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FXUS65 KBOU 280255 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 755 PM MST Mon Nov 27 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warmer through midweek, cooler Thursday and Friday

- A chance of light mountain snow by Thursday

UPDATE
Issued at 744 PM MST Mon Nov 27 2023

No changes needed to forecast package. High pressure ridge aloft building west of Colorado with a moderate northwest flow aloft.
There is some high level moisture streaming in from the north but not to deter much from mostly clear skies tonight. Cross sections do show a bit stronger westerly downsloping flow tonight so could see a few gusts in the mountains of 20 to 35 mph through early Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM MST Mon Nov 27 2023

Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop significantly again tonight, with the lows controlled by elevation, snow cover, and the starting point at the end of today.
This will put the coldest values on the plains in the valleys of Weld county. There will be some moderation over the east slopes of the Front Range where there will be some downslope wind, and into the Denver area where it did get warmer today and there will be a little bit of drainage wind. Elbert and Lincoln counties will also be warmer as the snow is gone, though we could still have a good cold spot in the valley around Limon and Hugo. There should be some moderation in the mountains, but just a few degrees warmer than last night. There will likely be some thin cirrus drifting from Wyoming across northern areas, but it's not likely to have much effect.

For Tuesday, we expect about 5 degrees of warming everywhere, with the same pattern of colder air trapped in the snow covered valleys.
This was all well covered in the previous forecast.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 133 PM MST Mon Nov 27 2023

Tuesday night into Wednesday, flow aloft becomes more zonal ahead of an approaching trough to the west. Expect mainly clear skies Wednesday with highs in the 50s for the plains and urban corridor, 40s for the foothills, and 30s for the remainder of the high country.

The next system approaches into Thursday. Ensemble guidance is consistent with positioning it south resulting in less synoptic support for our region. Despite that, there is some moisture return across the high country and weak ascent which will help support orographic snow showers Thursday. Any accumulation will be very light. A cold front will move through early Thursday morning resulting in a cooler day with highs in the 30s. Expect increased cloud cover over the lower elevations; however, a low chance for any precipitation.

Friday through the weekend, a few additional upper level troughs move through Colorado with the region under general WSW flow aloft.
This will bring another couple of round of light scattered snow showers for the high country each day. The main trough axis finally pushes through Sunday into Monday followed by the onset of enhanced NW flow aloft. This may bring increased winds across the mountains/foothills and portions of the east plains Sun/Mon. Snow decreases over the high country. Ridging/subsidence should help bring temperatures back up toward above normal highs across the lower elevations for early next week.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 426 PM MST Mon Nov 27 2023

VFR with mainly clear skies through period. Light southeast surface winds shifting south and southwest by later this evening before turning light east and southeast after 18z Tuesday.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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