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FXUS65 KREV 282139 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 139 PM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS

Chilly and dry conditions will prevail through Wednesday before unsettled weather arrives Thursday. Periods of showers and increased breezes are expected through Saturday with slick roads possible in lower valleys during Friday morning commute. Mild weather with steady warming returns early next week.

DISCUSSION

A glance out the office window shows some lingering haze in the Truckee Meadows amid another chilly day across the Sierra and western Nevada. Daytime highs will near normal this afternoon as temperatures struggle to surpass the 50F mark. Wednesday continues to trend drier as a compact upper cyclone elongates into an open wave feature, confining the greatest large scale ascent well south of the region. As such, another chilly and quiet day is on tap for Wednesday, though steepening lapse rates and subsequent better mixing should limit haze in urban valleys.

The next opportunity for rain and snow will be Thursday into Friday morning under a diffluent, northwest flow regime. Chances of snow showers will increase to 50-60% for the Sierra Thursday afternoon while chances of showers reach 20-40% across western Nevada. Snow levels will likely start around 5000' and increase to near 5500' during the afternoon, confining snowfall to the mountains and adjacent foothills. This is until the overnight hours when snow levels fall below the valley floors, allowing for a 15-25% chance of snow for the Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden area early Friday per latest blended guidance. Accumulations on valley floors will be light, if any at all, but may be just enough to yield slick roads during the Friday morning commute. Elsewhere, surrounding foothills will likely see a few tenths of an inch of new snow with 20-30% chance of receiving an inch. Total snowfall around the Tahoe Basin be around 1-3" with up to 3-6" along the Sierra crest.

Another bout of showers will accompany a quick shortwave trough passage late Friday and Saturday. Chance of showers lower a bit with this round of precip, reaching 30-40% in the Sierra and 15-25% for lower western Nevada valleys Saturday afternoon. Totals will be quite light with the Sierra receiving a few tenths of an inch. A few lingering showers are possible for Sunday with best chances in far northern Lassen and Washoe County. Otherwise, Sunday is shaping up to mainly dry and cool for most areas.

Much more mild weather is expected for the first half of next week as ensembles advertise a transient upper ridge overspreading the Sierra and western Nevada. For the latter half of next week, there is a hint of eastern Pacific troughing and subsequent unsettled weather but its much to early to call.

-Salas

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions amid light winds will prevail through the rest of the day and into Wednesday. Better mixing should mitigate impacts to slantwise visibilities due to valley haze Wednesday.
Periods of deteriorated flight conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday as a series of trough passages introduce chances of showers and increased breezes.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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