Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 7:59 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 110551 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 151 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak ridge of high pressure will bring clear or clearing sky cover over the region today and most of tonight. A low pressure center in northern Michigan will lay a cold front across the Ohio Valley, which will pass east relatively quickly on Saturday. A line of showers are expected with it's passage, with the better coverage and strength found in the northern CWA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
Area of clouds over the area will continue tracking east overnight. There will be a break in cloud cover before axis of moisture ahead of a surface trough pushes into the region late.
Showers will impinge on areas north and west of I-71 before daybreak.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
The back edge of the showers should be in eastern CWA early Saturday and quickly move east and away. However, as the sun interacts with cold air aloft, some showers may begin to spark in eastern and northeastern CWA This is moreso in the afternoon, but the chances were just expanded slightly westward in the morning after the line's passage.

Highs will warm slightly in the south tomorrow. Readings will range from the mid 60s in the north to around 70 along and south of the Ohio River.

It will be a cool night with most places falling into the mid to upper 40s. But some warming will occur on Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Clearing skies overnight with a building surface ridge and generally light winds will see lows drop to the mid 40s with a good radiational cooling setup.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
On Sunday morning, an upper low will be moving eastward through Pennsylvania and New York, with height rises occurring over the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure will be in place to the southeast of the region, keeping dry conditions in place on Sunday and Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 70s.

On Monday, deep-layer southerly flow will become established into the region, as an upstream trough develops over the plains. While some showers could drift into the area on Monday afternoon, a more significant source of deep-layer moisture and forcing will arrive Monday night. This system will only be moving very slowly eastward, with a surface low not crossing through the Ohio Valley until Wednesday morning. This means that there will be an extended period of chances for showers and storms from Monday night through Wednesday. A southward-moving cold front will follow into the region behind the surface low on Wednesday, providing drier and cooler air and ending the chances for precipitation. Confidence in this part of the forecast is medium, with good confidence in the overall pattern, but still details to work out. Some of the mesoscale details will help determine if there will be any severe or flood threats with this system, but there are no obvious signs at this point in the forecast process.

Confidence is low in the pattern for Thursday and Friday, as there remains model disagreement in how quickly southerly flow and upstream troughing will return to the area. For now, will keep low chances for precipitation in on both days.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR will prevail with primarily mid to high clouds at the start of the period. A line of showers ahead of a surface trough will push across the TAF sites between 11Z and 16Z. Most locations will remain VFR, except the Columbus terminals where some temporary MVFR conditions may occur.

With the passage of the trough, winds will veer to the west northwest and strengthen. Some gusts to around 25 kt will occur through the rest of the daytime period. Clouds will scatter.
Winds, both sustained and gusts, will decrease towards 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceiling and visibilities as well as thunderstorms possible Monday night through Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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