Friday, January17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brigantine, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:01PM Friday January 17, 2020 10:32 AM EST (15:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:56AMMoonset 12:44PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 1005 Am Est Fri Jan 17 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
Today..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S late in the morning, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt early in the afternoon, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft early in the afternoon, building to 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of rain late in the morning. A chance of snow in the late morning and early afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the late morning and early afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain until early morning, then a chance of rain late.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 1005 Am Est Fri Jan 17 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Strong high pressure will progress from the great lakes region today to the northeast tonight before moving offshore on Saturday. Meanwhile, developing low pressure in the central plains will lift northeastward to new england by Sunday morning. This will bring an attendant cold front through the mid- atlantic on Saturday night. A strong and broad surface high will build into the eastern u.s. For most of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brigantine, NJ
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location: 39.41, -74.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 171430 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 930 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong high pressure will progress from the Great Lakes region today to the Northeast tonight before moving offshore on Saturday. Meanwhile, developing low pressure in the central Plains will lift northeastward to New England by Sunday morning. This will bring an attendant cold front through the Mid- Atlantic on Saturday night. A strong and broad surface high will build into the eastern U.S. for most of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 9:30 am update: Winds remain on the strong side with gusts still reaching 25 to 30 mph at times. These should continue to weaken throughout the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon. A brief bit of respite this afternoon with no headlines before the much-discussed winter storm moves into the region. Adjusted temperatures and dew points up just a touch given current trends, otherwise the forecast is on par.

Strong high pressure located in the Great Lakes Region early this morning will build to the east today. The pressure gradient between the high and the departing area of low pressure well off Nova Scotia will maintain a brisk northwest wind in our region today. However, wind speeds are forecast to begin diminishing slowly this afternoon. Sustained wind speeds this morning are expected to be 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 or 35 mph.

The northwest flow will bring cold dry air into eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. Lingering clouds and light snow showers in the Poconos, parts of the Lehigh Valley and northwestern New Jersey should dissipate this morning. We are anticipating a sunny sky for much of the day with perhaps some high clouds arriving from the west toward sunset.

Temperatures are forecast to be below normal for the first time in over a week. Highs are expected to be mainly in the lower and middle 30s, with readings not getting above the 20s in the Pocono Region and in far northern New Jersey. The high temperatures are about 6 to 8 degrees below normal for January 17.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/. The center of the area of high pressure is expected to pass across southern Quebec tonight. Our weather will continue to be cold and dry. A northwest to north wind 5 to 10 mph is anticipated to become light and variable overnight.

There should be an increase in high clouds from the west tonight, out ahead of our next weather system. Some mid level clouds may arrive toward daybreak.

The thin high clouds and the light wind is expected to allow temperatures to drop into the teens and lower 20s in much of our region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The medium-range period starts with a storm system moving through the region Saturday and Saturday night and ends with a long, mostly dry, and mostly cold spell.

A surface ridge will be straddling the East Coast Saturday morning as progressive midlevel ridging moves through the Northeast. Upstream, a fairly potent trough will be migrating through the central U.S., as an attendant surface low begins to lift into the Midwest. Warm advection will begin in earnest Saturday morning in advance of the trough, with clouds quickly thickening and lowering. However, residual dry air will exist in the low levels thanks to the predecessor surface ridge moving through the region. I continue to suspect models are too aggressive in saturating this very dry low- level air as stronger isentropic lift reaches the area around midday. As such, I continued the trend of lowering PoPs across the area Saturday morning (especially before 15z), with a quick ramp-up around 18z as the stronger lift reaches the area. The strongest ascent reaches the northern Mid-Atlantic during the mid-to-late afternoon, and this could result in some fairly strong columnar cooling via dynamic effects (in addition to initial wet- bulbing). However, warm advection will be considerable in advance of the trough, so expect gradual transition from snow (at onset) to rain from south to north with time (though areas north of I-78 may remain mostly snow before precipitation cessation). Model soundings are suggestive that sufficient warming aloft may occur to permit a period of sleet during the transition, with some of the higher-res guidance suggesting more of a waffling of precipitation types (owing to the competing effects of warm advection and dynamic cooling). As such, did include at least a chance of sleet, predominantly for eastern PA, during the afternoon and early evening.

Of course, snow amounts remain a tricky forecast owing to the precipitation type transition (and increasingly marginal surface temperatures). As mentioned in yesterday's discussion, a combination of pattern recognition, prior model performance, and reasonable model agreement all suggest a sub-advisory event for the I-95 corridor and southeastward. Amounts around or under an inch seem to be the most likely outcome in these areas (with mostly a rain event southeast of a Stevensville to Atlantic City to Asbury Park line). Current forecast has 1-2 inches generally for the western suburbs of Philadelphia toward the Trenton and New Brunswick areas, with 2-5 inch totals from the Reading to Morristown areas northwestward (highest amounts being in the Poconos). Confidence in snow amounts is always on the low side when precipitation type issues combine with marginal and warming low-level temperature profiles. However, additional inhibiting factors are in play: residual dry air near the surface (which may end up being stronger than progged), a fairly quick-hitting system (which will likely shut off rapidly after dark given the timing of the attendant midlevel vort max), and somewhat unfavorable timing of the maximum lift (late afternoon, plus or minus). All of this compels me to keep amounts near or below consensus (i.e., within the constraints of advisory amounts CWA- wide). Given the above (and per collaboration with surrounding offices) will go ahead and issue a winter weather advisory for the aforementioned Reading to Morristown corridor northwestward from late Saturday morning through Saturday evening, with fairly high confidence most locations in this outlined area will see advisory- level winter-weather impacts. There is still plenty of time to amend these products as needed in subsequent forecasts.

As the associated surface low lifts through New England and offshore on Sunday, northwest flow will become established with an increasing surface pressure gradient. Another breezy day should be expected, with some snow showers possible in the Poconos and vicinity. Model soundings are a little more impressive with mixing for Sunday (compared to this time yesterday), so did bump up wind gusts a little bit from the previous forecast. Anticipate gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible. There is also some indication of an increased chance of snow showers or even squalls as a reinforcing front moves into the area late in the day or in the early evening. Will continue to monitor this potential.

Much of next week looks dry and chilly, as a strong, broad, and cold surface high becomes established in the eastern half of the U.S. The colder look of the GFS/CMC still looks preferable to the faster moderation of the ECMWF, as larger-scale troughing in eastern North America tends to be eroded too quickly. The surface ridge will keep any meaningful precipitation chances at bay Monday through Friday.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR under a mostly clear sky. A northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 30 knots this morning should begin to slowly diminish this afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR with increasing high clouds. Northwest to north wind 5 to 10 knots becoming variable 6 knots or less. High confidence.

Outlook . Saturday and Saturday night . Rapidly deteriorating conditions expected as precipitation moves in from the west by afternoon. Precipitation will likely start as snow at the Philly terminals northwestward, with gradual transition to rain by evening at the Philly terminals. Precipitation may mix with rain at RDG/ABE before tapering off during the evening. Meanwhile, MIV/ACY may see mostly (or completely) rain. South winds increasing to 5 to 15 kt by afternoon, transitioning to southwest or west late Saturday night. LLWS probable through Saturday evening. Overall confidence is moderate (but with winds is high).

Sunday . Improvement to VFR expected as winds become west to northwest 10 to 20 kt with gusts 30+ kt. Cannot rule out snow showers (generally north/west of PHL) in the afternoon/evening. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night . VFR with northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts in the evening to 25+ kt. High confidence.

Monday through Tuesday . VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kt (possibly with a few gusts to 20 kt or so during the daytime hours). High confidence.

MARINE. A brisk northwest wind should continue over the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for today. Gale force wind gusts are expected until mid to late morning, followed by a period of Small Craft Advisory level conditions into the early evening. Wind speeds and waves heights will likely fall below Small Craft Advisory criteria for tonight.

Outlook . Saturday and Saturday night . At least advisory-level south to southwest winds are expected, with seas quickly building to 5 to 8 ft during the afternoon and evening hours. A chance of rain and visibility restrictions late in the day through the overnight hours.

Sunday . Winds will become northwest, with gusts approaching gale force. Seas should slowly subside to around 4 to 6 ft by late afternoon.

Sunday night . Lingering advisory conditions expected as northwest winds slowly diminish.

Monday . Mainly sub-advisory winds/seas expected (especially by late morning onward).

Monday night and Tuesday . Generally sub-advisory winds/seas expected, though northwest winds will approach 25 kt at times during this period.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for NJZ001-007>009. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ430-431- 450>455.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . Davis/Iovino Short Term . Iovino Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS/Iovino Marine . CMS/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 5 mi63 min 29°F 44°F1037.1 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 10 mi63 min NW 8.9 28°F 1038 hPa8°F
44091 40 mi33 min 47°F8 ft
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 44 mi63 min NW 17 G 25 30°F 42°F1037 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 49 mi63 min N 27 G 34 33°F 1037.4 hPa

Wind History for Cape May, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ12 mi99 minNNW 20 G 3610.00 miFair and Breezy29°F8°F41%1035.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN10NW10NW6W9NW6W3N3S7CalmS3S4S7S7S7S11
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2 days agoE8E6E6E9E7E5E4E5E4N4N3NW4NW4W5W5NW9NW10NW9W7NW7NW7NW8NW8NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Brigantine Channel @ Hoffman Thorofare, New Jersey
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Brigantine Channel @ Hoffman Thorofare
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:28 AM EST     3.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:36 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:00 AM EST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 11:43 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:41 PM EST     3.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:04 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.83.73.12.21.30.60.20.10.61.32.233.43.53.12.21.30.60.1-0.200.71.7

Tide / Current Tables for Absecon, Absecon Creek, U.S. Hwy. 30 bridge, New Jersey
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Absecon
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:56 AM EST     4.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:00 AM EST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 08:19 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:44 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:09 PM EST     3.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:47 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.13.84.13.72.91.91.10.50.10.20.91.82.73.43.83.62.921.10.4-0.1-0.20.21.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.