 00z Friday through the end of the period
as drier air filters in area-wide.

West-northwest winds of 12-14kts with gusts of 18-20kts will
continue at times this morning before slowly subsiding even
into the afternoon hours as the gradient relaxes. Still
anticipate wnw winds of 10-12kts this afternoon with gusts to
18kts or so before tailing off abruptly toward past 00z with
light variable winds toward the end of the period.

Could see some spotty MVFR vsbys develop tonight -- particularly
in vulnerable locations such as river valleys but decided to
omit from fcst at this time due to uncertainties in potential

Outlook... No significant weather is expected at this time.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Ky... None.

In... None.

Synopsis... Kc
near term... Novak
short term... Kc
long term... Mcginnis
aviation... Kc

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Butler County Regional Airport, OH4 mi39 minWNW 12 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds56°F36°F47%1016.8 hPa
Hook Field Municipal Airport, OH13 mi57 minW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy53°F37°F55%1016.6 hPa
Cincinnati, Cincinnati Municipal Airport Lunken Field, OH22 mi39 minNW 810.00 miFair56°F35°F46%1016.5 hPa
Dayton, Dayton-Wright Brothers Airport, OH23 mi39 minNW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F37°F57%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHAO

Wind History from HAO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW15
1 day agoS7S4S8
2 days agoW6W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.