Sunday, February23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake City, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:49PM Sunday February 23, 2020 9:39 AM EST (14:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:07AMMoonset 5:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 637 Am Est Sun Feb 23 2020
Today..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Rain likely.
Tue night..E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed..E winds 5 kt...becoming w. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 637 Am Est Sun Feb 23 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain just south of the waters this weekend. Low pressure will pass through the ohio valley Monday into Tuesday and another low will pass through the waters Wednesday. A strong cold front associated with this low will pass through late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure will build overhead late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake City, MD
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location: 39.5, -75.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 231136 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 636 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the area moves offshore late Sunday and Sunday night. Low pressure develops over the Midwest and lifts to the northeast for the start of the work week. Several waves of low pressure will then impact the area through the end of the week until a strong cold front passes through the region. Arctic high pressure returns next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 630 AM Update . Forecast is on track. No update required at this time.

Prev Discussion-> Surface high pressure will slowly head east this afternoon with a weak mid-level wave moving overhead. The wave is currently located over the Great Lakes with only some cirrus forming in response. This afternoon 850 mb temperatures stay around 2 degrees C, but increased mixing will likely equate to a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday (or mid 50s for most of the region). Dewpoints will also likely mix out again today, as has been the case for the last several days, thanks to PWATs remaining around a tenth of an inch. A weak sea breeze will then move inland this evening resulting in a slight backing of the winds and increase in moisture.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/. This evening a weak sea breeze will stall around the PA/ NJ state line with mostly clear skies. The back edge of the wave will then approach the area with the GFS, NAM, and RAP indicating a transient mid-level deck moving across the area.

Monday, a closed low will be heading east across the central United States with surface high pressure now offshore. The wave will then open up near Missouri Monday evening. As of current, it appears the near term will remain precipitation free as the dry continental air mass will take time to dislodge. Highs Monday will be in the upper 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Expect an active week with several disturbances across the the Mid Atlantic followed by a final cold front late in the week bringing an arctic airmass to the region.

The high pressure from the weekend will be sliding off shore as a closed low tracks into the Ohio Valley region. This will bring warm air advection and rainfall into to the region in the form of a warm front on Tuesday. Warm air advection continues under modest southerly flow Tuesday night before a second strong low pressure system closes off over the great lakes and tracks through the Saint Lawrence Valley. Trends in the 12z guidance yesterday and the 00z suite this morning were to weaken a northern stream low up near the Hudson Bay which leads me to believe in the surface low that will affect our region to be more of the Saint Lawrence Valley origin rather than a potential coastal low setup. This is pretty much the going consensus now for the GFS/EC/GEM and their ensembles.

Wednesday and Wednesday evening will likely be a washout with widespread rainfall over the region. Anticipate on the order of one half to an inch of rain with could be locally heavy at times. As the low deepens to our north and west an intense dry slot pushes into eastern PA and all of NJ Thursday morning. The soundings are showing a fairly classic drizzle setup so I've changed the precip type forecast for Wednesday to be more drizzle than rain and with no saturation in the icing layer we shouldn't expect any wintry precip.

Behind the low, a cold front pushes through the region Thursday afternoon returning temperatures closer to normal, with highs generally in the 30s in the Poconos, and otherwise in the low to mid 40s, possibly approaching 50 in southern Delmarva.

A stronger cold front then passes through Thursday night into Friday morning bringing an Arctic airmass down into New England and the Mid- Atlantic. While dry, we should see temps falling quite a way below normal heading into and over the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. Southwest wind 5 knots or less, becoming south as a weak sea breeze moves inland. A weak wave will also translate east bringing a ~7/8kft deck across the terminals. High confidence.

Monday . VFR with increasing cloud cover through the day. S/SW wind 5 to 10 knots. No significant weather expected.

Outlook .

Monday night . Mainly VFR, with MVFR ceilings late. A chance of rain. South wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence on timing and coverage of any rainfall.

Tuesday . MVFR with periods of IFR possible in rain. Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Tuesday night through Wednesday Night . Generally IFR improving to MVFR as rainfall clears the region. Winds light and variable Tuesday night becoming east 5-10 knots Wednesday.

Thursday . Generally MVFR improving to VFR. West winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

MARINE. Sub- SCA conditions expected with seas generally running 2 to 4 feet. Westerly winds becoming southerly around 10 knots.

Outlook .

Sunday night through Monday . Sub-SCA conditions expected. Wind gusts up to 15 kt. Wave heights up to 3 feet

Monday night and Tuesday night . Wind gusts to 20 kt. Wave heights up to 4 feet. Rain expected Tuesday.

Wednesday and Wednesday night . SCA conditions likely by Wednesday night with wind gust up to 25kts and wave heights increasing to 4 to 7 feet. Rain expected Wednesday night.

Thursday . SCA conditions likely with gales possible late. Wind gusts to 30 kt. Wave heights up to 7 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Deal Near Term . Haines Short Term . Haines Long Term . Deal Aviation . Deal/Haines Marine . Deal/Haines


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi57 min Calm G 1 34°F 40°F1025.7 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 18 mi51 min Calm G 2.9 39°F 45°F1025.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 19 mi57 min 35°F 41°F1024.9 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi57 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 38°F 41°F1025.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 32 mi51 min SW 1.9 G 2.9
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi57 min 35°F 41°F1025 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi63 min SSW 1.9 G 8.9 38°F 1024.7 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi57 min Calm G 1.9 35°F 43°F1024.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 38 mi51 min SE 6 G 8 35°F 1025.1 hPa
CPVM2 43 mi51 min 38°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi51 min 40°F 1024.9 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD13 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miFair26°F23°F90%1026.1 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair38°F25°F60%1025.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9SW8SW7W8W9W10W11W9W6----W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN9N7
G14
N7NE74N4N4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--W3W3W3W4CalmCalmW3W8
2 days agoE6NE5N3N3CalmSW3W4S5CalmN3NE5N4N6N11N7N8N7N7N6N5N6N6NW7N8
G19

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:15 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:31 AM EST     1.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:33 AM EST     New Moon
Sun -- 03:37 PM EST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:53 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:29 PM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.20.70.30.10.20.50.91.31.51.51.20.80.3-0.2-0.5-0.5-0.30.20.81.41.82.12.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:34 AM EST     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:54 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:39 AM EST     1.97 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:26 AM EST     -0.08 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:33 AM EST     New Moon
Sun -- 12:46 PM EST     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:38 PM EST     0.04 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:53 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:18 PM EST     2.12 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:45 PM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-1.5-1.4-10.41.41.91.91.60.9-1-1.7-2-2.1-2-1.6-1.10.91.82.121.71.1-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.