Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake City, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:30PM Thursday April 2, 2020 11:25 PM EDT (03:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:06PMMoonset 2:25AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1041 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...except flat near the mouth of the susquehanna.
Fri..NW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 1041 Pm Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will continue to retrograde off the new england coastline as high pressure gradually builds into our area from the west. As a result, gusty winds will continue through Friday before relaxing by Friday evening. Dry conditions continue on Saturday before a weak cold front moves through the region late Sunday. The frontal boundary will then stall to our south before retreating north as a warm front early next week. Small craft advisories are likely to be extended into Friday evening for portions of the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake City, MD
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location: 39.5, -75.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 030151 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 951 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. An ocean storm will continue to churn offshore of the mid-Atlantic through tomorrow. That storm will finally move out to sea by Saturday as high pressure builds in for the weekend. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night, with weak high pressure then building in for Monday. A large low pressure system centered over southern Canada could result in a cold front arriving mid week next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. 700 pm update: Main changes were to increase winds/gusts slightly this evening, as the peak gusts appear to be occurring now (which aligns well with forecast soundings). Also trended winds a little upward overnight, with the stronger guidance not suggesting much of a drop-off as the ocean cyclone edges closer to the region. Finally, adjusted the increasing cloudiness trend a little slower, as overall guidance is a bit too fast with its southwestward progression.

Previous discussion .

Our coastal storm continues to churn over the open waters roughly 300 miles southeast of Nantucket. The low will slowly retrograde westward as its trajectory loops in a counterclockwise direction through the overnight and into Friday morning. Central pressure has dropped to nearly 970 mb today, which has tightened the pressure gradient overhead with a 1024 mb high over Ontario. This has led to strong and gusty winds today reaching anywhere from 20 to even 40 mph out of the northwest. Winds will continue into the overnight, diminishing by somewhat with gusts staying below 30 mph. The good news is the low has reached peak intensity and should slowly fill as it moves back westward then eastward through its circular path.

Cloud cover will be on the increase as several embedded shortwave impulses pivot around the highly amplified synoptic trough over the Northeast. Some areas of light rain will begin to push southwestward as the low pushes westward after midnight, but will remain light in nature with total rainfall amounts of only a few hundredths of an inch. Lows will drop into the low 40s across the region.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Friday doesn't look nearly as nice as today as the Atlantic storm continues its counterclockwise trajectory closer to our coast. Several rounds of light rain and showers as a series of shortwaves/surface troughs rotate from north to south. Again, precip totals will remain on the lighter side with only a few hundredths of an inch possible. It will remain breezy but winds will remain lighter than today from the gusts from 20 to 30 mph, subsiding from the morning into the afternoon. Highs will reach in the low to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Overview: No significant concerns in the long term until we get to mid week next week when a large low pressure system could bring a strong cold front to our region. As mentioned by the previous shift, the blocking pattern that has been in place is expected to gradually break down through early next week. Consequently, we are expecting a progressive ridge to cross the eastern U.S. followed by a large low pressure system crossing southern Canada through the week.

Details:

Saturday and Sunday . The off shore low is finally expected to shift further off shore as a mid level ridge approaches. The result is a warming trend through the weekend, with highs on Saturday in the 50s. By Sunday we'll see highs in the 60s across most of the region

Sunday night and Monday . A very weak cold front is still expected to arrive Sunday night, but models have trended faster with the frontolysis - now should be occuring well before it reaches our region. This means that the front is expected to be even less significant both in terms of precipitation and temperatures. In fact, Monday should even be slightly warmer than Sunday.

Tuesday through Thursday . The pattern continues to become more progressive through this period. A large low pressure system is expected to cross southern Canada. An associated strong cold front could reach as far south as our region through this time.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Mainly VFR but with increasing cloudiness from northeast to southwest with time. CIGs may approach MVFR northeast of PHL toward daybreak. Strong northwest winds will diminish little overnight, with speeds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt common, and even a little higher than these values during the evening. High confidence.

Friday . CIGs may trend to MVFR with time during the day, especially at the Philly terminals, ACY, and MIV. Confidence is lower with this at RDG/ABE. A few showers may occur, but negligible impacts at the terminals are expected. North to northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Moderate confidence.

Friday night . Gradual improvement to VFR is possible, but MVFR CIGs may linger. North winds 10 to 15 kt gusting to 25 kt during the evening becoming more northeast with time and diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Saturday . VFR conditions are expected. Northeast winds of 5 to 10 kt becoming light and variable for the evening and overnight. High confidence.

Sunday-Sunday night . Mainly VFR. Localized MVFR ceilings possible overnight along with a slight chance of showers. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming westerly or even northwesterly late Sunday night. Moderate confidence.

Monday through Tuesday . Mainly VFR conditions expected. Light westerly or southwesterly winds becoming light and variable. Moderate confidence.

MARINE. 930 pm update: A brief surge of marginal gale gusts occurred on the New Jersey coast during the past hour. However, gusts have lowered after this surge, at least for now. Nevertheless, will be monitoring observations closely the next few hours, in case a short-fused gale warning will be required.

700 pm update: Have allowed the gale warning to expire for Lower Delaware Bay and the southern NJ/DE Atlantic coastal waters. Have issued a small craft advisory through Friday in its place for Lower Delaware Bay (matching Upper Delaware Bay) and through Saturday for the Atlantic waters (extending the advisory through this time for the northern/central NJ waters).

Despite the expiration of the gale warning, expecting a few gusts near or just above gale force early this evening and again later tonight as northwest flow channels over Delaware Bay. Confidence is not high enough with this yet, but another period of more consistent gales may occur after midnight should that channeling effect materialize. Will be watching obs and model trends closely.

On Friday, stiff north to northwest winds will continue with seas remaining quite elevated. A few showers may occur. Conditions should improve on Delaware Bay by the evening but will likely remain well above advisory criteria on the Atlantic waters through the overnight hours.

Outlook .

Saturday-Sunday night . A prolonged period of continued SCA conditions is expected on the Atlantic coastal waters. North- northwesterly winds could gust 25 to 30 kt on Friday, especially early. Beyond then, winds will decrease with gusts no greater than 20 kt through the remainder of this period, so SCA flags will be able to come down for Delaware Bay. However, seas on the ocean will be very slow to subside thanks to a large offshore storm slowly departing the area. Seas will run 5 to 9 ft through the period, slowly diminishing towards Sunday and Sunday night.

Monday and Tuesday . Conditions look to finally return to sub-SCA levels with seas 3 to 4 ft and light winds.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The ocean storm affecting our weather through Saturday will also act in concert with increasing astronomical tides via the approaching full moon to generate coastal flooding around the times of high tide on Friday and Saturday. It appears the Friday night high tide may be especially problematic, with widespread minor to locally moderate flooding possible. Models are trending higher with tidal levels on the New Jersey and Delaware coasts, with moderate flooding currently forecast for the southern New Jersey coast, lower Delaware Bay, and the Atlantic coast of Delaware. If the overnight model solutions continue this trend, a coastal flood watch will likely be required.

For the tidal Delaware River, at least one round of minor flooding is possible on Saturday, but confidence is a little lower owing to increased model variability and predominant northerly flow. For the eastern shores of Chesapeake Bay, confidence is also rather low. The north to northwest flow would suggests a reduced threat, but will need to watch lower portions of the bay closely to determine if sufficient water evacuation occurs between high tides to mitigate the threat of higher tidal levels in upper portions of the bay.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . CMS/Davis Short Term . Davis Long Term . Johnson Aviation . CMS/Johnson Marine . CMS/Johnson Tides/Coastal Flooding . CMS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 6 mi56 min NNW 8 G 9.9 53°F 52°F1008.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 18 mi56 min NNW 15 G 19 54°F 56°F1007.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 19 mi56 min 53°F 51°F1007.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 26 mi62 min NNW 12 G 15 55°F 52°F1009 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 32 mi56 min NNW 24 G 28 53°F 1007.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 34 mi56 min 53°F 51°F1006.9 hPa
FSNM2 37 mi68 min NW 22 G 28 57°F 1008.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 38 mi56 min N 9.9 G 16 57°F 48°F1008.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 38 mi56 min NW 19 G 23 56°F 1008.6 hPa
CPVM2 43 mi56 min 56°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi56 min 56°F 1008.5 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phillips Army Air Field / Aberdeen, MD13 mi88 minNW 59.00 miFair53°F29°F40%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPG

Wind History from APG (wind in knots)
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------NW5
1 day agoE7E6NE7E8NE10NE9NE8NE8NE7NE8NE9--N7N4N6N6N9NW4NW5NW7N6CalmNW3Calm
2 days agoN5N8N5N4N5N3N3CalmN5NE4CalmCalmE7NE5E5E7E7----E10E6--E8E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Town Point Wharf, Maryland
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Old Town Point Wharf
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:07 AM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:44 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:36 PM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.811.41.61.81.71.410.70.40.40.50.91.31.92.32.62.62.421.71.30.9

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:20 AM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:24 AM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:05 AM EDT     -2.12 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:37 AM EDT     0.07 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:14 PM EDT     2.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:21 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:55 PM EDT     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.41.61.50.9-1.1-1.7-2-2.1-2-1.6-10.71.31.821.91.50.7-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.