Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eagle, CO
May 15, 2024 12:52 AM MDT (06:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:43 AM Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 11:48 AM Moonset 1:22 AM |
Area Discussion for - Grand Junction, CO
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FXUS65 KGJT 150526 AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1126 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue, with gusty outflows, small hail, and downpours possible.
- Temperatures begin to warm up Thursday and beyond, highs will trend 5 degrees over climatology into next week.
- Breezy and warm conditions this weekend ahead of another approaching front.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
An upper level trough working its way across the northern Rockies with a fetch of upper level moisture in tow has produced widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon. The majority of storms are getting an orographic push, while valleys remain under broken skies. This surface heating is keeping things lively deep into the afternoon and will continue into the overnight hours with the upper level disturbance's tilted orientation increasing its residency. While the bulk of forcing works eastward across northern Colorado by tomorrow morning, remnant moisture and persistent cyclonic flow will keep showers and thunderstorms alive again Wednesday afternoon. Coverage looks to shift south and east, but enough moisture and orographics will likely see a few north- facing aspects up north spark a shower or two in the afternoon Wednesday. Down south on the San Juans and across the Divide look to remain active with more widespread showers in place Wednesday.
Storms will once again deliver their standard package of gusty outflows, heavy downpours, and small hail. Cloud cover and more aggressive north winds Wednesday will see temperatures trend down slightly. The pinched low trailing behind the upper level trough will kick out of SOCAL Wednesday night and pull more dry air in behind it by Thursday morning, putting the wraps on showers as a heavily tilted ridge noses east over the West Slope.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
High pressure will send temperatures back into the 80's for our desert valleys and nearly 70 in the mountains Thursday afternoon. A few showers will likely get a glimmer of hope along the Continental Divide during afternoon heating Thursday. These will be short-lived and probably just result in a few virga downbursts, with gusty winds and non-wetting rains. The warm and dry trend keeps going Friday as the transitory ridge pulls away and another trough comes ashore over the PACNW. Models are hinting at more moisture lifting north and eastward across the Great Basin ahead of this trough Friday afternoon. This will probably be enough for a few terrain-based showers to form again. Late Friday night, the trough drags through the CWA and kicks off another round of nocturnal showers. The best moisture seems to favor the central portion of the CWA For now it looks like betting on some scattered overnight showers with a few heavier embedded showers is safe. A transient dirty ridge works through Saturday, keeping hopes alive for a few more showers taking advantage of any lingering surface moisture from Friday night.
Models are working with a deepening trough off the SOCAL coast Saturday night. Ahead of this trough, a frontal boundary lifts into southwest Colorado and provides another opportunity for some showers Saturday night and into Sunday as the front lifts northward. This will likely bring breezy, warm conditions to the region, but ample moisture looks to keep critical fire weather conditions muted. The upper trough begins to lift eastward on Monday and Tuesday, likely keeping unsettled conditions in place. This active pattern is likely to take some twists and turns as models recalibrate after each wave.
Temperatures look to trend upward this weekend thanks to strong southwest flow, but clouds and rain are likely to have a muting effect in some locales. However, no serious cold air advection is expected to arrive. Spring is certainly showing some signs of giving up its fight.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
A band of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across western Colorado through the early morning hours with little to no impacts expected besides potential and temporary ILS conditions. After a quiet morning another round of isolated to widely scattered storms can be expected by early Wednesday afternoon. Gusty outflow winds remain the main concern with these storms. Otherwise VFR prevails the next 24 hours.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...None.
UT...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1126 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue, with gusty outflows, small hail, and downpours possible.
- Temperatures begin to warm up Thursday and beyond, highs will trend 5 degrees over climatology into next week.
- Breezy and warm conditions this weekend ahead of another approaching front.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
An upper level trough working its way across the northern Rockies with a fetch of upper level moisture in tow has produced widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon. The majority of storms are getting an orographic push, while valleys remain under broken skies. This surface heating is keeping things lively deep into the afternoon and will continue into the overnight hours with the upper level disturbance's tilted orientation increasing its residency. While the bulk of forcing works eastward across northern Colorado by tomorrow morning, remnant moisture and persistent cyclonic flow will keep showers and thunderstorms alive again Wednesday afternoon. Coverage looks to shift south and east, but enough moisture and orographics will likely see a few north- facing aspects up north spark a shower or two in the afternoon Wednesday. Down south on the San Juans and across the Divide look to remain active with more widespread showers in place Wednesday.
Storms will once again deliver their standard package of gusty outflows, heavy downpours, and small hail. Cloud cover and more aggressive north winds Wednesday will see temperatures trend down slightly. The pinched low trailing behind the upper level trough will kick out of SOCAL Wednesday night and pull more dry air in behind it by Thursday morning, putting the wraps on showers as a heavily tilted ridge noses east over the West Slope.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
High pressure will send temperatures back into the 80's for our desert valleys and nearly 70 in the mountains Thursday afternoon. A few showers will likely get a glimmer of hope along the Continental Divide during afternoon heating Thursday. These will be short-lived and probably just result in a few virga downbursts, with gusty winds and non-wetting rains. The warm and dry trend keeps going Friday as the transitory ridge pulls away and another trough comes ashore over the PACNW. Models are hinting at more moisture lifting north and eastward across the Great Basin ahead of this trough Friday afternoon. This will probably be enough for a few terrain-based showers to form again. Late Friday night, the trough drags through the CWA and kicks off another round of nocturnal showers. The best moisture seems to favor the central portion of the CWA For now it looks like betting on some scattered overnight showers with a few heavier embedded showers is safe. A transient dirty ridge works through Saturday, keeping hopes alive for a few more showers taking advantage of any lingering surface moisture from Friday night.
Models are working with a deepening trough off the SOCAL coast Saturday night. Ahead of this trough, a frontal boundary lifts into southwest Colorado and provides another opportunity for some showers Saturday night and into Sunday as the front lifts northward. This will likely bring breezy, warm conditions to the region, but ample moisture looks to keep critical fire weather conditions muted. The upper trough begins to lift eastward on Monday and Tuesday, likely keeping unsettled conditions in place. This active pattern is likely to take some twists and turns as models recalibrate after each wave.
Temperatures look to trend upward this weekend thanks to strong southwest flow, but clouds and rain are likely to have a muting effect in some locales. However, no serious cold air advection is expected to arrive. Spring is certainly showing some signs of giving up its fight.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024
A band of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across western Colorado through the early morning hours with little to no impacts expected besides potential and temporary ILS conditions. After a quiet morning another round of isolated to widely scattered storms can be expected by early Wednesday afternoon. Gusty outflow winds remain the main concern with these storms. Otherwise VFR prevails the next 24 hours.
GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CO...None.
UT...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEGE EAGLE COUNTY RGNL,CO | 5 sm | 56 min | ENE 06 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 48°F | 41°F | 76% | 30.06 |
Grand Junction, CO,
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