Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bel Air South, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Very dry air continues to push into the region as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures still on track for highs in the mid-upper 70s across the area. The RH values have been even a bit lower than expected after being bumped down earlier this morning, especially along the I-95 corridor. However, thanks to a lack of substantial winds, any fire weather threat is minimal today. Fires will be easy to start, but should have difficult spreading rapidly.

Low temperatures will be near average for mid-April tonight, dropping into the mid 40s to low 50s for most.

Mostly sunny skies return on Thursday as high pressure will be more directly overhead. Expect very similar conditions on Thursday as you see today, though perhaps a few degrees warmer as slight mid-level height rises are observed with an upper- ridge building overhead. A notable pattern for another very low RH day Thursday raises at least a slight cause for concern in terms of fire weather. However, even though there could be a few 10 to 15 mph gusts tomorrow, just don't think it will be frequent enough to cause significant issues. Sustained winds will generally be AOB 5 mph much of the day. Additionally, 10-hour fuel moisture remains in the 11 to 15 percent category, so this should also help. The fine fuels will likely be drier, so will have to watch anything that may get sparked in grass, leaves, etc. But overall, the threat appears low for rapid fire spread tomorrow at this time.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Strengthening low pressure moving into the Great Lakes, in response to a piece of upper level energy moving out of the Central Plains, will lift a warm front through the region late Thursday night into Friday. Overrunning processes will bring increased cloudcover to the region by daybreak on Friday, but rain chances appear to hold off until a bit later in the day.
Guidance continues to be rather dry when it comes to QPF amounts with this front-end precipitation, so wouldn't expect any significant rainfall amounts from this particular aspect of the system. Any substantial rain doesn't arrive until Saturday, and as you will read below, even that is trending down.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front pushing through the forecast area will bring showers and a possible thunderstorm to start off the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances peak in the morning and into the early afternoon, with precipitation chances decreasing from northwest to southeast late Saturday afternoon. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s to low 80s with those at higher elevations staying in the 50s to 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 30s to 40s with the metro areas staying in the 50s.

Conditions dry out Saturday night as surface high pressure builds overhead through Monday. In the wake of a cold front, high temperatures on Sunday will be in the 60s to low 70s with overnight lows in the 40s areawide. Temperatures gradually warm Monday with highs in the 70s for most.

As surface high pressure shifts offshore, temperatures continue to rise under return flow. High temperatures rise in the low to mid 80s for most on Tuesday with dry conditions expected that morning. An approaching warm front will bring a slight chance of precipitation to the Alleghenies with the rest of the forecast area remaining dry.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure building over the region will result in VFR conditions through at least Thursday night. Winds will be light out of the E/NE today, before turning out of the southeast on Thursday.

As a warm front approaches the region ahead of a strengthening surface low well to our west, overrunning moisture could result in some sub-VFR ceilings by late Thursday night into Friday.
Any restrictions associated with rain showers likely wait until late Friday.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely as a cold front moves through the forecast area Saturday morning through the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances decrease from northwest to southeast late Saturday afternoon with southerly winds ahead of the front shifting to northwesterly behind the frontal passage. VFR conditions are expected Sunday as northerly winds gust 15 to 20 knots in the morning.

MARINE
High pressure will continue to build into the region this afternoon through Thursday before pushing offshore on Thursday evening. Sub-SCA conditions are expected through this timeframe, with light easterly to northeasterly winds today, becoming more southeasterly by Thursday.

Winds then turn southerly on Thursday night into Friday as a warm front begins to lift through the region. As this front pushes through on Friday, showers and near-SCA wind gusts are both possible. SCAs may be needed by Friday afternoon.

SHowers and thunderstorms impact the waters on Saturday as a cold front moves across the forecast area. Small Craft Advisory are likely on Saturday. Winds shift from southerly ahead of the front to northwesterly behind the front Saturday evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue Sunday morning as winds shift to northerly. Winds diminish to sub SCA-criteria Sunday afternoon.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.