DISCUSSION
An upper low is departing south into S CA this afternoon with ridging nosing in from the west behind it. Light onshore winds and a strengthening low level inversion is keeping the immediate coast fairly well locked in the stratus this afternoon thus far. The ridge will remain in place and will slowly amplify, resulting in a gradual warming trend. Temperatures will peak early next week when the warmer inland valley temperatures reach into the upper 90s to 100. These temperatures will be 10 to up to nearly 15 degrees above climatological norms and will bring areas of Moderate Heat Risk Monday and Tuesday.
Friday and Saturday, most inland areas continue to see some warming with highs getting into the low to mid 90s by Saturday.
Northeast winds overnight will help keep much of the coastal areas clear. Better offshore flow this weekend will bring chances for ample sunshine and warmer temperatures to the coast; however, northwest winds will become breezy in the afternoons and will likely keep most coastal temperatures from warming much more than the mid to upper 60s. Clusters and ensembles are continuing to struggle with the timing of the ridge breakdown mid to late next week.

AVIATION
Coastal cloudiness continued through most of the morning, with some very brief scattering at KCEC. Stratus has been clearing north to south this afternoon, clearing from the OR coast and currently scattering from Del Norte. Low cloud is expected to stick around along the Redwood coast in the lee of Pt. St. George this afternoon, then surge back northward as a southerly wind reversal develops. This should bring LIFR back to KCEC tonight.
Meanwhile at KACV, LIFR ceilings and intermittent mist continue.
Some clearing remains possible...but any, if it occurs at all, will be brief. Ceilings lower again this evening and another round of fog is possible overnight tonight.



MARINE
Northerly winds of 20 to 30 kts are forecast to persist in the outer waters through this weekend, peaking in strength Friday then trending down Sat and Sun, with a secondary maximum Saturday afternoon. A Gale Warning has been issued for the Northern outer waters, where sustained winds of 30 to 35 kts are forecast beginning late Friday morning. These winds will generate steep seas, which are expected to propagate into the northern inners Friday night. Winds trend a few knots weaker over the weekend, then significantly weaken Monday night and Tuesday as a ridge moves onshore, pushing the pressure gradient (and thus core of stronger northerlies)
offshore toward the NW. Lighter winds are expected mid next week, although confidence is low on details.



Fire Weather
Offshore flow (NE Winds) is ongoing this morning and is expected to continue for the next several days. It looks like it will be the strongest on Saturday morning with winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph on the most exposed areas of Del Norte county. Winds will be lighter farther south and east, although there is some uncertainty on how much lighter. This will also bring drier air to the coastal mountains and recoveries are only expected to be around 40 percent on the higher terrain. This combination will bring elevated fire weather conditions so will add a headline to the fire weather forecast for this in zones 203 and 204. Late in the weekend and early next week it looks like winds will diminish some, although RH recoveries will remain poor.
MKK

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470.

Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for PZZ475.

Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for PZZ475.