Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Foxfield, CO

UPDATE
Issued at 907 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Lots of weak showers out there, but probably none of it reaching the ground except for the area from Rabbit Ears Pass to Rocky Mountain National Park. This activity will diminish over the next couple of hours. The winds are also dropping off, with a little surge of easterly winds into Denver that will transition back to the normal southerly drainage winds in the early morning hours.
We tweaked the wind details, no other changes at this time.

SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/
Issued at 226 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Upper level trough moving across Montana and Wyoming is brining widespread rain to the Dakotas. For Colorado, it's tricky. There's subsidence from the trough and westerly downslope flow. However, water vapor satellite imagery showing a band of lift across the state leading to isolated showers over the mountains. This narrow band of lift is associated with the right entrance region of a jet. The air over the Front Range and eastern plains is very dry.
So any shower development off the higher terrain will be high-base and precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground. Main weather concern through this evening will be the gusty west winds reaching 30 to 40 mph.

For Tuesday, westerly flow aloft will prevail again. Airmass becomes slightly unstable during the afternoon with SBCAPE up to 200 J/kg.
Expect isolated to scattered high-based showers to develop Tuesday afternoon. Any rainfall reaching the ground will be light. Gusty outflow winds will be common with the showers.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/
Issued at 226 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Colorado will be under the influence of a weak to moderate southwesterly flow aloft Tuesday night through Saturday. There may be a few showers and storms lingering across the Northeastern Plains Tuesday evening as a weak upper level disturbance moves across the region. However, due to limited moisture, the showers and storms should mainly produce light rain and gusty winds. The chance for precipitation is expected to increase across the forecast area on Wednesday as an upper level shortwave moves across the area. In addition, we should start advecting more low level moisture from the east and southeast which should result in more instability and shear across the plains, mainly east of I-25. As a result, there is the potential for some stronger storms during the late afternoon and early evening hours, mainly across far Northeastern Colorado. SPC has this area under a Marginal Risk for hail and winds which seems reasonable. Further to the west, the storms should be higher based with brief light to moderate rain and gusty winds possible.

On Thursday, cooler temperatures are expected as a weak cool front moves across Northeastern Colorado. As a result, our far northeastern zones may be too capped to see any convection with the activity focused further south and west. Due to the cooler airmass at the surface, the stability may inhibit the strength of the storms. However, there could be a sweet spot where temperatures warm up enough to allow some stronger storms to develop. If this happens, it would most likely occur to the south and east of Denver.

By Thursday evening, a secondary surge of cooler air is expected to move across Northeastern Colorado with upslope flow behind it. This pattern should lead to scattered to numerous showers across the CWA

Friday looks to be a cool and cloudy day along and east of the mountains as the upslope flow continues. There may be areas of drizzle in the morning with scattered showers by afternoon. The showers should be most numerous across the Front Range Mountains and foothills.

On Saturday, warmer and drier weather should return as the upslope flow diminishes. However, there could still be isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms, most numerous across the far northeastern zones as lingering moisture combines with daytime heating.

Looking further ahead, there is some uncertainty in the Sunday and Monday forecast due to model differences. Overall, it looks like an upper level trough will move across the region with continued unsettled weather both days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Mon Apr 21 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Drainage flow continues to gradually develop at the terminals and should continue through the overnight hours. A Denver Cyclone is likely to develop by early Tuesday afternoon, with guidance favoring northeast at DEN. There should also be a gradual increase in high based showers across the area during the afternoon. Little precipitation is expected, but a few outflow boundaries could produce some variable/gusty winds at all of the terminals from roughly 20-02z.

Winds may briefly go back to drainage, with a weak frontal push expected near or after 06z tomorrow night.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.