Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake City, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:31PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 12:51 PM EDT (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:22AMMoonset 1:57PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1037 Am Edt Tue Jul 14 2020
Rest of today..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1037 Am Edt Tue Jul 14 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will then build across the area through Wednesday before moving offshore. A front may approach from the north late in the week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters late Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake City, MD
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location: 39.5, -75.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 141021 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 621 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build into the eastern U.S. through midweek. A backdoor cold front will move south into the area late tonight and Wednesday before lifting northward as a warm front on Thursday and Friday. A weak cold front will approach the East Coast near the end of the week into the weekend, but high pressure in the Southeast will likely aid in its stalling and eventual dissipation.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 615 am update: No changes to the forecast required.

A potent midlevel trough is moving into New England at this time and will continue its eastward movement today. The trough axis is expected to be offshore by early afternoon, with large- scale descent likely encompassing the region thereafter. Models (convection-allowing and coarser deterministic) are skittish in producing convection near the vorticity maximum in our CWA today, and given the unfavorable position/timing of the trough, I went with a dry forecast today. Having said that, a stray shower/storm is possible, especially near/north of I-80, but chances are simply too low at a given location to justify PoPs at this time.

At the surface, high pressure will move slowly through the Midwest today, with a cold front attendant to the trough slowly migrating farther and farther offshore. In between, weak cold/dry advection should occur, with the result being mostly sunny skies and fairly comfortable humidity levels. Given the degree of insolation and slight downsloping component expected, highs will likely be near to slightly above seasonal averages.

The surface high will progress into the Appalachians by 12z Wednesday, with a quiet night expected in our area as winds decouple and dew points remain seasonably comfortable. Lows are expected to be near or slightly above seasonal averages.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. This period will continue to be dominated by surface high pressure, as it migrates eastward through the Northeast. Notably, however, this will change wind directions to northeasterly or easterly early in the day. Such onshore flow often results in cooler temperatures, and notably, the MET guidance is trending a few degrees downward for highs. However, the other guidance is not really sold on this, owing to a few factors. First, midlevel ridging will strengthen across the area, and these height rises may translate into warmer temperatures than otherwise would be expected. The second factor would be the lack of cloud cover. With the climatological peak of the year in terms of warmth (and near peak regarding insolation), temperatures may warm readily despite cooler backward trajectories. Third, it may take some time for the cold advection to take hold across the area (i.e., more noticeable on Thursday, especially as cloud cover increases Wednesday night).

Expecting the most noticeable cooling to be near the coast and in the far northeastern CWA, where onset of onshore flow will be soonest. Highs near the coast may not reach 80, while the urban corridor may still approach 90. However, the forecast is of below-average confidence, as the NAM-based guidance typically is on to something in these regimes. Lows Wednesday night will likely be in the 60s across the CWA. With midlevel ridging in place, expecting a dry 24-hour period for the region.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Several concerns for the medium-range period, including an approaching front at the end of the week, its eventual stalling and dissipation this weekend, and the return of heat/humidity/diurnal convection next week.

A midlevel vort max will approach the Northeast on Thursday, with large-scale ascent downstream aiding in the development of convection along and in advance of the attendant front moving into the central Appalachians during the afternoon. Deterministic models are beginning to converge on a solution here, with most developing fairly widespread coverage of storms in the higher terrain to the west of the area. Usually, there is spillover into the western CWA in these setups (generally underestimated by coarser guidance), but areas east of the urban corridor may remain dry given lingering effects of midlevel ridging. Fine-tuned PoPs considerably for Thursday, mainly keeping slight-chance to chance categories confined to areas west of the Fall Line.

Models simulate convection spreading eastward into the area during the overnight hours, which seems pretty reasonable given the strength of the approaching trough and associated large- scale ascent. Increased PoPs eastward for this period. However, the front only makes slow progress eastward given the strength of ridging south and east of the trough, so expecting more convection on Friday. Given the slow nature of the front and anomalous moisture expected to be in place by this time (PWs near 2 inches, e.g.), think locally heavy rainfall may be a concern with this system. Additionally, unperturbed preconvective CAPE on Friday will likely exceed 1000-1500 J/kg (muted perhaps by lingering capping from the antecedent ridge) in an environment of 20-30 kt deep-layer shear. Will need to watch this period both for local severe/hydro hazards.

The front will only make slow progress southeastward this weekend, and deterministic guidance at least suggests the possibility of convection developing on Saturday, especially in southern portions of the area, closer to the consensus projected location of the gradually dissipating boundary. However, given the expected demise of the front, cannot rule out convection entirely anywhere, though certainly not expecting a washout. With the dying front, south/southwest winds may become reestablished, allowing for increased heat/humidity.

Midlevel ridging should increase late in the weekend, with the development of a prefrontal trough possible by Sunday afternoon. Cannot rule out isolated convection with this setup, mainly in the western CWA, but expecting conditions to be dry for most. With south/southwest flow continuing and midlevel ridging increasing, expect the heat machine to begin in earnest. Highs 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages are expected, with dew points high enough by this point to result in heat indices approaching heat-advisory levels.

The trend only worsens on Monday, as warm/moist advection continue in advance of an approaching perturbation. Consensus forecasts are for highs in the mid 90s in the urban corridor by this point, with dew points in the 70s. Should this occur, heat advisories would likely be required for portions of the area. However, the aforementioned perturbation may provide for increased chances of convection, with both the 00z GFS/ECMWF suggesting this potential Monday afternoon/evening. Given the stagnant pattern (zonal flow to our north and broad ridging to our south), hot/humid conditions with near-daily rounds of convection seem probable well into next week.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR with west to northwest winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR with light winds. Directions may be predominantly northerly or possibly even northeasterly late, but will likely be rather variable at most terminals. Moderate confidence.

Outlook . Wednesday . Mainly VFR with winds becoming east or southeast 5 to 15 kt. High confidence.

Wednesday night . Some potential for sub-VFR CIGs/VSBYs as east/southeast winds 5 to 10 kt continue, especially near the coast. Low confidence.

Thursday . Mainly VFR with southeast winds 5 to 15 kt. A slight chance of storms, mainly for RDG/ABE. Moderate confidence.

Thursday night through Friday night . A chance of showers/storms with brief restrictions possible in their proximity. Mainly VFR outside of convection, though some patchy fog may develop during the overnight hours in locations where rain occurred. Mainly south winds 5 to 15 kt (lighter at night). Low confidence.

Saturday . A slight chance of showers/storms with brief restrictions possible. Mainly VFR outside of convection. Southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. Sub-advisory winds/seas are expected through tonight. Winds will likely become southerly for a time today before fairly quickly becoming northwesterly this evening. Thereafter, directions will gradually become north or even northeast by daybreak Wednesday. Speeds will generally be 5 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 feet should be expected.

Outlook . Wednesday through Thursday . Sub-advisory winds/seas and fair weather expected.

Thursday night through Saturday . Sub-advisory winds/seas expected. A chance of storms, especially on Friday and Friday night, with locally higher waves and strong wind gusts in their proximity.

Rip Currents .

Breaking waves are forecast to be 2 feet or less with a medium- period southeast swell along the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey today. A light and variable wind in the morning is forecast to settle into the south around 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. The risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is expected to be low.

The wave and swell conditions are anticipated to remain nearly the same for Wednesday. However, the wind is forecast to become easterly around 10 to 15 mph. The low risk of rip currents is expected to continue.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . CMS Near Term . CMS Short Term . CMS Long Term . CMS Aviation . CMS Marine . CMS Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi82 min 84°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 18 mi82 min 78°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 19 mi82 min 82°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi82 min 83°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi82 min 81°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi82 min 79°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi82 min 83°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD13 mi1.9 hrsNNW 410.00 miA Few Clouds80°F62°F55%1015.8 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi61 minNW 1010.00 miFair83°F59°F44%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W4CalmCalmS6SW5CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW4N4Calm
1 day agoS8S12S11S9S8SW4CalmCalmW7CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmN3N6N8N8
2 days agoS9SW6W9SW7SW8W8W11W5W8W6W5CalmW5W3SW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW6S4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     1.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:21 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:22 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.31.72.32.7332.92.72.321.81.61.61.71.92.22.32.221.61.20.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:46 AM EDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:22 AM EDT     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:55 AM EDT     0.06 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:50 PM EDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:17 PM EDT     -0.09 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:50 PM EDT     -2.07 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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01.21.71.81.61-0.5-1.1-1.4-1.4-10.30.91.41.71.91.60.8-1.1-1.7-2-2.1-1.9-1.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.