Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gabbs, NV

Key Messages:

* Minor HeatRisk in the interior valleys through mid next week.

* Gusty westerly-to-northwesterly breezes with low daytime humidity in the interior valleys today and again on Monday.

* Stronger coastal northerlies today and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Broad upper level trough will remain offshore over the northeast Pacific through the weekend. High temperatures in the interior valleys will trend warmer over the weekend with most interior sites in the mid to upper 80's by Sunday. Minor HeatRisk may still impact individuals who are extremely sensitive to heat. Stronger afternoon and evening west-to-northwest breezes are expected for many of the interior valleys today. Gusts generally from 15-20 mph are likely (60% chance or higher), though wind channeled valleys and ridges will have stronger gusts from 25-35 mph. Coastal northerlies will also increase today (Friday) and gusts from 35-40 mph are possible (90% chance per the HRRR and ECMWF ensemble)
over the headlands; Pt St George and Cape Mendo.

W-SW flow aloft with embedded shorter wavelength troughs will occasionally traverse into the Pac NW this weekend generating occasional high level cirrus or cirro-stratus. SW flow is dry and precip chances remain quite low, near zero. Larger scale trough passage is forecast to occur on Monday, disrupting the interior warm up. Precip and thunder potential with this trough remains well to the north and northeast of our forecast area and do not have a compelling reason to modify NBM output at this point.

Warming trend will resume in the interior Tue-Wed as a broad and flat 500mb ridge builds in the wake of the trough. Probabilities for high temps in the lower to mid 90's (90-95F) will increase by Wed in Lake, central and eastern Trinity and NE Mendo. Not so sure about SE Mendo with about 5F degrees of interquartile spread (86-91) at places like Ukiah and potential for marine air intrusion. Higher PWATs spill over the offshore ridge in westerly flow Tue-Wed next week. Chances for a few hundredths of an inch of precip increases a bit. With very little or no impacts from this minuscule amount of drizzle, will not adjust any of the NBM precip probabilities at this time.

Highs will begin to trend downward toward the latter portion of next week (Thu-Fri) as another mid level 500mb trough digs southward offshore from the Gulf of Alaska. Ensemble clusters reveal considerable variance with the evolution and rates of 500mb height falls. One cluster (17% of members) indicates above normal heights and continued ridging on Friday. This uncertainty is reflected in NBM interquartile spreads of high temps; on the order of 5-8F for interior valleys. NBM 24hr precip probabilities (less than 10%) for 0.10 of an inch increases for Del Norte County around Friday. Otherwise, main impact with this late week trough appears to be cooler temps and perhaps enhanced diurnal winds in the interior. Depending on where the trough ends up and how it digs into the Pac NW/Great Basin (inside slider), it could also result in stronger north-northeast winds with an increase in fire weather concerns for Lake and eastern Mendo.

AVIATION

18Z TAF) Inland terminals can expect VFR conditions with afternoon gusty winds westerly winds building then calming overnight. Along the coastal terminals, skies are beginning to clear. Brief broken to few ceilings at 1500-2000ft are expected before giving way to clear skies. The biggest forecast challenge today will be the strength of the winds along the coast. High Resolution models show gusts possible up to 30kts. This can lead to some low level turbulence should be expected in the lowest level of the atmosphere along coastal terminals. Tonight, there are mixed signals of stratus returning to the coast. LAMP guidance shows a 40- 50% probability of MVFR ceilings returning overnight to KACV before mixing away by midday on Saturday



MARINE

As the land-sea surface pressure gradient strengths, strong northerly winds will continue to increase throughout the waters today and into the weekend. Strong to near gale force gusts are expected across the coastal waters. In localized areas downwind of Pt St. George and Cape Mendocino, gale force gusts of 35kts are likely during Friday and Saturday afternoon hours. A Gale Warning was not issued due to the limited area of these expected enhanced winds. However, steep short period wind waves will fill into the inner waters creating hazardous conditions for smaller crafts leading to widespread small craft advisories across the waters through Sunday early in morning. Winds and seas remain be elevated through the weekend, especially in the outer waters where the impact of coastal nighttime easing of the winds will be less prominent. Strong northerly winds forecast to decrease slightly and retreat to the southern waters early next week.



FIRE WEATHER

Gusty west-to-northwest breezes continue today in the interior valleys. Generally gusts are forecast to peak around 15-20 mph in the afternoon and evenings. Some higher gusts are possible in eastern Lake, Mendocino, and Trinity counties. HRRR is showing good probabilities for areas of eastern Lake to see higher gusts of 25-30 mph this evening and afternoon. Min RH remains low (10-20%), but overnight recoveries remain good (50%+) in the valleys. Recoveries in the higher terrain of eastern Lake and Mendocino are worse (20-40%). Afternoon winds remain breezy in eastern Lake, eastern Mendocino, and Trinity counties for much of next week accompanied by low afternoon RHs. The combination of these gusty winds and low RH's may enhance the risk for small and fast spreading grass/brush fires, particularly in Lake County. Low RH's and gusty west-northwest breezes are expected to continue in the interior valleys this weekend and all of next week.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ450-455- 470-475.