Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Eagle, CO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 357 PM MST Sun Jan 12 2025

A split has developed at mid-levels with a broad lobe of low pressure forming over the Southwest. Cold air aloft has resulted in steep lapse rates which, when combined with orographic lift has sustained isolated to scattered snow showers over the mountains. In contrast, the lower elevations were largely sunny to mostly sunny and dry. Temperatures, as expected, were cooler today as colder air infiltrated the region with Saturday's storm.

The low pressure lobe becomes more pronounced overnight with the center of a circulation developing over the Four Corners later tonight. Lift and orographics associated with this feature are expected to bring an uptick in snow showers over the southern face of the San Juan Mountains during the early morning hours into Monday morning. With the trough lingering over the south and warming temperatures during the afternoon, the San Juans will see an increase in convective snow showers during the latter part of the day. Meanwhile, modest moisture in the northerly flow is expected to bring isolated to low end scattered showers to the Elkhead and Park Mountains.
Accumulations are expected to be light and localized. Since northerly flow will continue, temperatures are expected to remain a little below normal.

As the atmosphere stabilizes and the trough axis shifts south of the forecast area on Monday night, showers will largely dissipate in the south. However, persistent moisture in northwest flow is expected to sustain some light snow over the northernmost Colorado ranges through the night. Overnight lows should be similar to those forecast for tonight as colder air remains embedded over the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 357 PM MST Sun Jan 12 2025

A closed low, retrograding westward off the SoCal Coast, forms a Rex Block as a bubble of high pressure slides overhead. This blocking pattern creates an amplified ridge, extending northward, along the BC Coast. Since we fall on the downstream side of said ridge, northerly winds are draped across eastern Utah and western Colorado on Tuesday. A small wave, rippling over the ridge axis, will clip the northeast tier of the forecast area Tuesday evening, which may provide light showers over the Elkhead, Park and Gore Ranges. Moisture is bleak in this round, so despite a little wiggle of atmospheric energy and orographics at play, we don't expect much in terms of accumulation Tuesday night.

The Rex Block breaks down by Wednesday, as the next trough swings inland over the BC and eventually dives into the lower 48. As the upstream pattern shifts, weather across eastern Utah and western Colorado remains fairly benign through Thursday.
However, once this North Pacific trough slides into Washington state, the closed SoCal low is pulled back inland, forming a broad trough across much of the CONUS. Winds aloft turn zonal ahead of the approaching PacNW low on Friday, which will pull cold air and an anomalously moist air mass across the Central Rockies. The strength of this cold front varies between model runs, but this system has potential for another round of widespread snow over the weekend. In addition, the southern extent of this low/cold front will really dictate how much moisture reaches our southwest ranges. But, for now, confidence is high that the Yampa River Basin and Colorado Headwaters will get another decent round of snow (70 to 80 percent chance snow totals exceeds 6 inches over the highest terrain). By the end of the long term, the broad synoptic trough will engulf most of the lower 48, leaving a cold air mass settled overhead. High temperatures are progged to sit at or above normal for mid January, with the weekend's cold front dropping us back below normal in its wake.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 444 PM MST Sun Jan 12 2025

Any remaining mountain snow should be coming to an end. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period.
However, low-level cloud coverage may persist around mountain sites overnight, potentially causing ILS breakpoints to be met at KASE, KEGE, KHDN, KTEX, and KDRO. Winds will generally be light.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None.
UT...None.