Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brooktrails, CA

DISCUSSION
Dry air over the area will cause overnight temperatures for the interior to drop as low as freezing again by early this morning.
Freeze Warning and Frost Advisories have been issued for some of the coldest interior valleys. It is recommended to cover sensitive plants and take other precautions to protect agricultural property. Icy roads also pose a possible threat through the morning. Coastal areas will remain slightly warmer this morning as coastal stratus forms.

This weekend's storm track has continued to vary. Global models continue to signal a cutoff low forming and lingering just east of the 140W longitude from today through Wednesday. This storm will move southward before stalling, increasing the chance for rainfall across the entire CWA Ample moisture will be available, the main uncertainty will be if the main moisture flux lines up with orographic lift. Global Ensemble models shows >80% probabilities of IVT values over 250kg/m/s from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. A majority of ensembles members show IVT values between 200-400 IVT. This very weak AR will funnel this moisture over the area from Sunday through Tuesday, yet Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon looks to be rainiest period as the moisture plume flows over the terrain. NBM data shows the heaviest rainfall totals of 1.50-3.00" for the King Range and mountains in northern Mendocino County. Elsewhere, rain looks to be between 0.50- 1.00" for valleys and between 0.75-1.50" for interior mountains not mentioned above. Snow levels are generally expected to be around 5,000 feet and only a slight dusting of snow (~1.0") is forecasted for Scott Mountain Pass (5,450ft).

Widespread rain could evolve into rainshowers as soon as Monday evening lessening the widespread coverage. Showers may linger as late as Thursday morning as the upper level low slowly takes its time moving eastward, continuing to funnel moisture into the area. The GFS and ECMWF both show dry weather with warm daytime highs and cold nighttime lows returning for the end of the coming week. DS

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)...Depending on how much offshore flow weakens early this morning, stratus may form near the coast, especially around Humboldt Bay. Some models are showing a southerly wind reversal developing off the North Coast before sunrise, which would push any stratus towards CEC. NBM shows around a 60% to 65% chance for at least MVFR conditions at both CEC and ACV. Should stratus develop and impact the terminals, IFR/LIFR conditions are likely.
Any stratus and fog will likely lift by mid/late morning. VFR is anticipated for most inland terminals

MARINE
Northerly winds have generally subsided today, though some areas of 15 to 20 kt gusts are possible in the outer waters and the lee of Cape Mendocino early this morning. Seas remain steep at around 6 to 8 ft at 8 to 10 seconds. These will continue to subside as winds ease through today. A frontal system moves through the area Sunday morning. Winds will increase and turn southerly. Wind gusts are forecast to peak at around 20 to 25 kts, but there is a low-end chance (20%) for gale force gusts Sunday and Monday in the outer waters. Wind speeds and direction is highly dependent on the track of the low, which is currently forecast to move near or through the waters Monday into Tuesday. A mid-period west swell will also arrive Monday, peaking at around 8 to 10 ft at 12 seconds. Winds and seas gradually subside late Tuesday into Wednesday as the low moves out of the area. Stronger northerly winds return late next week behind this low. JB



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ106-110- 114-118.

Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ108-116- 117.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.