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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bel Air South, MD

June 25, 2024 2:10 AM EDT (06:10 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM
Moonrise 10:46 PM   Moonset 8:18 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 433 Pm Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Tuesday - .

Rest of this afternoon - N winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.

Tonight - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt - . Becoming nw 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Tue - NW winds 5 kt - .becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.

Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers with tstms likely.

Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.

Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 433 Pm Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will briefly return to the waters through Tuesday before a cold front crosses Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure will return from the north Friday into Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday night through Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bel Air South, MD
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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
970 FXUS61 KLWX 250052 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 852 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build back into the area through Tuesday bringing a brief reprieve to the excessive heat and humidity.
High pressure pushes offshore Wednesday as another cold front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. The front will cross the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure briefly returns from the north Friday before another series of fronts and increased heat this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
00Z KIAD sounding shows plenty of dry air at the surface with only 37 percent RH in the low levels and 23 percent RH at the mid levels. Cloud cover has decreased throughout the forecast area with clear skies expected tonight. No changes to the previous forecast.

An upper trough axis will pivot offshore through tonight, with high pressure building at the surface. Humidity has really fallen which will result in notably lower temperatures overnight tonight compared to the last couple of nights. Breezy conditions will subside this evening which will also aid in falling temperatures overnight. Lows are expected to range from the mid 50s to mid 60s, except around 70 in the major urban centers and right along major bodies of water.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will pivot over the area Tuesday, then move offshore by Tuesday night. Humidity will remain low but temperatures may end up a degree or two higher than Monday.

Warm air advection will cause an increase in clouds heading into Tuesday night, with perhaps a few showers or a thunderstorm approaching the Appalachians through the night.

A sharpening upper trough and associated strong surface cold front will approach from the Ohio Valley Wednesday, then cross the region Wednesday night. Return flow ahead of this system will result in a surge of heat and humidity. Cloud cover as a result of upstream convection draws into question just how hot it gets, with some questions surrounding the quality of low- level moisture return as well. This results in uncertainty regarding the level of instability, although the potential is rather high given the ambient airmass. In addition, deep layer flow and shear will increase to 30 to 40 knots by Wednesday evening. All of this combined with increased ascent lends to the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms. This threat will need to be fine-tuned in the coming days as finer scale details come into focus, but a considerable severe weather episode is possible if conditions come together.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Heat and humidity return for the weekend along with additional shower and thunderstorm chances as a series of fronts push through the area.

Calmer conditions are expected for the late week period as a cold front slowly exits south and east Thursday with high pressure building in briefly from the north Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms may linger along and east of the boundary (i.e east of the Blue Ridge) Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. The 12z GFS and ECWMF advertise a few spotty showers and thunderstorms mainly across central and eastern VA with high pressure building south from the Great Lakes region. As for temperatures Thursday, expect highs to drop back into the upper 80s and low 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Additional relief arrives Thursday night as dewpoints fall into the 50s under light north to northwest flow. Lows Thursday night will range from the 50s and low to mid 60s west of US-15 to upper 60s and low 70s in the metros.

High pressure continues to push eastward into the New England states Friday before pushing offshore Friday night into Saturday. This will allow for a light onshore flow component to converge against the Blue Ridge promoting a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm over the central/southern Blue Ridge (Shenandoah Valley/central VA Piedmont). Most locations will remain dry with temperatures once again in the mid to upper 80s and low 90s.
Overnight lows Friday night will fall back into the upper 60s and low 70s areawide with increasing moisture as the flow turns toward the south.

By the weekend, temperatures look to increase as a series of fronts push into the area. High pressure will continue off the New England coast Saturday with a warm front lifting into our region from the south. This front is in association with an area of low pressure moving across the northern Great Lakes into eastern Canada. With the warm front nearby, synoptic/ensemble guidance illustrates a few showers and thunderstorms mainly tied to areas along and west of the Blue Ridge. However, the highest probabilities of thunderstorms appears to be on Sunday as the warm front kicks north and the incumbent cold front follows from the Ohio River Valley. Some of these thunderstorms could be on the strong side given the recent Day 6/7 probabilities from CSU machine learning. SPC also makes a mention in their Day 4-8 discussion although confidence in how strong the storms will become and placement remains uncertain.
Any rain that we do see will be beneficial at this point given the flash drought conditions. Highs this weekend will get back into the low to mid 90s with heat indices running close to or just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions are forecast through Wednesday morning. Gusty NW winds will persist until around 00Z before diminishing, then become SW Tuesday into Wednesday. A strong cold front will likely touch off some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday especially late into the day and into the night.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms may lead to brief restrictions on Thursday morning and early Thursday afternoon at terminals along and east of the corridor and south of KCHO. Additional spotty showers and thunderstorms may lead to brief restrictions at terminals along and south of a line from KSHD to KCHO/KRIC. By Saturday, will watch a warm front lifting into the region. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible with this boundary Saturday afternoon mainly at terminals west of the corridor. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday as a cold front sweeps into the region.

MARINE
Gusty NW winds will continue into tonight before diminishing late. High pressure moves overhead tonight, then offshore Tuesday. Southerly channeling is likely Tuesday night, with gusty SW flow ahead of a strong cold front Wednesday. This front will likely deliver strong thunderstorms.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected on both Thursday and Friday with high pressure to the north of the region. WInds will be out of the north and northwest Thursday before shifting to the east and southeast Friday. Southerly flow returns with a warm front Saturday into Sunday leading to the potential for SCA channeling over the middle and lower bay. A cold front crosses the waters Sunday into Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies decrease through Tuesday with NW flow. A return of southwest winds late Tuesday into Wednesday will bring another increase in water levels, although no flooding is forecast at this time.

CLIMATE
Very hot temperatures are expected on Wednesday. Several records could be in jeopardy. Below is a list of record high temperatures for June 26th, the year the record was set, and the current forecast high temperatures for that day. A plus sign after the date signifies the record was set multiple times, with the most recent year indicated below. RERs are only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other sites are shown for reference.

Wednesday Jun 26th Washington-National (DCA) 101F (1952) 98F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 95F (1998) 97F Baltimore (BWI) 99F (1954+) 98F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1943) 93F Charlottesville (CHO) 99F (1998) 97F Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1952) 94F Hagerstown (HGR) 98F (1954+) 93F

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>534- 537>541-543.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 22 mi53 minNNW 12G13 78°F 82°F29.92
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 23 mi53 minNNW 4.1G8 77°F 81°F
CBCM2 24 mi53 minNW 7G8 78°F 81°F29.9158°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 24 mi53 minNW 12G12 78°F 29.92
HWPM2 25 mi53 minWNW 8G13
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 27 mi53 minWSW 1.9G1.9 68°F 83°F29.91
CPVM2 37 mi53 min 76°F 58°F
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 38 mi53 minWNW 7G9.9 73°F 29.90
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 39 mi53 minW 5.1G7 74°F 84°F29.91
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 39 mi53 min 72°F 83°F29.88
44063 - Annapolis 40 mi35 minNW 9.7G9.7 74°F 78°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 44 mi71 minW 8.9G9.9 76°F 29.95


Wind History for Tolchester Beach, MD
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: APG
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Tide / Current for Pond Point, Susquehanna River, Maryland
   
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Pond Point
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Mon -- 03:59 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:39 AM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:13 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:13 PM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Pond Point, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
1.3
1
am
1
2
am
0.8
3
am
0.6
4
am
0.5
5
am
0.6
6
am
0.9
7
am
1.3
8
am
1.8
9
am
2.2
10
am
2.5
11
am
2.5
12
pm
2.4
1
pm
2.1
2
pm
1.7
3
pm
1.3
4
pm
0.9
5
pm
0.7
6
pm
0.5
7
pm
0.6
8
pm
0.8
9
pm
1.1
10
pm
1.4
11
pm
1.6


Tide / Current for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Mon -- 12:50 AM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:07 PM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:29 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
2
1
am
2.2
2
am
2
3
am
1.8
4
am
1.5
5
am
1.1
6
am
0.9
7
am
0.8
8
am
0.9
9
am
1.3
10
am
2
11
am
2.9
12
pm
3.5
1
pm
3.8
2
pm
3.7
3
pm
3.4
4
pm
2.9
5
pm
2.4
6
pm
1.9
7
pm
1.4
8
pm
1
9
pm
0.8
10
pm
0.9
11
pm
1.2


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