Eagle, CO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eagle, CO

April 16, 2024 5:47 AM MDT (11:47 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM
Moonrise 11:54 AM   Moonset 2:22 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Area Discussion for - Grand Junction, CO
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FXUS65 KGJT 161140 AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 540 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant snowfall continues through this morning impacting the northern and central Colorado mountains, including Vail and Rabbit Ears passes. Look for these showers to decrease through the afternoon.

- Breezy, milder, and unsettled conditions linger through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 345 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Satellite imagery shows the low is just now pushing out onto the front range with the H500 low centered just north of the Palmer Divide, farther north than all the models predicted, and the lower level, H700 low emerging east of Boulder, well south of the model predictions near Cheyenne. That the low is more vertically stacked indicates the more barotropic nature of the low having left the frontal boundary hung up in the mountains.
This would also explain the low moving much slower, six hours or more behind the model predictions. Look for strong frontogenesis once the low moves out onto the Plains this morning and picks up steam ejecting to the east- northeast. That the motions of the low is running behind the models may indicate the wrap-around moisture will be a little slower to move east of the Divide allowing showers to hang on into the afternoon hours in the northern and central Colorado mountains, though with daytime heating, few if any impacts will come of the extended showers. A weak ridge is moving into the region behind the low with subsidence curbing the stronger convection we saw overnight and limiting showers to lighter, orographic driven activity from here on out.

Look for an additional few inches snow possible in the central and northern Colorado mountains generally above 8,000 feet with local accumulations of up to ten inches possible on the Park Range above 10,000 feet. Thus the Winter Weather Advisory for the Elkhead/Park Mountains to the north, and the Gore/Elk Mountains and Flat Tops to the south continues until noon today.
Be aware that there are currently winter driving conditions on Vail and Rabbit Ears Passes that may continue through the morning hours, and that east-bound Vail Pass is closed for safety concerns. These conditions should rapidly improve through the day as temperatures warm.

As the ridge moves in this afternoon, temperatures will warm to near normal in the mountains and to about five degrees above normal in the lower valleys with the clouds scattering out from southwest to northeast across the region. The ridge will transit the region overnight as the next trough system to the northwest drops southeast into Idaho and Wyoming. Satellite imagery shows the frontal boundary just moving into northern Washington in good agreement with the models. This boundary will push south to about the Colorado/Wyoming Border where it will tend to stall out for the next few days, but more on that below. There is a weak AR associated with this system with IVT's running 100-200 kg/m/s. This isn't so much a lot of moisture in the AR, but more a result of the strong zonal flow aloft with H500 winds running 60 to 75 kts advecting a light stream of moisture off the Pacific through Oregon and into the northern areas of eastern Utah and Western Colorado by Wednesday morning. Though the moisture is limited, it will still be enough to produce light orographic showers again Wednesday with showers pushing south to the Flat Tops in the afternoon. The will produce little if any snow accumulations over the higher elevations. Clouds will generally stay north of the I-70 Corridor Wednesday with skies being mostly sunny to the south. Temperatures will remain near normal across the northern areas with the clouds and showers, but will warm to about ten degrees above normal along and south of I-70 tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 345 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Primarily zonal flow will remain across the Western Slope from mid to late this week with a large low pressure trough situated to our north and high pressure to our south. This will create a tight thermal gradient with moisture and overrunning precipitation across the north and drier conditions across much of the central and southern areas. Westerly orographics should keep snow falling in the mountains, especially over the Park Range, with the best potential through Wednesday evening. From Wednesday through Saturday, the Park Range stands the best chance to see some accumulating snowfall. However, each 24 hr period during this time really doesn't amount to all that much with maybe 1 to 3 inches each day across the higher elevations of the northern Colorado mountains and potentially extending down into the central mountains by Friday and Saturday as shortwave moving around this large trough swings southward and helps drive this moisture east with high pressure ridging and drier air replacing it by Sunday into early next week. So, even though light orographic snow will continue in this westerly flow across the northern and eventually central mountains, snow levels will remain fairly high with minimal impacts. Some showers may even exhibit virga, resulting in gustier winds rather than precipitation reaching the ground as low levels continue to dry.

Temperatures across the northern mountains and adjacent valleys look to remain near to around 5 degrees below normal from mid week through the coming weekend in this unsettled pattern.
However, much different story for the central and southern areas as temperatures rise to around 5 to 10 degrees above normal (give or take). These warmer temperatures expand northward Sunday into early next week as the moisture exits and high pressure moves in, with highs potentially rising to 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Being that the upper level jet stream remains north of the forecast area, the gradient will be tight enough to promote decent mixing for breezy conditions each afternoon. These gusty winds along with low relative humidity across the central and southern valleys will help promote elevated fire weather concerns where fuels are dry.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 521 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Rain and high elevation snow showers continue across the northern and central Colorado mountains producing periods of MVFR to IFR conditions at KHDN, KEGE, KRIL and KASE with ceilings below ILS breakpoints. KTEX also has low ceilings below the ILS breakpoint. Look for these clouds to move east out of the region through the morning and early afternoon with conditions improving west to east. Look for breezy west to northwest winds today with some TAF sites seeing gust to 20 to 30 kts through the morning and afternoon. Skies will clear out this evening and overnight with another band of clouds and showers moving into the northern areas by about 12Z tomorrow.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ004-010- 013.
UT...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KEGE EAGLE COUNTY RGNL,CO 5 sm51 minWSW 1410 smOvercast39°F30°F70%29.93
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Grand Junction, CO,



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