Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brooktrails, CA

KEY MESSAGES

-Strong north winds will build every afternoon. The strongest winds along shore and over high peaks in the interior. Peak gusts Friday near 30 kts and peak Gusts Saturday and Sunday near 40 kts.

-Generally clear skies and dry conditions even along shore through early next week.

-Slightly cooler conditions into the weekend warming through next week.



DISCUSSION

SHORT TERM
High pressure building over the Pacific has helped increase north winds today along shore. This hes brought afternoon gusts near 30 mph in exposed areas and has fully mixed out any coastal stratus. Marine air pushing inland has slightly cooled conditions despite the high pressure with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s.

A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the central pacific through the weekend. This ridge is already helping to generate moderate northwest winds gusting near 25 kts along shore. Thursday afternoon. The pressure gradient will tighten and align along shore into the weekend as high pressure continues to build but stall offshore. This will bring unusually strong northwest winds again on Saturday along shore and across most of the interior.
North winds will gust near 40 mph in exposed areas by Saturday afternoon. Winds will be stubbornly consistent and widespread in the afternoon, though gusts will most likely stay below advisory criteria with limited potential for impacts or damage. The wind will pull marine influence far inland and keep low levels well mixed, generally limiting high temperatures to the mid 60s and 70s for Saturday. Coastal conditions will remain cool despite winds keeping skies mostly clear.

High pressure will begin to push inland Sunday and into early next week. The strongest North winds will shift towards the Sacramento Valley in response while winds will remain breezy near shore on Sunday, the strongest winds will shift to Lake County with gusts over 40 mph at high elevations and along the rim of the Sacramento Valley. At the same time, north winds Sunday will pull more air from the interior, promoting very dry conditions, especially far form the coast.

LONG TERM
Winds will begin to weaken Monday through mid next week as high pressure settles further onshore. Conditions will remain very dry with interior highs gradually approaching the 90s by mid week. Any HeatRisk currently appears minor at most. A building inversion and weaker winds will likely allow a very shallow marine layer to begin reforming onshore, though offshore flow overnight will generally limit the extent of any stratus. Models diverge on the pattern late next week. Will seasonal but dry zonal flow is most likely, roughly 30 percent of models show a weak trough that could bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to the northern half of the area around next weekend. /JHW

AVIATION
VFR conditions across all TAF aerodromes. Breezy surface NW winds around 10-20 kts for the terminals, with stronger gusts up to 30 kts this afetrnoon and evening. Winds are expected to ease after 16/03Z. In addition, increasing mid- to high-level clouds is expected late this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. A period of MVFR ceilings is likely after 16/06Z with VCSH for KCEC, and after 16/09Z for KACV. Saturday, expect another day with VFR conditions and breezy to gusty during the afternoon and evening. /ZVS



MARINE
Strong to gale force gusts across the coastal waters, with the strongest winds south of Cape Mendocino. Gusts up to around 40 kts are likely for south of Cape Mendocino this afternoon and evening.

Tonight, Winds will slightly diminish as a shortwave trough move trough. However, winds will rapidly accelerate in the wake of the trough on Saturday with a moderate to strong pressure gradient near the coast. Expect near-gale to gale force wind gusts developing across all coastal waters by Saturday afternoon and perssist through early next week, especially for the outer waters and downwind of Cape Mendocino. Gusts from 34 to around 45 kts are likley, with the strongest in the leeward of Cape Mendocino. A Gale Warning is now in effect for the northern waters from Saturday aftenoon through late Sunday night/Monday morning. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the southern waters.



FIRE WEATHER
Building north winds each afternoon into the weekend will increase fire weather concerns. Winds will be strongest near shore but also along interior ridges and well aligned valleys. Winds on Friday afternoon have already shown gusts over 30 mph, though marine influence has kept RH and temperatures moderate. The strongest winds will approach gusts near 40 mph by Saturday afternoon. The strongest gusts will focus closer to shore Saturday.
Winds through Saturday will generally pull in more moist marine air. This will help keep temperatures subdued with only moderate minimum RH around 30 percent. That said winds will also slightly tamp down overnight RH recovery closer to 80 percent at low elevations and 50 percent higher up through Saturday.

High pressure will shift more onshore by Sunday. Strong afternoon winds will continue, but the focus of stronger winds will shift closer to the rim of the Sacramento Valley, especially in Lake County. Winds will pull in drier air by Sunday, supporting very dry afternoon conditions in eastern Mendocino, Trinity, and Lake Counties with minimum RH near 15 percent. Overnight RH recovery will continue to worsen with upper elevation recoveries very poor by Monday morning. Winds will begin to weaken early next week but very dry conditions will remain with increasing day time temperatures.

All that said, fuels generally retain a spring character. Although ERC values are forecast to jump up near record values for May, grasses remain mostly green for all locations but some of the hottest valleys in Lake and Mendocino Counties. Heavier fuels are retaining moderate moisture. Despite critical weather variables, fuels are very unlikely to support extreme fire at this time, hence a Red Flag Warning is not currently expected for these conditions in Lake, Trinity, or Mendocino Counties. This event, however, will likely push fuel towards a drier and more conducive state for fire in the coming weeks. /JHW



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ450-470.

Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470.

Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475.