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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Reno, NV

June 25, 2024 7:59 AM PDT (14:59 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM
Moonrise 11:44 PM   Moonset 9:22 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reno, NV
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Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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956 FXUS65 KREV 251014 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 314 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS

* There is a 15-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms today, most likely to occur in the afternoon and early evening, and across areas as far north as I-80. A few showers may persist overnight into early Wednesday morning.

* Strong gusty winds will bring choppy lakes and heightened fire weather concerns Wednesday.

* The warmth will continue through the weekend with only a brief dip to near normal Thursday behind a frontal system.

DISCUSSION

* Main change overnight was to add the northern Sierra Front to the Fire Weather Watch Wednesday. Also, post frontal winds do not look as strong Thursday although it is still going to be breezy and very dry.

* Moisture continues to increase with PWATs already exceeding 1.00" over southern NV. Model ensembles show PWATs near this level across much of the eastern Sierra and western NV today, and locally as high as 1.20" south of Hwy 50. Normally, we convect early and cloud over, resulting in more showers and less lightning potential as the day goes on with these values.
Blended guidance continues to show decent thunder potential (30-40%) this afternoon and the HRRR Composite Reflectivity ensemble indicates storms firing as early as 11 am to noon along the eastern Sierra with storms lifting north and east through the afternoon before decreasing after 00Z as skies cloud over and heating support wanes. If we can get enough heating early, then a few stronger storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall this afternoon. While storms will diminish in the evening, there are indications that additional showers will continue overnight across western NV and far northeast CA.

* Winds will be the next problem as a trough advances inland over the PacNW and pushes a front through the northern Great Basin late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds aloft increase late tonight and early Wednesday morning then peak late Wednesday (700 mb winds 30-35 kts). Tightening gradients/strong mixing will allow for sustained winds to reach 20-25 mph across areas near and north of I-80 with gusts approaching 40 mph in the windiest spots. This will bring rough lake waters and heightened fire weather concerns as drier air works back into these areas. Winds will stay up across the ridges Wednesday night/early Thursday morning as the front makes its way through the area.

* LONG TERM(Thursday and beyond): The frontal passage will arrive Thursday, bringing in dry northwest winds. Although wind speeds will have dwindled from Wednesday, we will still see valley gusts of 30 mph and Sierra ridge gusts of 45+ mph. With the drier air come concerns for lower relative humidity values across the region. Any fires that may have started from early week convection may carry on the gusty breezes and further the drying of fuels. Friday we will settle into a more zonal upper level pattern, with a ridge starting to build into the Intermountain West for Saturday with afternoon breezes. Then for Sunday yet another dry trough will swing through the Pacific Northwest, reintroducing breezy winds and knocking a couple degrees off of daytime highs. Looking into the first week of July, things look to heat up again while a dry trough along the PacNW coast will keep shower activity out of our area. HRICH

AVIATION

* Storm chances increase and expand northward today with a 25-40% chance along the eastern Sierra from KMEV-KMMH and generally a 10-20% elsewhere. Storms will start as early as 18-20Z along the eastern Sierra, then advance north and east across western NV during the afternoon and early evening. Erratic outflows to 35 kts and very heavy rainfall will accompany stronger cells.

* Typical SW-W afternoon breezes will be confined to mainly far northeast CA and northwest NV today with lighter winds elsewhere outside of storm outflows.

* A trough will bring drier conditions Wednesday, but much stronger winds as FL100 winds increase to 25-35 kts. Strongest winds will north of Hwy 50 where sustained winds will reach 15-20 kts with gusts as high as 35 kt. Moderate turbulence Wednesday may continue overnight as winds aloft remain elevated ahead of the main cold front that is expected to drop through the region Thursday.

Hohmann

FIRE WEATHER

* Main change was to add the Northern Sierra Front (NVZ420) to the fire weather watch Wednesday.

* For today, storms will fire early (possibly late morning) along the Eastern Sierra of Mono Co and far western Mineral/southern Lyon counties (30-40% chance), then lifting north and east for a 10-25% chance of storms as far north as I-80 in the afternoon.
Moisture has increased considerably and we expect stronger storms to be capable of very heavy rainfall. As storms push farther north and east, heating may wane a bit as cloud cover thickens and we lose our primary lift from daytime heating. This could result in a decrease in storms as we make it toward late afternoon or early evening. How fast this occurs will dictate the lightning coverage too.

* Drier air and stronger winds arrive Wednesday as a trough moves through the PacNW. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph will combine with RH below 15% to bring critical fire weather to much of NW NV and northeast CA. Latest guidance indicates RH levels will fall very close to 15% along the Sierra Front where strong winds are expected. So we have added Fire Zone 420 to the watch. Winds will be more marginal farther south although localized critical conditions may occur across Churchill County in the northern part of Fire Zone 429. Also, while winds will not quite reach criteria in these southern areas, drier air and breezy conditions may be an issue for any holdovers from lightning that occurs today.

* Winds will be breezy out of the northwest Thursday, generally 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph. These forecast speeds are down a bit from what we were seeing Monday. It still looks much drier Thursday afternoon with RH dropping to 8-15% across much of western NV.

Hohmann

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening NVZ420-423-458.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening CAZ270-278.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KRNO RENO/TAHOE INTL,NV 2 sm4 minNW 0310 smMostly Cloudy73°F52°F47%30.11
KRTS RENO/STEAD,NV 15 sm4 mincalm10 smClear70°F45°F40%30.16
KCXP CARSON,NV 20 sm4 mincalm10 smClear72°F54°F53%30.14
KTRK TRUCKEETAHOE,CA 22 sm7 mincalm10 smMostly Cloudy54°F46°F77%30.23
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Reno, NV,




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