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FXUS61 KILN 100005 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 705 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will sweep across the area tonight. Cold northwest flow will follow until high pressure builds in on Monday. Dry weather will ensue through the week with moderating temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Cold front has moved into the northwest part of the forecast area. This will continue eastward and clear the region shortly after midnight. Showers will occur along and ahead of the front.
Instability is rather minimal, but there is still a chance that some could advect north into the area. So there will be a chance of thunderstorms, mainly across southern counties.

In the wake of the front, there could be some clearing, particularly west, but that should be short-lived as an extensive cloud deck will be moving back into the area.

Most places will have lows in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
West northwest flow will keep skies mainly cloudy through the period. A weak secondary short wave could be sufficient to product some light precipitation in the more concentrated low-level moisture stream coming off of Lake Michigan. But would expect anything to be of little consequence.

There will be little if any recovery in temperatures during the day from morning lows. Lows Sunday night will be in the 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Quiet weather is expected across the Ohio Valley Monday through Friday thanks to a couple areas of high pressure moving across the region. The first area of high pressure builds in from the southwest for the first half of the work week. Westerly flow keeps temperatures in the upper 30s on Monday before southwesterly flow brings in warmer air for Tuesday.

A weak cold front pushes through the area Tuesday night leading to some increased clouds cover ahead of the second area of high pressure. This second surface high builds in from the north on Wednesday before slowly drifting east through Friday. Weak southerly flow around the high moderates temperatures as the week progresses while the high drifts east.

The next chance for precipitation arrives this weekend when a surface low may pass to the east. Most ensemble members have a coastal low rather than a low over the Appalachians which suggests moisture and forcing could remain limited over the Ohio Valley. With higher probabilities in the ensembles and climatology for a coastal low, precipitation chances remain low over the Ohio Valley at this time.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Cold front currently along the I-71 corridor will continue to push east across the rest of our area through the evening hours.
Right along the front, there is an axis of heavier rain showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm that will affect KILN/KCMH/KLCK over the next hour or two. This will result in MVFR conditions and the potential for some localized IFR conditions. Showers will then taper off from the west through late evening with VFR conditions developing.

Wrap around moisture will spread back down into the region late tonight into the day on Sunday. This will result in MVFR cigs through the remainder of the TAF period. A few showers will also be possible heading into Sunday afternoon, primarily across central Ohio.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible into Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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