Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gabbs, NV

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern shows an upper ridge over the region with Pacific low pressure off the coast of N CA. With this ridge aloft, daytime high temperatures of 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals are expected once again today.
Highs in the W NV valleys will be in the middle 60s to around the 70 degree mark while the Sierra valleys will see highs ranging between the middle and upper 50s. Lows for tonight look to be more or less the same experienced during the previous night.

Forecast guidance depicts a shortwave disturbance moving through the flow over the CA/OR border in the late morning today and going through most of the day. This feature looks to be the driver in precipitation chances for the region today. The latest run of the RRFS shows a line of showers passing through NE CA and Northern Washoe County giving these areas roughly a 50-70% chance for light rain between 8 AM and 12 PM. Following this, the window will open for showers and isolated thunderstorm chances in the late afternoon going into the evening. The precipitation chances are the greatest (~80%) along the OR border and gradually decrease going south where the Reno metro area and Tahoe Basin see around 15% chance. Snow levels will be quite high (>9500 ft) so it will mainly be rain for all elevations outside of small hail or pellet showers in stronger shower or thunderstorm cells. Please keep the potential for thunderstorms (15-30% chance) in mind today especially if you have outdoor plans though not currently anticipating storms to become severe at this time. While precipitation chances then generally taper off going into the night, a 25-35% chance for showers continues for portions of the region along the OR border.

On Sunday, models showing the Pacific low moving closer to the N CA coast. With this pattern aloft, temperatures start a slight cooling trend while Sierra ridge winds will gust to around 60+ mph tomorrow. Another round of light shower chances are to expected through Sunday and Monday as the low progresses across N CA and N NV. Snow levels will gradually drop with the cooler temperatures to around 8-8.5 kft by Sunday afternoon and then to around 6-6.5 kft by Sunday night/Monday morning. Currently, accumulating snow looks to only be at the Sierra crest with up to around 3 inches of snow possible by Monday afternoon. Very little to no snowfall accumulation is expected at this time if rain transitions to snow elsewhere. The shower chances exit out of the region to the east by Monday afternoon. Thunderstorm chances for these two days expect to be relatively low (around 10% or less).

Ensembles then show a ridge moving over the region on Tuesday allowing for a break from the precipitation chances. But the break does not last as trough follows the ridge on Wednesday causing precipitation chances to come right back with a potential cold front passage. Beyond this through the rest of the work week, there's still some good uncertainty between model solutions leading to an unsettled weather pattern. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected today for the area TAF sites. KTRK also sees a patchy FZFG chances through 28/18Z. Otherwise, shower and isolated thunderstorm chances return today with the best chances in areas closer to the OR border this afternoon and evening. 10-20% chances for showers are forecast between 28/18Z-01/03Z for all TAF sites except for KMMH. FL100 winds will increase to around 25-35 kts this evening out of the W/SW. -078

AVALANCHE

Weather impacts to avalanche center terrain will be dominated by continued warm temperatures today, followed by a windy, showery period later today through Monday with limited high-elevation snowfall.

* Snow Levels/SLR/SWE: Snow levels remain very high through Saturday evening (9500-10000 ft), then fall to around 6000-6500 ft Sunday night into Monday. Probabilities of at least 1 inch of snowfall above 8000 ft are around 10-20% in the Tahoe Basin, and 30-40% chance through Alpine and Mono County during this time period, with SLRs on the order of 5:1 increasing to 8-10:1 by Monday morning. Latest forecast SWE look to be 0.10-0.40 inches along the Sierra crest through Monday.

* Winds: Southwest ridgetop winds increase sharply late Saturday morning through Saturday evening, with gusts 50-60 mph likely.
Winds remain breezy into Sunday, gradually easing Monday.

* Lightning: The forecast still has a 15-20% chance of thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, with a 10-15% through Alpine County and less than <5% along the Mono County crest.
Activity then transitions to more widespread but generally light/scattered showers Sunday into Monday. -Fuentes/078

HYDROLOGY

All rivers and streams in the area have crested, but flows remain elevated and may respond quickly to continued snowmelt with warm temperatures and any weekend showers/thunderstorms, especially smaller creeks and steams.

Use extra caution near rivers and creeks. Prolonged high flows may lead to unstable banks and erosion.

No new flooding is forecast, check for river forecasts and observations at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov

-TB

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.