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FXUS61 KILN 101742 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1242 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
In the wake of a cold front a cold northwest flow will offer cloudy conditions with a few flurries or light snow showers late in the day into this evening, mainly north of Interstate 70. High pressure builds into the region on Monday, with decreasing clouds and continued cool temperatures. Dry weather will ensue through the week with moderating temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Clouds will persist area wide throughout the day. Temperatures will be nearly steady.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Mid level trof axis to pivot thru the area this evening. A low level moisture stream coming off of Lake Michigan may result in scattered snow showers/flurries across ILN/s northern counties this evening. As surface high pressure begins to build into the southwest late tonight clouds will decrease. Chilly temperatures will drop to lows tonight that will range from the lower 20s over Eastern Indiana to the upper 20s over Central Ohio.

Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building into the area Monday. Clouds will decrease from southwest to northeast increasing afternoon sunshine. Slightly below normal temperatures will be observed with highs from the mid/upper 30s north to around 40 south.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A quiet weather period is expected next week across the region especially considering we are entering the middle of December. On Tuesday, an area of high pressure will be drifting southeast of the Ohio Valley. Southwesterly flow northwest of the high advects mild air into the area leading to highs in the middle to upper 40s for most locations. Fairly abundant sunshine is expected.

Clouds increase on Tuesday night when the first area of high pressure moves further southeast giving way to a cold front and another high moving in from the northwest. No precipitation is expected ahead of the front since forcing remains weak and PWATs remain near or below average. The second area of high pressure takes over on Wednesday briefly bringing in cooler temperatures on northerly flow before shifting east of the Ohio River Valley. Winds shift back to the south by Thursday once again allowing the return of mild December conditions.

The next low end chance for rain does not arrive until the weekend or start of next week when a low is forecast to the east/southeast.
Most ensemble guidance keeps any low pressure system that forms off or near the east coast which means dry conditions are a fairly high probability over the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Ceilings starting off right around the VFR/MVFR threshold. These will lower solidly into MVFR during the early part of the period. Expect all terminals to drop below 2kft overnight. There will be some lifting and even breaks in the clouds late in the period. West northwest winds will back slightly on Monday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Monday afternoon.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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