Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chesapeake City, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1. A slow moving cold front will cross the area through today bringing several rounds of rain, heavy at times.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A slow moving cold front will cross the area through today bringing several rounds of rain, heavy at times.

As of 7 AM this morning, a diffuse cold front was located over NW NJ extending south and westward through SE PA into Delmarva. There has been an initial round of heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms that's been moving through and this has brought rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches over portions of NJ running from northern Gloucester County north and eastward through portions of Camden, Burlington, Ocean, and Monmouth Counties. This has even resulted in some instances of flash flooding early this morning. Motorists are urged to use extra caution and allow extra time for their morning commute. Following this initial round of heavy rainfall, there will likely be a bit of a lull with just some lighter rain until another round of potentially heavier showers moves through around late morning into this afternoon. With the cold front continuing to slowly push southeastward with time, expect that heaviest rain with this second batch to again be focused mainly near and especially southeast of the urban corridor towards the coast. It also should not be as heavy as what we've been seeing early this morning as the greater moisture and instability will be getting pushed south and eastward with the front so any additional flooding should be fairly localized.

Conditions will gradually improve as we go through this afternoon and especially for areas N/W of the I-95 corridor. Remaining areas may not see substantial improvement until the evening hours.

The cold front departs offshore tonight, with dry conditions returning for much of the area. However, guidance indicates an upper- low will track eastward across northern portions of the area on Saturday. This will lead to a lingering chance for some light rain north of I-78, with the highest chances (40-50%) across the Poconos and far northern NJ. By Sunday morning, the upper-low will be east of the area bringing a return of dry conditions to the region along with cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR expected at KRDG/KABE. Rain will continue to impact the I-95 terminals through around 20-22Z before moving out, with continued MVFR/IFR restrictions probable. Rain and a few embedded storms are expected to continue through the daytime hours at KMIV/KACY. Winds generally west-northwest around 5 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Prevailing VFR expected, though a few lingering showers could still lead to brief periods of MVFR restrictions at KMIV/KACY. Northwest winds around 5 kt, increasing after 08-10Z to around 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt possible, especially for KILG/KMIV/KACY. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...VFR. Northwest winds around around 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR. Gusty WNW winds possible on Monday. Otherwise, no significant weather.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon, mainly for seas 3 to 5 feet. SSW winds around 15-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts possible in the afternoon with rain. We've also issued a Marine Dense Fog Advisory for all of our ocean zones through this afternoon based on latest web cams and obs. Winds and seas subside below SCA criteria after the frontal passage in the evening with fog improving at this time as well.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Advisory conditions will be likely at times with west-northwest winds 15-20 kt gusting to 25-30 kt.
Highest confidence in advisory conditions is currently late Saturday into early portions of Sunday and again on Monday. Seas generally 4- 6 feet through the period.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ450>455.
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>455- 480>483-485.