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FXUS65 KREV 090811 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1211 AM PST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Aside from one weather system passing across northern NV, a quiet weather pattern will be in place this weekend and most of next week. A change to a more active weather pattern may occur after Dec 16.

DISCUSSION

This Weekend...
Seasonable December temperatures with light winds will start the weekend. A weather system passing across northern Nevada late Sunday into early Monday will lead to a 20-30% chance of light rain/snow for northern Lassen/Washoe/Pershing and the Surprise Valley. Winds will pick up a bit as the system passes but nothing out of the ordinary.

Next Week...
Behind the late weekend weather system winds will turn to the north and northeast with a few degrees of cooling. Northeast to east winds should turn gusty over the Sierra Crest on Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface high settles over northern Nevada. Surface inversions will also allow pollutants to build near population centers and limit smoke dispersion for any prescribed fire projects most of the week.

Pattern Change...
Simulations continue to develop an active pattern and a strong jet stream across the Pacific late next week, perhaps reaching the Sierra in the Dec 16-18 time frame. Current Atmospheric River outlooks show a north-south orientation to the moisture feed, which is not the most favorable set up for abundant Sierra snowfall and western NV precipitation. The active pattern may continue into the Holidays. Brong

AVIATION

Light winds and dry conditions today and Saturday with overnight and morning fog around TRK and northern Sierra valleys.

Ridge level winds increase Sunday to near 30 kts with mountain wave activity over the Sierra as a weather system passes across northern Nevada. This system will also bring a 15-25% chance of rain and snow showers north of SVE-LOL late Sunday into early Monday. Brong

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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