Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Castle Pines, CO
May 7, 2024 12:25 PM MDT (18:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 5:23 AM Moonset 7:57 PM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 071757 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1157 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Periods of snow and blowing snow today with some travel impacts, especially above 10000 feet and across the Park Range/Rabbit Ears Pass.
- Widespread gusty winds continue today, with the strongest winds expected across the higher Foothills and over portions of the Palmer Divide.
- Freezing temperatures will occur over the Palmer Divide late tonight and possibly across other areas of the plains as well.
- Cool and unsettled pattern Wednesday through Friday.
- Warming Saturday through Monday with more normal late day convective chances
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/
Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
A stg storm system will remain over the wrn portions of the nrn High Plains with brisk WNW flow aloft across the area. Cross-sections show decent moisture in the mtns today with favorable orographics along with lapse rates around 8 c/km. In addition, position of upper level jet may lead to some enhancement of activity as well.
Thus will issue an advisory for all of the mtns. However, most impacts will be at or above 10000 ft over the higher passes, as very windy conditions continue with areas of blowing snow and poor visibility at times.
Elsewhere, from the foothills across the plains it will be another very windy day. Cross-sections show cross barrier flow won't be as stg with no mtn wave development shown. Thus winds should stay blo high wind criteria in most areas. There is one potential area that could see some gusts approaching high wind criteria, for a few hours early this aftn, across portions of ern Elbert and Lincoln counties. However, not sure how widespread it will be along with duration so have held off on issuing a warning. Meanwhile, with position of upper level jet and decent lapse rates can't rule out a few higher based showers moving across portions of the foothills and I-25 Corridor this aftn. As far as highs, will keep readings in the upper 50s to mid 60's across nern CO.
For tonight, moisture will linger in the mtns this evening. However, lapse rates will become more stable so any additional snow should be on the light side, with decreasing coverage by midnight. Overnight, a mtn wave is fcst to develop with cross-barrier flow increasing to 50-60kts. Thus, there could be a window of stronger winds for a few hours, in the 06z-12z time period, in the normal windy areas of the foothills. At this time, not sure about coverage and duration so will hold off on a warning. Finally, last thing to deal with is freezing temps across the plains late tonight into Wed morning.
Overall, confidence isn't high as to how widespread overage will be and duration of freezing temps. DESI yields the highest threat across the Palmer Divide so will upgrade this area to a warning.
Across the rest of the plains will leave the watch in place.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
The models show a pretty strong upper closed low/upper trough, east- west oriented, to our immediate north and northwest on Wednesday at 12Z. Models show this feature to sag slowly southward and over the northern half of Colorado through Wednesday and Wednesday night. By Thursday, weak east-west oriented troughing is still over the state with a closed circulation over the southern Great Basin. The synoptic scale energy with all this is nothing great for our CWA
The main effects will be quite a bit of cloudiness from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night with cooler than normal temperatures and a chance of precipitation especially over the northern half of the CWA In fact, showers will be likely along the northern border areas of the alpine zones. At this time, total snowfall amounts are not significant. The showers should be snow above 7,000 feet. Instability is lacking on Wednesday with limited instability over the western CWA by Thursday afternoon. Will leave the "slight chances" for thunderstorms in. For temperatures, Wednesday's highs will mainly be in the 50s over the plains and 20s-30s in the mountains. Thursday's highs are bit colder over the plains and tad warmer in the mountains.
For the later days, Friday through Monday, models keep the weak upper trough across Colorado with the upper closed low still over the southern Great Basin on Friday. The upper trough moves well east by Saturday, however, some weak upper circulation remnants are still progged over the Desert Southwest Saturday and over Utah on Sunday, then over Colorado on Monday. The airmass warms up through the four day period. There is weak synoptic scale energy in place much of the time. The afternoon instability gets better as well, which is reflected in the QPF fields. Models show late day convection along with thunderstorms with the best chances on Monday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
Today...VFR. Complicated wind forecast with predominant WSW surface flow. Issues come with any enhanced showery/virga activity that push the winds more directly west, especially for KDEN, for an hour or two this afternoon. Winds should begin to decrease by late afternoon and back slightly WNW. Medium confidence overall.
Tonight - Wednesday...VFR. Winds still on the decrease with a predominant WNW flow and some continued gustiness. Thinking gusts top out around 25 knots for our terminals. Medium confidence.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
Critical fire conditions will be in place this afternoon into the early evening across southeastern Elbert and southern Lincoln counties due to very windy conditions and low humidity.
Across the rest of the plains there will be elevated fire conditions.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ031- 033-034.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for COZ038>040-042>049.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ041.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ247.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1157 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Periods of snow and blowing snow today with some travel impacts, especially above 10000 feet and across the Park Range/Rabbit Ears Pass.
- Widespread gusty winds continue today, with the strongest winds expected across the higher Foothills and over portions of the Palmer Divide.
- Freezing temperatures will occur over the Palmer Divide late tonight and possibly across other areas of the plains as well.
- Cool and unsettled pattern Wednesday through Friday.
- Warming Saturday through Monday with more normal late day convective chances
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/
Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
A stg storm system will remain over the wrn portions of the nrn High Plains with brisk WNW flow aloft across the area. Cross-sections show decent moisture in the mtns today with favorable orographics along with lapse rates around 8 c/km. In addition, position of upper level jet may lead to some enhancement of activity as well.
Thus will issue an advisory for all of the mtns. However, most impacts will be at or above 10000 ft over the higher passes, as very windy conditions continue with areas of blowing snow and poor visibility at times.
Elsewhere, from the foothills across the plains it will be another very windy day. Cross-sections show cross barrier flow won't be as stg with no mtn wave development shown. Thus winds should stay blo high wind criteria in most areas. There is one potential area that could see some gusts approaching high wind criteria, for a few hours early this aftn, across portions of ern Elbert and Lincoln counties. However, not sure how widespread it will be along with duration so have held off on issuing a warning. Meanwhile, with position of upper level jet and decent lapse rates can't rule out a few higher based showers moving across portions of the foothills and I-25 Corridor this aftn. As far as highs, will keep readings in the upper 50s to mid 60's across nern CO.
For tonight, moisture will linger in the mtns this evening. However, lapse rates will become more stable so any additional snow should be on the light side, with decreasing coverage by midnight. Overnight, a mtn wave is fcst to develop with cross-barrier flow increasing to 50-60kts. Thus, there could be a window of stronger winds for a few hours, in the 06z-12z time period, in the normal windy areas of the foothills. At this time, not sure about coverage and duration so will hold off on a warning. Finally, last thing to deal with is freezing temps across the plains late tonight into Wed morning.
Overall, confidence isn't high as to how widespread overage will be and duration of freezing temps. DESI yields the highest threat across the Palmer Divide so will upgrade this area to a warning.
Across the rest of the plains will leave the watch in place.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/
Issued at 312 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
The models show a pretty strong upper closed low/upper trough, east- west oriented, to our immediate north and northwest on Wednesday at 12Z. Models show this feature to sag slowly southward and over the northern half of Colorado through Wednesday and Wednesday night. By Thursday, weak east-west oriented troughing is still over the state with a closed circulation over the southern Great Basin. The synoptic scale energy with all this is nothing great for our CWA
The main effects will be quite a bit of cloudiness from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night with cooler than normal temperatures and a chance of precipitation especially over the northern half of the CWA In fact, showers will be likely along the northern border areas of the alpine zones. At this time, total snowfall amounts are not significant. The showers should be snow above 7,000 feet. Instability is lacking on Wednesday with limited instability over the western CWA by Thursday afternoon. Will leave the "slight chances" for thunderstorms in. For temperatures, Wednesday's highs will mainly be in the 50s over the plains and 20s-30s in the mountains. Thursday's highs are bit colder over the plains and tad warmer in the mountains.
For the later days, Friday through Monday, models keep the weak upper trough across Colorado with the upper closed low still over the southern Great Basin on Friday. The upper trough moves well east by Saturday, however, some weak upper circulation remnants are still progged over the Desert Southwest Saturday and over Utah on Sunday, then over Colorado on Monday. The airmass warms up through the four day period. There is weak synoptic scale energy in place much of the time. The afternoon instability gets better as well, which is reflected in the QPF fields. Models show late day convection along with thunderstorms with the best chances on Monday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
Today...VFR. Complicated wind forecast with predominant WSW surface flow. Issues come with any enhanced showery/virga activity that push the winds more directly west, especially for KDEN, for an hour or two this afternoon. Winds should begin to decrease by late afternoon and back slightly WNW. Medium confidence overall.
Tonight - Wednesday...VFR. Winds still on the decrease with a predominant WNW flow and some continued gustiness. Thinking gusts top out around 25 knots for our terminals. Medium confidence.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 250 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024
Critical fire conditions will be in place this afternoon into the early evening across southeastern Elbert and southern Lincoln counties due to very windy conditions and low humidity.
Across the rest of the plains there will be elevated fire conditions.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ031- 033-034.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for COZ038>040-042>049.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ041.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ247.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAPA CENTENNIAL,CO | 9 sm | 21 min | W 21G27 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Lt Drizzle | 52°F | 23°F | 32% | 29.64 |
| KBKF BUCKLEY AFB,CO | 19 sm | 2.5 hrs | SW 16G26 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 54°F | 23°F | 30% | 29.63 |
Denver/Boulder, CO,
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