Wednesday, September30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake City, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:48PM Wednesday September 30, 2020 10:27 AM EDT (14:27 UTC) Moonrise 5:42PMMoonset 4:34AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 737 Am Edt Wed Sep 30 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Today..W winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 737 Am Edt Wed Sep 30 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build to the south today before a reinforcing cold front passes through Thursday into Thursday night. Canadian high pressure will build overhead for Friday and Saturday. A small craft advisory may be required Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake City, MD
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location: 39.5, -75.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 301418 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1018 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front passed through our region during the night and it will move farther out to sea today, bringing a return to more seasonable fall-like weather. A weak wave of low pressure will ride along the East Coast on Thursday night into Friday, but high pressure brings a return to dry weather for the weekend. A coastal storm may form over New England into the early portion of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. All rain has ended across the area now that the front is well to our east. The rest of the day will be dominated partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies as some stratocumulus clouds will remain across the area, especially portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Winds will continue to be gusty mostly out of the west for much of the day, but shifting to the southwest later this afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20-30 mph at times for some area. High temperatures are expected to range from the 60s in the Poconos to the lower 70s on the coastal plain.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/. Dry weather is forecast to continue into tonight. A secondary cold front is expected to approach from the northwest late tonight. The boundary will have limited moisture associated with it. It may bring an increase in cloud cover to parts of eastern Pennsylvania, and northern and central New Jersey.

A light southwest to south wind is expected for tonight with low temperatures generally in the 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A progressive weather pattern continues into the weekend and early next week as a mid-level trough remains anchored across the Midwest. Several short wave impulses will ride through the flow around this feature, leading to modest cyclogenesis across the East Coast - conveniently overhead for us. The good news is the patterns is anything but boring as we head into the new month.

Thursday looks to be one of the quieter days in the near future as we remain dry-slotted between the mid-level trough to our west and the stalled frontal boundary to our east. Influencing our weather will be the weak ridging overhead. Highs look seasonable in the low 70s.

By Friday, the first in our short wave series passes through the main trough minimum and begins to ride up the Eastern Seaboard, strengthening a surface low over our region. Relatively weak upper level divergence looks to keep this low fairly weak, but another round of showers and heavy downpours is likely. Highs stay noticeably cooler in the low to mid 60s under widespread cloud cover.

A similar pattern to Thursday as we head into the weekend with a weak surface high developing across southern New England. Highs remain on the cooler side in the mid to upper 60s, about 5 degrees below average for early fall.

The forecast turns more questionable, and perhaps exciting, as we head into Monday. While model agreement remains less than ideal, both the GFS and EC are indicating some form of coastal low may develop over our region and head along the New England Coast through Tuesday. There will be two pieces of energy to watch as a robust shortwave ejects out of the mid-level trough over the Midwest and a surface low moves northward off the Carolina Coast. The EC carries in much stronger shortwave and associated surface low than the GFS. Depending on how these two feature phase, a significant coastal low may develop, though it remains too far in the future to hang our hats on anything just yet. If the coastal Carolina low moves northward fast enough and into the PVA of the shortwave, hefty cyclogenesis is likely to ensue Monday. The GFS wants to phase these features a little further offshore than the EC. Tended to favor the EC a bit and trended PoPs upward Monday and Tuesday given the robustness of the Midwest trough and energetic features we have seen thus far.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Ceilings have returned to mostly VFR, although some MVFR ceilings will continue for a couple of more hours for portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Winds will remain gusty out of the west 20-25 knots, before shifting to the southwest this afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. Southwest to south wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook .

Thursday . VFR with southwesterly winds turning westerly into the afternoon from 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Thursday night and Friday . MVFR conditions at times as showers move northward into the area. VFR conditions return by Friday afternoon as showers move off to the north and east. Northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Saturday and Sunday . VFR with northwesterly winds Saturday veering to the northeast on Sunday from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. A west to southwest wind around 15 to 20 knots is expected for today. Gusts around 25 knots are anticipated this morning. The wind should favor southwest around 15 knots for tonight.

Wave heights are forecast to subside slowly. They should fall below 5 feet on the coastal waters off Delaware late today. The 5 foot waves are expected to linger into tonight on the coastal waters off New Jersey.

The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 1:00 PM for Delaware Bay, until 6:00 PM for the waters off Delaware, and until 6:00 AM Thursday for the waters off New Jersey.

Outlook .

Thursday . Winds from the southwest from 10 to 15 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots. Seas may remain elevated from 3 to 5 feet into the early afternoon, thus the SCA may need to be extended into the morning.

Friday through Sunday . conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

Rip currents .

There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for today and Thursday along the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware.

A west to southwest wind 10 to 15 MPH is expected for today. Breaking waves should be around 3 to 4 feet with a medium period southeasterly swell.

A southwest wind around 10 MPH is anticipated for Thursday. Breaking waves should be around 2 feet with a medium period southeasterly swell.

This is our final surf zone forecast for the season. The product will resume in May 2021.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ454- 455. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ430- 431.

Synopsis . Davis Near Term . Iovino/Robertson Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Davis Aviation . Davis/Iovino/Robertson Marine . Davis/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi57 min 61°F 70°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 18 mi57 min 60°F 62°F
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 19 mi57 min 60°F 71°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi63 min 61°F 70°F
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 32 mi57 min 61°F
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi57 min 61°F 71°F
FSNM2 37 mi57 min 60°F
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi57 min 61°F 73°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 38 mi57 min 60°F
CPVM2 43 mi57 min 63°F 55°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi57 min 64°F 71°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD13 mi90 minWSW 87.00 miA Few Clouds57°F53°F88%1008.8 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE21 mi36 minW 12 G 2110.00 miFair61°F52°F72%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S8SW6SW6S9S7E6E5E5NW4N12
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1 day agoSW9SW4--5S6SW7SW8S7S7S5S5S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE4SE4S5S6
2 days agoE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW4CalmSW3Calm--CalmS6SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:22 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:50 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:13 PM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:04 PM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.51.10.90.91.21.72.22.73.13.232.62.11.61.211.11.41.82.32.72.82.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:16 AM EDT     -2.02 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:02 AM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     2.14 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:09 AM EDT     -0.09 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:49 PM EDT     -1.78 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:23 PM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     1.99 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:56 PM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2-2-1.7-1.4-0.31.522.11.91.40.5-1.2-1.7-1.8-1.6-1.4-0.81.11.821.81.3-0.3-1.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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