Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Accident, MD
December 2, 2023 7:14 PM EST (00:14 UTC)
Sunrise 7:20AM Sunset 4:57PM Moonrise 9:48PM Moonset 11:55AM
Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 022056 AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 356 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
SYNOPSIS
An active and progressive weather pattern will bring periodic precipitation chance over the next few days. A mild weekend will be replaced by colder temperatures next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Dry conditions will continue through much of today with weak ridging in response to a digging central CONUS trough. Generally overcast conditions continue, though pockets of sunshine are breaking through this afternoon. Continued warm air advection and minor height rises have promoted warm temperatures this afternoon, with many locations near 60F. This is near/just above the NBM 90th percentile. Continued to nudge Sunday's high temperatures to NBM 90th as well.
Another weak surface low will lift up the spine of the Appalachians tonight. This will return rain chances to the area overnight from the south. Highest PoPs will remain generally south and east of Pittsburgh. Cloud cover, moist conditions, and continued warm air advection will keep overnight lows about 10 degrees above average. This is similar to lows seen this morning.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
A second, deeper low will develop over the Midwest tonight and rapidly cross into New England by Monday morning, phasing with the weaker low over us Sunday morning. A deeper shortwave trough will provide better upper support for this system, but best forcing will remain north of our area. Therefore, highest PoPs and more widespread rain will likely remain north of Pittsburgh.
QPF values will remain generally light: highest of around 0.5-0.6 inches across the Laurel Highlands, 0.25-0.4 farther west, and less than 0.25 from ZZV to PHD to FKL.
Latest CAM runs do hint at the possibility for low-topped convection Sunday afternoon with meager instability and deep- layer shear owing to ~180kt jet streak. However, the low-level will remain generally unfavorable to more than a few rumbles of thunder, gusty showers, and perhaps an isolated occurrence of small hail with stronger, more organized updrafts.
Warm air advection will continue on Sunday, keeping daytime highs well above normal.
A deeper trough will cross the region on Monday, though deeper moisture will stay south of the area. Scattered light rain showers are expected during the afternoon, with some snow possibly mixing in for the higher elevations and north of I-80 with cold advection. However, temperatures will remain warm enough to preclude any snow accumulation. Continued to nudge Monday high temperatures towards NBM 10th given cold advection and cloud/precip.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Broad eastern CONUS troughing is expected through mid-week before ridging once again builds Friday into the weekend. A series of shortwave troughs traversing the flow will keep periodic rain and (light) snow chances in the forecast for much of the week.
Ensembles continue to show that temperature will trend near to just below normal for most of the week, trending back upwards by the weekend with ridging. Best snow chance is expected Wednesday/Thursday with a more vigorous shortwave and stronger push of cold air. However, probabilities of meaningful snow accumulations have continues to decrease.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings are in place this afternoon in the warm sector of a weak low pressure system over Ohio. Ongoing warm advection will likely keep this status quo through the afternoon into the early evening, perhaps with marginal improvement to low-end VFR at still-restricted terminals if some mixing can become established. Southwest wind will continue, with occasional gusts to 15 to 20 knots.
A renewed surge of moisture arrives tonight from the south with an inverted surface trough. Rain chances begin to build after 02Z, best south of a DUJ-AGC-HLG line. Flight conditions will also deteriorate through MVFR to IFR especially in this same area, with the NBM showing 50-70 percent chances of ceilings under 1000 feet late tonight. Wind will become light and variable under the weak pressure gradient of the inverted trough.
OUTLOOK
Periodic restrictions will continue through Wednesday as a series of low pressure systems cross the Upper Ohio Valley region.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 356 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023
SYNOPSIS
An active and progressive weather pattern will bring periodic precipitation chance over the next few days. A mild weekend will be replaced by colder temperatures next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Dry conditions will continue through much of today with weak ridging in response to a digging central CONUS trough. Generally overcast conditions continue, though pockets of sunshine are breaking through this afternoon. Continued warm air advection and minor height rises have promoted warm temperatures this afternoon, with many locations near 60F. This is near/just above the NBM 90th percentile. Continued to nudge Sunday's high temperatures to NBM 90th as well.
Another weak surface low will lift up the spine of the Appalachians tonight. This will return rain chances to the area overnight from the south. Highest PoPs will remain generally south and east of Pittsburgh. Cloud cover, moist conditions, and continued warm air advection will keep overnight lows about 10 degrees above average. This is similar to lows seen this morning.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
A second, deeper low will develop over the Midwest tonight and rapidly cross into New England by Monday morning, phasing with the weaker low over us Sunday morning. A deeper shortwave trough will provide better upper support for this system, but best forcing will remain north of our area. Therefore, highest PoPs and more widespread rain will likely remain north of Pittsburgh.
QPF values will remain generally light: highest of around 0.5-0.6 inches across the Laurel Highlands, 0.25-0.4 farther west, and less than 0.25 from ZZV to PHD to FKL.
Latest CAM runs do hint at the possibility for low-topped convection Sunday afternoon with meager instability and deep- layer shear owing to ~180kt jet streak. However, the low-level will remain generally unfavorable to more than a few rumbles of thunder, gusty showers, and perhaps an isolated occurrence of small hail with stronger, more organized updrafts.
Warm air advection will continue on Sunday, keeping daytime highs well above normal.
A deeper trough will cross the region on Monday, though deeper moisture will stay south of the area. Scattered light rain showers are expected during the afternoon, with some snow possibly mixing in for the higher elevations and north of I-80 with cold advection. However, temperatures will remain warm enough to preclude any snow accumulation. Continued to nudge Monday high temperatures towards NBM 10th given cold advection and cloud/precip.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Broad eastern CONUS troughing is expected through mid-week before ridging once again builds Friday into the weekend. A series of shortwave troughs traversing the flow will keep periodic rain and (light) snow chances in the forecast for much of the week.
Ensembles continue to show that temperature will trend near to just below normal for most of the week, trending back upwards by the weekend with ridging. Best snow chance is expected Wednesday/Thursday with a more vigorous shortwave and stronger push of cold air. However, probabilities of meaningful snow accumulations have continues to decrease.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings are in place this afternoon in the warm sector of a weak low pressure system over Ohio. Ongoing warm advection will likely keep this status quo through the afternoon into the early evening, perhaps with marginal improvement to low-end VFR at still-restricted terminals if some mixing can become established. Southwest wind will continue, with occasional gusts to 15 to 20 knots.
A renewed surge of moisture arrives tonight from the south with an inverted surface trough. Rain chances begin to build after 02Z, best south of a DUJ-AGC-HLG line. Flight conditions will also deteriorate through MVFR to IFR especially in this same area, with the NBM showing 50-70 percent chances of ceilings under 1000 feet late tonight. Wind will become light and variable under the weak pressure gradient of the inverted trough.
OUTLOOK
Periodic restrictions will continue through Wednesday as a series of low pressure systems cross the Upper Ohio Valley region.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
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