Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Amanda, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Short wave in the central Plains will make its way eastward and be approaching the forecast area by the end of the night. Associated surface low will move into western counties by daybreak. This will bring rain and showers to at least locations along and west of I-75 late tonight. Until then it will be mainly dry, although cannot rule out a few light showers out of a mid level cloud deck northwest of I-71 during the early part of the night. Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
Short wave and low pressure will quickly move across the area during the morning. This will take the more widespread precipitation with it. Cold front trailing the low to the southwest will then sweep across the area. There may be some additional showers with the frontal passage. A very modest diurnal rise is possible ahead of the front with temperatures falling after frontal passage. Northwest winds will become gusty. There could be some spotty showers in the cold air advection in the afternoon with a somewhat better potential for some light scattered showers into the night. Precipitation type will change from rain to snow from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening. While precipitation amounts will be quite light, there will be some very minor snow accumulations (1/4 inch or less). Temperatures will fall into the 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Closed mid level low dropping into the base of a long wave trough will move from Indiana into West Virginia on Monday. This will be accompanied by a well defined low level trough which will cross the area. There will be an enhanced axis of snow showers along this trough. This will result in a period of reduced visibility and some light accumulations. Occurring during the daytime period and still relatively warm pavement temperatures, expect little if any accumulation on roadways, and any that does occur should melt once snow tapers off. But some light accumulation can be expected on grassy and elevated surfaces. The snowfall forecast will not be representative of what ends up as accumulation depth because of melting with this first event of the season. Probabilities of minor impacts range from 10 to 30 percent.

The snow showers may still be in the southeast part of the area at the end of the day before finally moving southeast Monday evening.
This may pose a bit better chance of some slick spots on roads. In the wake of the trough, there may still be some snow showers, particularly from west central Ohio into parts of central Ohio as low level flow will have backed to west northwest, so the trajectory off of Lake Michigan will favor activity in the far northern part of the forecast area. This will cut off by Tuesday morning as the flow backs further and ridging starts to work in from the west.

Mid level flow will be northwesterly until late in the week when a long wave ridge translates eastward across the country. At the surface, the tail end of a front extending from a system moving across eastern Canada may brush by the region on Wednesday. Forecast will remain dry with this as precipitation is expected to stay north. Another front will sag south on Saturday, but at this point looks dry as well.

Much below normal temperatures at the beginning of the period will gradually moderate into midweek. A slight cool down will occur on Thursday in the wake of the cold front with another warming trend back above normal by the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Light and variable winds with VFR conditions to start the period will deteriorate during the overnight hours into Sunday.

Rain showers overspread the TAF sites from west to east with MVFR reductions in VSBY and CIGs between midnight and 6AM local. There is some weak elevated instability, so cannot rule out some thunder, particularly at KCVG and KLUK, however, confidence in thunder is low, so have kept it out of the TAFs for now.

After sunrise on Sunday, IFR CIGs move into the region. Off and on rain showers are expected through much of the day, eventually transitioning to snow showers late in the afternoon. Right now, coverage does not appear to be widespread, so have kept either a PROB30 or a -SHSN.

Winds tonight will initially be light and variable, eventually transitioning to easterly around 5 knots at precip onset. After sunrise, winds are expected to back to out of the north, then ultimately northwest and increase in intensity. Have afternoon winds around 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible.

OUTLOOK.. MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist into Monday with MVFR to IFR visibilities on Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.