Castle Pines, CO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Castle Pines, CO

April 15, 2024 8:50 AM MDT (14:50 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM
Moonrise 11:42 AM   Moonset 2:35 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castle Pines, CO
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Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 418 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024


- Critical fire weather conditions over the plains this afternoon.

- A windy weather system will bring snow to the mountains with rain showers likely on the plains this afternoon into Tuesday.

- Cooler, windy and unsettled the rest of the week. Occasional snow showers in the mountains with a chance of mostly rain showers for the plains.

SHORT TERM /Through tonight/
Issued at 401 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Things so far are trending as expected, with lingering breezy southeasterly winds across the northeast plains, and weaker winds elsewhere early this morning. Certainly very dry however, with humidity below 20-25% across our central/southern foothills, Denver metro, and southern plains.

The incoming low pressure system will bring slightly cooler conditions today, but it'll still be plenty mild in the pre-frontal environment. In the plains, southeast winds will again mix down efficiently and will gust above 35 mph, sustaining critical fire weather conditions. Meanwhile, precipitation will increase in the high country early afternoon, but any activity east of the Front Range is likely to hold off until late afternoon or evening. Hefty northwest winds will develop in association with the front, producing gusts 45-55 mph across the higher terrain, foothills, and parts of the urban corridor, particularly towards the Cheyenne Ridge. This downslope flow will be rather desecating and likely limit precipitation coverage and amounts in the lee of the foothills, although parts of the plains could receive a little more and also see a few embedded thunderstorms through tonight.

Different story in the mountains however, especially the northern Front Range which is more typically favored for orographic enhancement under NW flow. The high country will also be better positioned to tap into the bulk of the moisture plume aloft. As such, have upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning mainly for those areas along the Continental Divide, where accumulations in favored locations could approach 18" (though, more generally, 6-12" will be more commmon). Winds will pack a punch as well along and east of the Divide, so blowing snow will lead to reduced visibilities at times.
Worst of the travel will be between this evening and Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/
Issued at 401 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Not much change to the forecast for Tuesday as the low moves east onto the plains. Guidance is still suggesting borderline high winds during the day over the northeast plains, so we've gone ahead with a High Wind Watch. Thought about including Greeley and eastern Adams/Arapahoe counties as well, but the threat looks a little lower there. This is mainly a plains gradient event, and it doesn't look like there will be a strongly amplified mountain wave, so we left the foothills out though the northern Larimer county foothills will likely have 60-70 mph gusts for a while.
It's still a little hard to believe there will be much rain on the plains given the strong downslope winds. We'll keep the fairly high PoPs for Tuesday morning, but this should be for small amounts of rain. It all goes away pretty quickly from west to east in the middle to later part of the day, and we've sped up the decrease of PoPs a bit.

Not a lot of clarity on the rest of the week. Guidance has trended back south a little bit with the jet and cooler air. There's a break early Wednesday, with a cold front in the afternoon and then the mid level overrunning moisture/QG lift/clouds/showers drop into at least the northern part of our area for Wednesday night and Thursday. There may be more of a break then we're showing later Thursday into early Friday as the lift should diminish, but then there's a resurgence of east winds ahead of another ripple in the jet and the moisture/shower band redevelops and nudges a bit further south again for Friday night. The colder models runs have it cold enough for a little snow on the plains with this, but there are plenty of warmer runs with all rain. We nudged the NBM snow levels up a little through all of this as the colder solutions plus the warmer but drier solutions push the wet bulb zero/snow level towards the lower end of the ensemble range. There could be a little light snow in there somewhere, but a pretty good chance it will be all rain. NBM temperatures were accepted, but it could stay a little warmer.

There's also a slowing trend to the drying as the back of that long east-west trough finally slides past us, with this happening now sometime on Saturday. That leaves Sunday with some weak ridging, although possibly some enhancement of a little diurnal shower/storm activity late if the upstream shortwave in some model runs turns out to be real.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/
Issued at 401 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions expected for all terminals through at least 6PM MT, Increasing potential for CIGS 050-070 after ~9 PM MT, with higher confidence in those becoming more persistent after 3 AM MT, along with likely arrival of some rain showers, especially east of I-25.

Expect strengthening SW winds early afternoon Monday before a frontal passage brings a transition to NW winds 6PM-8PM MT for the Denver metro. Daytime gusts tomorrow will exceed 30 kts much of the time, and occasionally may near 40 kts.

Issued at 401 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

With the cold front not impacting the lower elevations until late afternoon or into the evening, very dry conditions will again be widespread for the plains and urban corridor. Thankfully, fuels are in a little better shape across the urban corridor where green-up has been more substantial. This will relegate fire weather concerns primarily to the rural plains. With southeasterly winds gusting above 35 mph and locally 45 mph however, expect these areas to be firmly in Red Flag territory, with this afternoon representing the highest fire danger of the past several days. The current coverage of highlights looks perfect, so no changes made there.

It will be very windy on the plains Tuesday, but humidities will be higher and a few light showers are likely. Cooler weather is expected for the rest of the week with occasional mountain snow and a chance of showers on the plains. A brief windy period is expected Wednesday afternoon or evening behind a cold front.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ031.

Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ033-034.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for COZ038-042-044-046>051.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ241-244>251.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KAPA CENTENNIAL,CO 9 sm57 minS 0410 smA Few Clouds55°F21°F26%29.71
KBKF BUCKLEY AFB,CO 19 sm52 minSW 0410 smA Few Clouds61°F19°F20%29.69
Link to 5 minute data for KAPA

Wind History from APA
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GEOS Local Image of northern rockey   

Denver/Boulder, CO,

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