Amanda, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Amanda, OH

June 17, 2024 1:00 PM EDT (17:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 9:02 PM
Moonrise 3:56 PM   Moonset 1:52 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 171516 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1116 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid air mass settles into the Ohio Valley. While heat is the primary concern, a few storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening. Limited chances for rain exist on Tuesday, with drier conditions favored the remainder of the week. A subtle drop in humidity expected the latter half of the work week, but hot conditions will persist.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
There is reasonable confidence today that a majority of our counties will reach or exceed 100 degree heat indicies, which is standard criteria for a Heat Advisory. These values could be met as early as 1-2PM.

While thunderstorm potential remains high, it is expected that coverage would be scattered over the CWA Initiation would be triggered by temperatures in the 90-92 range and occur where h5 s/w and vorticity maxima occur. Placement dependent on h5 conditions is sketchy given the high variability from one model to another. It appears models are bullish on the potential from Dayton northward and westward within the CWA
Previous discussion:

As for storm potential, there are plenty of CAMs that still want to initiate convection later this afternoon, with coverage increasing into the early evening. No large scale forcing or frontal boundary will help with timing and tracking storm activity... this is more of your typical single cell (popcorn)
thunderstorms that we observe during the summertime. Shear profiles will be quite unfavorable for any long-lived or multi- cell thunderstorm development. Thermodynamics on the other hand are quite alarming, with SBCAPE values near or exceeding 2000 J/kg, DCAPE values near or exceeding 1000 J/kg, along with steep 0-3km lapse rates. Any storms that do initialize could produce strong downbursts, with perhaps some hail if the storms can grow tall enough before collapsing.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Storm coverage expected to wane through the late evening and early overnight hours with the loss of diurnal heating. A slight uptick in overnight lows will occur Monday night as everyone in our fa is expected to observe low temps in the low to mid 70s.

Heat Advisory continues through the period on Tuesday as another hot and muggy day will be in store. Heat indicies are once again expected to peak near or just over 100 degrees. The area of high pressure continues to expand westward. As this does, precip chances will lower across our counties. However, still cannot rule out a stray shower or storm developing on Tuesday - mainly along/NW of I-71.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Upper ridge will become more expansive and reach its maximum strength and extent in the middle of the week. It will then very slowly start shifting south and become a little less intense later in the week. The pattern will then change over the weekend as a trough emerges out of the Canadian Rockies and strengthens as it heads into the Great Lakes squelching the ridge entirely.

Heat will build with highs reaching the mid 90s by Thursday and Friday. However, relatively drier low level air will get into the region on southeasterly flow allowing dew points to not be as high when temperatures are a few degrees warmer than previous days. This results in little change in maximum heat indices from day to day, generally peaking between 95 and 100 Wednesday through Saturday.
Although this falls short of the criteria of 100 for a heat advisory, this is a longer duration event with cumulative effects that could be hazardous to the public. Thus the time period previously covered by the excessive heat watch is now a heat advisory. There is the potential that at some point down the line the advisory will have to be extended into Saturday.

A cold front will be approaching the area on Sunday and this will bring the net appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mid and lower levels will continue to saturate and provide a mix of mid and low level clouds that will move in from the south.
Winds generally remain below 10 kts out of the south-southwest through the taf period.

Main thing to keep an eye on is storm potential. While no large scale forcing is in place, there is a chance for pop-up showers/storms today, mainly in the afternoon/evening period.
The environment would be conducive to producing downbursts with any of these storms today. Given uncertainty in coverage/timing of isolated storms, just have a VCTS mention for now.

Precip chances will diminish early tonight. KLUK will have the potential for some vsby reductions due to BR.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KLHQ FAIRFIELD COUNTY,OH 11 sm67 minSW 0810 smClear88°F73°F62%30.12
KLCK RICKENBACKER INTL,OH 20 sm65 minWSW 0510 smClear91°F72°F53%30.10
KRZT ROSS COUNTY,OH 22 sm25 minSSW 0610 smPartly Cloudy90°F68°F49%30.12
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Wilmington, OH,




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