Saturday, February27, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Bear, DE

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:54PM Saturday February 27, 2021 5:18 AM EST (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:24PMMoonset 7:11AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 430 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Rest of the overnight..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Sun night..N winds 5 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
ANZ500 430 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure over southeastern virginia will move out to sea today. Another wave of low pressure will follow taking a bit further north track across the region Sunday. High pressure will build from the northeast toward the middle atlantic Monday into Tuesday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Sunday. Gale conditions are possible late Monday into early Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bear, DE
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 39.56, -75.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KPHI 270914 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 414 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure approaching from the southwest is forecast to pass through our region today, followed by a stronger low from the west on Sunday. A cold front is expected from the northwest early on Monday. A secondary cold front is anticipated on Monday night with high pressure arriving in its wake for Tuesday. An area of low pressure may pass off the Middle Atlantic coast on Wednesday. High pressure should then influence our weather on Thursday, with a cold front possible on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Its been a mixed bag this evening of rain and snow as a mid level shortwave continues to track through the region. The abundant dry air initially has caused wet bulb cooling for the Lehigh Valley and Poconos leading to a period of light to moderate snow. Accumulations should be on the lower side however as wet bulb temps have been hovering around 32 or greater except for Carbon and Monroe counties. Based on the CIRA advected PW plots, dry air is starting to entrain in to the 700-500mb layer which should start to lead to a loss of cloud ice. This should have the effect for the Poconos to cause the snow to turn over to a brief period of freezing rain before day break.

Warm air advection should continue through the morning providing just enough lift to see rain continue through mid morning before the progressive system ends up pushing east. The combination of cold rain in the morning and low clouds will likely end up feeling like a rather dreary morning across the region. With southerly flow throughout the afternoon and 850mb temps warming to the +5 to +7 across eastern PA and NJ with the chance of +10 across DelMarVa, anticipate highs warming into the mid to upper 50s. This should lead to a somewhat pleasant afternoon at least from the I-95 corridor south and east as precip exists the region and we dry out.

Heading into this evening, dry air is expected to return as the flow aloft quickly returns to west to northwesterly. This should lead to some beaks in the cloud cover early in the evening before clouds start to thicken again ahead of the next low pressure system. Lows should remain on the mild side as the warm air should still be in place to start the evening. Expect lows in the mid 30s across the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and NW New Jersey with mid to even upper 40s south and east of the I-95 corridor.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Another weather system will affect the region on Sunday, bringing additional rainfall. A series of mid-level impulses will race through the southwest flow aloft while strong ridging with significant positive height anomalies remains overhead. A weak surface wave will develop over the Ohio Valley early on Sunday and track through our region late in the day as it moves along a weak surface boundary just south of us. At the same time, strengthening low pressure will track through the western Great Lakes, trailing a cold front to its south.

Following the period of dry weather Saturday afternoon and night, rain will begin to approach from the west-southwest on Sunday morning as the surface wave moves closer to the region. This should bring several hours of steady, light to moderate rainfall on Sunday, most widespread from about mid morning to mid afternoon. Some drying is possible from west to east late in the day. Not overly optimistic for a lengthy dry period as additional mid-level impulses combined with the lingering surface boundary could yield additional rain showers later in the day and into the night. With time, the focus for additional rainfall should sink southward as the cold front associated with the Great Lakes low begins to approach. That front will eventually kick the unsettled weather offshore, but this process likely won't be complete until Monday. While the air mass as a whole over the East is anomalously mild on Sunday thanks to the strong ridging, there will also be a rather strong cold air damming regime in place with high pressure over southern Canada. Precipitation Sunday will fall as mostly or all rain, but can't rule out a bit of mix at the onset in the Poconos. High temperatures will also vary greatly from north to south on Sunday, from the upper 30s in the Poconos to near 60 in southern Delaware.

See the hydrology section below for more information on the hydrologic aspect of this event and implications for potential flooding on area rivers.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Overview .

Up and down weather expected next week as we begin meteorological spring. Monday will serve as a transition day as a cold front pushes offshore early in the day, followed by a reinforcing Arctic front in the evening. This will lead to a period of windy and much colder conditions for Monday night and Tuesday. The cold shot quickly gives way to milder air for mid to late next week as ridging rebuilds over the East after the brief Arctic intrusion. Mainly dry weather looks to dominate the week, as model guidance has trended away from the idea of a midweek coastal system. So it should be a quiet stretch of weather for the mid and late week period, with some indications of storminess towards next weekend.

Dailies .

Monday-Monday night . By Monday morning, any lingering rainfall should be most focused in southern and eastern areas as a cold front pushes east. The timing of this front has slowed down just a little, which may keep rain showers in the picture a little longer especially towards the coast. So raised PoPs a bit for Monday morning, but still expecting a trend towards dry weather through the day. As some sunshine develops, temperatures will rise close to if not above normal values as the air mass behind the front is not especially cold and we will be starting from warm overnight lows Sunday night. A steady northwest breeze also develops behind the front. By Monday evening and overnight, a strong shortwave with Arctic origins will race southeastward out of Canada, sending a reinforcing Arctic front through the region towards mid to late evening. A rain or snow shower or squall will be possible along the front, mainly over our northern zones and in areas farther north of us. Winds will roar as the front races through. Have continued to trend the wind forecast higher, with gusts around 35 to 40 mph in most areas Monday night, a little higher at the coast and in the Poconos. Gusts may end up even a little higher, and may eventually need to give consideration to Wind Advisories in some areas for this period.

Behind the front, a frigid air mass for early March moves in. 850mb temperatures plunge towards -15 to -20C, and the trend in that projection has been downward. This will place us close to or below observed minimums for the season per SPC sounding climatology. The strong winds Monday night will keep the air temperatures from falling too far below normal values, but we still fall well into the 20s with wind chills in the single digits and teens. All in all, it will feel very wintry across the region on Monday night.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . Dry but cold weather expected. The air mass begins to moderate by later Tuesday as troughing departs, but it will not avert a considerably colder than normal day. It now appears unlikely most if any of the region will reach 40F on Tuesday, with highs instead topping out mainly in the mid to upper 30s. Winds will start to relent on Tuesday, but it remains breezy with wind chills in the 20s throughout the day. Cold weather continues Tuesday night as radiational cooling conditions improve, though the wind chill will stop being much of a factor. Lows again mainly in the 20s.

Wednesday-Friday . As mentioned, moderating temperatures are expected as shortwave troughing and the associated Arctic intrusion departs and ridging redevelops in the East. We're also seeing better consensus for dry conditions during this period. The GFS solution of dry weather and high pressure, which had largely been an outlier for several days, is now the preferred outcome among most of the guidance. It appears as though any area of low pressure should stay south of the region, though the EC still brings a low just far enough north for a period of rain Wednesday, mainly in the southern zones. But have trended the forecast more towards drier outcomes as it seems other guidance is playing catch-up to the GFS. From there, mainly dry weather should hold through Friday, with a cold frontal passage possible on Thursday which may drop temperatures a bit to end the week, though not nearly as much as the Monday night cold front. There are fairly strong indications in the guidance for a storm system to develop along the East Coast towards next weekend, but at this stage it's much too early to have any confidence in that forecast.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Overnight . Generally MVFR becoming IFR/LIFR as a wintry mix affects the northern and western terminal with rain across the southern and eastern terminals. Low-level wind shear included after 06z as a 35-45 knot southerly low-level jet near 2000 feet arrives. Low confidence on specific timing of low ceilings and visibility restrictions.

Today . MVFR/IFR conditions in rain through the morning with improvements in vsby expected during the afternoon however lower ceilings will take longer to erode. Southeast winds around 10 knots becoming south to southwest or west in the afternoon. Low-level wind shear in the morning as a 35-45 knot southerly low-level jet near 2000 feet moves through. Low confidence on exact timing or specific flight conditions.

Tonight . Generally becoming VFR as clouds start to thin and lift. MVFR ceilings may start to filter in late ahead of the next low pressure system that will affect the region on Sunday. Medium confidence.

Outlook .

Sunday-Sunday night . Conditions lowering to MVFR then IFR from southwest to northeast on Sunday morning as rain overspreads the region. Mainly IFR for most of the day and night with areas of rain and low clouds. Some improvement to MVFR is possible late in the night, especially near RDG and ABE. East or southeast wind 5 to 10 kt during the day Sunday becoming light and variable then light westerly overnight. Moderate confidence.

Monday . Improvement to MVFR then VFR expected through the morning hours as rain departs offshore. West-northwest wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Moderate to high confidence.

Monday night . VFR. Northwest winds increase to around 20 kt with gusts of 30 to 35 kt. A period of 40 to 45 kt gusts is possible. Moderate to high confidence.

Tuesday-Tuesday night . VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt during the day becoming light and variable overnight. High confidence.

Wednesday-Wednesday night . Mainly VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt becoming light northwesterly overnight. Low to moderate confidence.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for today. Onshore winds will peak this morning as a storm system quickly moves through. As the system starts to depart during this afternoon, the winds will turn to more southerly and eventually westerly and diminish. The main wind surge from the southeast along with building seas looks to be confined to the Atlantic coastal waters.

Outlook .

Sunday-Sunday night . On the Atlantic coastal waters, wave heights remain around 4 to 5 ft, so SCA headlines may continue to be needed. On Delaware Bay, sub-SCA conditions are expected. Southeast wind 10 to 15 kt during the day becoming southwest then west at 10 to 15 kt overnight. Periods of rain.

Monday . Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected. Seas drop to around 3 to 4 ft. West-northwest winds will likely gust to 20 kt or a bit higher in the afternoon. Rain possible, mainly in the morning.

Monday night . Northwest winds increase sharply. Gale force gusts of 35 to 40 kt develop. A couple hours of gusts to near storm force are possible. Seas building to 4 to 6 ft.

Tuesday-Wednesday . Northwest winds gradually decrease through the day Tuesday, falling to SCA levels by afternoon and potentially sub- SCA by evening. Seas 4 to 6 ft, gradually decreasing through the day. Marine headlines are unlikely Tuesday night and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. We continue to monitor the potential for flooding on some area rivers due to the combination of rain and snow melt. Total rainfall for the period of Sunday and Sunday night looks mostly in the range of 0.50 to 1.00 inches, heaviest in the southern two thirds of the area where rainfall amounts a little over an inch are possible. This has changed very little in recent days. Around 1.50 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE) remains over much of northern New Jersey. Much of this snow will melt over the weekend, which combined with the rainfall will lead to rises on area rivers. At this stage, minor flooding is being forecast for both the Millstone River at Blackwells Mills and the Passaic River at Pine Brook. Confidence in flooding is highest at the former of those points, where there is also a chance for moderate flooding to occur. The Raritan River at Bound Brook may also approach flood stage.

This is expected to be purely a river flooding issue due to a combination of rain and snow melt, not flooding or flash flooding due to heavy rainfall. Those who would potentially be impacted by minor flooding along the Millstone, Passaic, and Raritan Rivers in and around the areas mentioned above should continue to monitor river forecasts over the weekend.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ054- 055. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Deal Near Term . Deal Short Term . O'Brien Long Term . O'Brien Aviation . Deal/O'Brien Marine . Iovino/Deal/O'Brien Hydrology . O'Brien


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 5 mi48 min 36°F 38°F1024 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 5 mi48 min NE 6 G 8.9 36°F 1024.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 8 mi48 min E 4.1 G 6 36°F 39°F1024.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 22 mi48 min 38°F 38°F1024.6 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 23 mi48 min ENE 8 G 8.9 39°F 37°F1024.4 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 38 mi48 min 37°F 37°F1024.9 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 39 mi48 min NNE 2.9 G 7 37°F 41°F1023.6 hPa
BDSP1 43 mi48 min 36°F 41°F1025.1 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 49 mi48 min E 14 G 19 1023.9 hPa

Wind History for Delaware City, DE
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last
24hr
NW5
N5
N5
N2
S2
SE4
SE2
E4
S7
G11
SE7
G10
S7
G13
S7
G12
S6
G9
S6
G9
S7
G10
S5
G11
S8
G11
SE8
SE6
E9
NE6
G10
NE5
E7
NE6
1 day
ago
NW8
G11
NW12
G16
NW11
G17
NW10
G15
NW11
G17
NW9
G15
NW10
G18
NW8
G15
NW9
NW10
G13
NW5
G10
NW7
G11
NW6
W2
SW2
S2
W1
W4
W4
W2
SE1
W3
N1
NW3
2 days
ago
SW3
--
SE3
SW3
G7
E3
S6
SE8
G12
S7
G15
SE10
G13
SE5
G10
S9
G12
S5
G14
S4
SE5
SE3
SE1
--
NW4
W4
G10
W5
G9
NW9
G13
NW11
G16
NW13
G21
NW14
G20

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE9 mi27 minNE 104.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist37°F34°F89%1024.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILG

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last 24hrNW5N4CalmNE5N733S6S6SE6S12S12S12S9S8SE6S15SE6SE3E6NE7NE7NE10NE10
1 day agoNW16NW15NW10NW16
G22
NW14
G21
NW11
G19
N12
G20
NW9NW13NW9NW11NW10NW7NW3CalmCalmCalmW3W5W3W5NW3W3NW6
2 days agoS5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE7S9S12S13S12S11S14
G20
S7S9S7SE4CalmW7SW9W7W13NW10NW20
G25
NW21
G27

Tide / Current Tables for St. Georges, Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Delaware
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
St. Georges
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 05:20 AM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:58 AM EST     4.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:58 PM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:24 PM EST     4.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
3.82.81.80.90.2-0.3-0.10.92.43.74.54.84.43.62.51.50.70-0.30.21.52.83.94.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:32 AM EST     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 03:20 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     2.04 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:23 AM EST     -0.10 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:48 PM EST     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:22 PM EST     0.04 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:31 PM EST     2.20 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:28 PM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
-1.7-1.7-1.3-0.70.91.51.921.81-1.2-1.8-2.2-2.2-2-1.6-0.81.11.82.12.21.81-1

Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Cookie Policy:
This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. Google supplies the ads on this site. Because I do not track who you are, I cannot customize how these ads are served. They may be personalized to improve the ad experience. If you do not want personalized ads, please adjust the settings on the Google site HERE. NOTE: The best I can determine, this site is not subject to CCPA but I am doing my best to comply anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.