Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Beach Haven, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:09PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 7:39 PM EDT (23:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:23AMMoonset 3:14PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201910231015;;119102 Fzus51 Kphi 222227 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 627 Pm Edt Tue Oct 22 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-231015- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 627 Pm Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain until early morning, then a chance of showers late.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 627 Pm Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front passes through the region tonight. High pressure returns for the midweek and dominates through most of Friday. Another cold front passes through Friday night. Low pressure may affect the area by late this weekend into the start of the new work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Beach Haven, NJ
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location: 39.61, -74.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 222241
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
641 pm edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front passes through the region tonight. High pressure
returns for the midweek and dominates through most of Friday.

Another cold front passes through Friday night. Low pressure may
affect the area by late this weekend into the start of the new work
week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
The cold front is making steady progress into our area this
evening and will continue to push eastward and offshore through
tonight. An area of steadier rain is moving through new jersey,
eastern pa, and parts of de. Behind the steady rain is more of a
scattered area of showers that will gradually dissipate through
the tonight as the the winds start to shift to the west and
allow for some dry air to make its way into the region. Made
some minor adjustments to the timing of the rain, temperatures,
and the fronts arrival but otherwise the forecast looks to be in
pretty good shape.

Synoptically, a strong upper-level trough will continue to shift
eastward from the great lakes region with the associated occluded
surface low moving into canada. The cold front will swing across our
area tonight. The front will be accompanied by mid and upper level
jet streaks. A low-level jet on the order of about 40 knots will
cross mostly our southern zones this evening in conjuction with a
weak surface low tracking along the front. These will enhance some
of the rain however the entire system looks fairly progressive and
therefore heavier rainfall duration should be limited. Given an axis
of nearly 2-inch pwat values ahead of the front, some heavier rain
cannot be ruled out with the highest rainfall amounts still expected
across mainly northeastern pennsylvania and northern new jersey,
though there is some potential for a secondary maximum in coastal
areas as a strengthening low level jet may help enhance rainfall as
the system starts to push offshore.

Continue to maintain no thunder in the forecast as today's weather
has obviously not allowed any instability to build, though there
could be a very small amount aloft. It should be noted that during
the evening and early overnight, especially across the southern
areas where the low-level jet is stronger, some heavier rain could
result in brief stronger wind gusts even without thunder, although
the soundings overall do not look all that favorable regarding the
transfer of stronger winds down to the surface.

As the front moves offshore overnight, a wind shift to west and
northwest occurs allowing cold air advection to take over and also
some drying to work in. We are expecting clearing to take place
overnight from west to east as a result, and there could be a brief
period when the winds turn a bit gusty behind the cold front given
the rapid increase in cold air advection.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Pleasant weather returns for Wednesday as high pressure starts to
build in from our southwest behind the cold front. Breezy conditions
are likely in the enhanced pressure gradient between the approaching
high and the departing low, but gusts should mainly stay in the 20
to 25 mph range. Westerly flow will advect much drier air into the
region with dew points falling through the day. We will have low
level cold air advection ongoing behind the front also. The air mass
behind the front is a good deal cooler than the one ahead of it, but
we already will be seeing height rises in the mid levels during the
day tomorrow. Along with full sunshine and dry air we should still
see temperatures climb into the low 60s in most places, with mid 60s
possible to the south. Overall, should be a nice day.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
Wednesday night through Friday...

high pressure dominates through most of this period resulting in
fair weather with light winds and seasonable temperatures. The one
thing that will have to be watched is that by late Friday an upper
disturbance looks to approach from the great lakes and this
will result in increasing clouds with a chance of some late day
showers across the north. This would be mainly for the southern
poconos and NW nj.

Friday night through Tuesday...

there still remains a lot of uncertainty in the long range forecast
as forecast models continue to show differing solutions. The main
issue is regarding the handling of an upper level trough as it moves
se into the central part of the CONUS through the latter part of the
week. The GFS keeps this whole upper feature together as a more
progressive system while the ECMWF and the gem fracture the trough
leaving behind a lagging southern stream upper level low over texas
by Friday evening. How this plays out will impact our weekend
forecast and we continue to weight our forecast more towards the
ecmwf gem consensus. So this said, most likely scenario will be for
the northern stream wave to move through Friday night bringing with
it the chance of a few showers mainly over northern parts of the
forecast area before high pressure moves in and should dominate
through most of Saturday. However by late day Saturday as the
southern system begins to advance northeast, clouds may start to
increase. Beyond this time, chances for rain increase by Sunday as
low pressure looks to advance north and east towards the great
lakes. If the GFS solution were to pan out though, widespread rain
could arrive as early as the Friday night Saturday time frame due
to the more progressive nature of the pattern and possibly linger
into Sunday. Please check back for updates as the weekend forecast
should come into better focus over the next day or two.

Uncertainty in the forecast continues into early next week as gfs
features dominant upper trough over central canada into the northern
conus and brings in the next system by late Monday while the ecmwf
features an upper level ridge over the SE with the upper level
trough located farther west. This would keep the early part of next
week mainly dry with the next system arriving more towards the mid
to late week time frame. At this point, keep at least low chances
for rain in the forecast for next Monday and Tuesday but again, low
confidence this far out.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... There has been some modest improvement in ceilings during
the afternoon, but most areas remain ifr with some low end MVFR. The
improvement will be short lived, and any areas that went MVFR this
afternoon should flip back to ifr as steady rain moves in. The worst
of the conditions in the phl area should be in the 22z to 02z time
frame, a couple hours sooner to the west and a couple hours later to
the east. Localized lifr conditions are possible as the steady rain
moves through, but should stay mainly ifr. A fairly rapid
improvement to MVFR thenVFR is likely once rain ends, generally on
either side of 04z, earliest to the west and latest to the east.

Winds will initially remain southeasterly at around 10 kt through
the evening. As the front moves through, winds will briefly turn
light and variable then shift abruptly to the west-northwest at
around 10 kt. Moderate to high confidence in overall trends and
flight categories, moderate confidence in the timing.

Wednesday... VFR. West-northwest wind at around 10 kt with gusts to
20 kt possible. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR with mostly skc
conditions. Winds light and variable Wednesday night becoming sw
around 5-10 knots Thursday.

Friday through Friday night...VFR initially, then MVFR
possible, mainly at krdg kabe in -shra. South winds less than 10
kt, becoming NW Friday night.

Saturday...VFR if current forecast holds but low confidence as
there is little consistency among forecast model guidance. Nw
winds less than 10 kt, but confidence is low on that as well.

Saturday night through Sunday... Increasing chances for rain and
associated sub-vfr conditions. However continuing low forecast
confidence.

Marine
Through Wednesday...

a small craft advisory is in effect for the delaware bay through
late tonight, and for all other waters outside the delaware bay
through Wednesday evening. For the delaware bay, southeasterly winds
may gust near 25 kt this evening, though this may be a stretch. Once
the cold front passes, there should then be a more solid period of
west-northwesterly gusts to near 25 kt late tonight and Wednesday
morning before winds start to drop off. Outside of the bay, seas
will remain near 5 ft this evening and through tonight. Winds will
also increase late tonight as the cold front moves offshore. West-
northwesterly wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are likely later tonight and
much of Wednesday, even as seas will be falling below SCA levels. So
the advisory will remain in effect for much of the day, though we
will trend towards sub-sca conditions by evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday night... Winds and seas should
stay below SCA criteria.

Saturday... Generally sub-sca conditions, however gusts to 20 kt
are possible on the ocean waters by late day if low pressure
arrives sooner than currently expected.

Saturday night through Sunday... Low pressure with increasing
winds and seas likely to affect the waters but confidence is low
on the details including wind direction as the track and timing
of the low remains uncertain. That said, increasing chances for
at least SCA conditions.

Tides coastal flooding
The persistent east to southeast flow has kept the water trapped
in the chesapeake bay, making each subsequent high tide higher
than previously forecast since Sunday evening. This is expected
to continue until a persistent westerly flow can push the water
out of the chesapeake bay, which will come later this evening
and overnight. Until then, the next high tide late this evening
into the early overnight hours is forecast to reach the advisory
minor level at claiborne and tolchester beach. Therefore we
have issued a coastal flood advisory for kent, queen anne's,
talbot, and caroline counties.

Spotty minor tidal flooding will also occur on the tidal
delaware river as well as the extreme upper part of delaware
bay.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... Coastal flood advisory from 2 am to 7 am edt Wednesday for
mdz012.

Coastal flood advisory from 11 pm this evening to 4 am edt
Wednesday for mdz015-019-020.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Wednesday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... Meola o'brien
short term... O'brien
long term... Fitzsimmons
aviation... Fitzsimmons o'brien
marine... Fitzsimmons o'brien
tides coastal flooding... Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 14 mi70 min ESE 7 63°F 1011 hPa62°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 21 mi58 min 64°F 61°F1010.9 hPa
44091 26 mi40 min 63°F5 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 46 mi58 min SSE 4.1 G 7 62°F 56°F1011.3 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi64 min Calm G 4.1 63°F 56°F1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ22 mi46 minSE 1110.00 miLight Rain65°F62°F90%1010.1 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi44 minSE 810.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KACY

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4CalmCalmE3SE3E5E3CalmE5E4E5E6E8E8E6E9SE13SE11SE12SE9
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1 day agoNE15
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2 days agoSW6SW4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3SE10SE7E56NE10NE12E12NE15
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Tide / Current Tables for Beach Haven Crest, New Jersey
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Beach Haven Crest
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:56 AM EDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:54 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:08 PM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.50.91.31.61.71.61.410.70.50.40.40.511.51.9221.71.410.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:09 AM EDT     2.00 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:11 AM EDT     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:37 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:24 PM EDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:56 PM EDT     -2.57 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.521.70.90.1-0.7-1.3-1.8-2-1.8-0.80.51.72.42.41.60.5-0.4-1.2-1.8-2.3-2.6-2.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.