Hamilton, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hamilton, OH

June 20, 2024 7:11 AM EDT (11:11 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 9:10 PM
Moonrise 7:24 PM   Moonset 3:32 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamilton, OH
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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 201047 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 647 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid conditions will continue through Sunday until a cold front moves through the region, bringing brief relief from the heat. Slightly cooler air settles in Monday before warmer and more humid air quickly returns by midweek once again.
Although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out just about any day through Sunday, the most widespread chances for storms through the next week look to be Sunday and next Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Mainly tranquil conditions reside locally this morning amidst a warm, muggy, and stagnant airmass that remains entrenched across the region. Temps will bottom out generally in the lower 70s by daybreak before rebounding into the lower to mid 90s by late afternoon once again.

There are a few indications for /slightly/ drier air to develop/mix within the BL this afternoon, which could yield dewpoints that are on the order of 2-4 degrees /lower/ than was the case during peak heating Wednesday. The flip side of the coin, however, will be actual air temps that will likely run 2-4 degrees /warmer/ than was the case Wednesday. So the end result is going to be approximately the same -- heat index values in the upper 90s to briefly around 100 degrees at times. It certainly won't feel any cooler or any different than the past few days, despite a slightly warmer/less humid afternoon than has been the case throughout the week thus far.

The other item of interest will be the potential for a few ISO stray SHRA/TSRA to develop this afternoon. This may particularly be the case within a N-S oriented axis very near, and just to the E, of the I-75 corridor where a subtle LL convergent axis develops, helping pool slightly better moisture in these areas. This is already evident on nighttime microphysics with the development of some clouds in these areas.
This convergent axis is courtesy of a weak/small LL high positioned to the SW of the ILN FA, with another one to the E across the mid-Atlantic, allowing for very light W/NW BL flow across wrn parts of the area and very light E/SE BL flow across ern parts of the area. This may be just enough to focus some slightly higher dewpoints within a narrow axis, supporting the potential for some ISO convection near/just E of I-75.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
More of the same is on tap tonight -- warm and muggy conditions with lows bottoming out in the lower 70s. Friday will be a near carbon copy of today's weather, except perhaps another few degrees warmer (but with dewpoints a few degrees lower).
Anticipate that highs will top out in the mid 90s Friday, with afternoon dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 60s, yielding heat index values just a 2-3 degrees above actual air temps.

Although a very ISO SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out Friday, especially in central OH, most areas again remain dry.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The 700H- 500H ridge continues to retrograde back through the Tennessee Valley region, with the ILN CWA comfortably seated near the center of the high. Consequentially, Saturday will be one of the hottest days of the ongoing heatwave, with high temperatures in the upper 90s and dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s. This results in "feels like" temperatures around 100F for most areas but especially in our metro areas, continuing to remain in advisory level criteria.
With that being said, Saturday marks day 6 of the prolonged heat (Heat Advisory products came out on Monday, 6/17). Consequentially, the Heat Risk category remains "Extreme" for much of our area. Visit wpc.ncep.noaa/gov/heatrisk/ for details on the Extreme Heat Risk category. Unfortunately, not much relief Saturday night into Sunday with overnight lows only falling to the upper 70s.

Sunday, a shortwave moving through the Great Lakes region will bring a cold front through our area Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers and storms will be forced out ahead of the frontal boundary. Right now, CSU severe highlights all of the region with a low end severe probability. This is likely due to the ample CAPE (and DCAPE) that will be in place with some shear aloft, given the 850mb jet. Will be something to keep an eye on as we get nearer. Highs on Sunday reach the low 90s with overnight lows into Monday fall to the upper 60s.

In the relatively cooler post-frontal air, Monday will be a slight respite from the heat, with highs in the upper 80s. While this doesn't sound like much, we might actually notice a difference, given the surge of dry air that moves into the region behind the front. In fact, dew points drop from the low 70s into the upper 50s.
Overnight low temperatures in the mid 60s.

This is all short lived, as we quickly rebound with return southerly flow on Tuesday ahead of the next system poised to move into the region and highs bounce back into the low 90s. We'll continue to keep an eye on this mid week wave as it looks to impact the region sometime around Wed/Thur next week. Still a bit far out for details, but ECMWF, CMC, and GFS ensembles all hone in on a notable negative height anomaly moving through the Great Lakes region mid to end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Aside from an axis of a FEW/SCT VFR Cu percolating about KCVG/KLUK/KDAY, some BKN cirrus will stream to the NE through the region through about 18z.

Diurnally-driven expansion of the Cu field is expected by/past 16z, with SCT conditions expected to prevail for most of the area during the latter half of the daytime. Some BKN Cu may develop in pockets, especially for KDAY/KILN. Cannot rule out a stray afternoon/early evening SHRA/TSRA for nrn sites, including KILN, but coverage should remain fairly limited.

Light southerly flow will occasionally be more VRB, especially during the daytime, with non-storm-related winds staying generally around 5kts or less through the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080.




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Wilmington, OH,




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