Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Foxfield, CO
June 5, 2023 1:44 AM MDT (07:44 UTC)
Sunrise 5:31AM Sunset 8:25PM Moonrise 10:43PM Moonset 6:33AM
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Foxfield, COHourly EDIT Help
location: 39.64, -104.8
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KBOU 050533 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1133 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023
Showers are decreasing as expected, with not much lightning left.
There is still a batch of showers that will likely move through the Front Range cities in a couple of hours, then there should be quite a bit less after that. Fog is an interesting question as there is still quite a bit of high cloudiness across most of the area. However it is thinning and should be eroding from the northeast as well. We did bump up the areas of fog for a few hours in the morning, though it could be mostly stratus off the ground.
This is especially true for Denver where weak south winds should provide a little drying/mixing. Monday's forecast looks alright although if there is more extensive/persistent morning stratus it could lower the high temperatures and delay the development of showers/storms in the afternoon.
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023
Yet another very wet day across northeast Colorado today, with widespread rainfall amounts of 0.75-2" across the foothills and urban corridor over the past 24 hours. And there's more to come.
The blocking high anchored over the northern plains and Canada, combined with a dissipating weak trough of low pressure over the central plains, has continued to funnel abundant Gulf moisture into the Front Range. ACARS soundings from KDEN indicate PWAT values around 0.95", very close to the daily maximum value for June 4th per SPC sounding climatology. As expected, precipitation is becoming increasingly intermittent and even slightly convective over the plains this afternoon, with help from some partial clearing and a few surface boundaries. Marginal instability will creep into the northeast plains this afternoon and should be sufficient for a few thunderstorms. Can't rule out one or two surviving into the urban corridor, but anything severe is unlikely. Another widespread 0.25" can be expected for almost all of our foothills and I-25 corridor today, and some spots impacted by the heaviest showers/thunderstorms may pick up an additional 0.50-0.75" by tonight. Rain has generally been light to moderate and steady, tapering flood concerns. Greatest potential for flooding impacts remains in and around the Cameron Peak burn scar.
If a heavier cell or thunderstorm moves over the scar later this afternoon, given the 1"+ of rain that's already fallen, flash flood concerns would be considerably heightened. Elsewhere, only minor flooding of poor drainage areas is likely.
Ample clouds will linger overnight and with plenty of low-level moisture after today's rain, areas of fog can be anticipated by early Monday morning for parts of the plains and urban corridor.
The cloud cover will sustain relatively mild overnight lows in the low 50's, similar to last night.
For Monday, the aforementioned closed low dissipates, and winds over the plains become southeasterly, with generally westerly flow returning to the high country. As a result, PWAT amounts look to fall closer to average values for the lower elevations, although will remain up to 200% of normal in the high country.
With slightly better clearing tomorrow afternoon, a few hundred J/Kg of MLCAPE are likely in the plains, which may support some isolated late afternoon/evening convection. However, the bulk of the precipitation tomorrow will remain confined to the high country, where moisture will be maximized. Weak steering level flow will make for slow-moving showers and thunderstorms, and sustain at least a limited threat of flash flooding for recent burn scars. This slow movement may also limit how much activity is able to drift eastward into the urban corridor and plains.
Overall, will be a much drier day across the lower elevations.
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023
Models continue to show a blocking upper high over the northern central U.S. Monday night through Wednesday night and on into the extended period. There is neutral to weak upward synoptic scale energy for the CWA. Models also continue to show east and southeasterly low level winds through most of the CWA well into the mountains. For moisture, surface dew point progs show 50S F for the plains and foothills with precipitable water amounts in the 0.70 to 1.10 inch range for those areas. Models show surface temperatures to warm up a bit both Tuesday and Wednesday with CAPE coming up as well. So instability will be a bit better each day.
This and the moisture should keep the pops in the "likely" category both Tuesday and Wednesday.
For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, models show the upper high center to move a west and north to be over southern and central parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan all four days. There will still be upper ridging over the CWA through the period. Models continue to show plenty of moisture and QPF through the four days, so the cool moist late Spring weather should continue.
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023
Expect VFR conditions in general tonight, though scattered showers may bring intermittent MVFR or IFR conditions. Later tonight, IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely to develop after 08z, and dissipation is forecast in the morning between 14z and 16z. Tomorrow afternoon, expect scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity after 21z, which should bring moderate rain and gusts up to around 30 knots. MVRF conditions are possible with passing storms. Ceilings likely near or just below 6000 feet. Winds should be mostly southeasterly tomorrow outside of storm outflow.
Issued at 231 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023
Scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm will continue to impact all areas east of the Continental Divide through this evening. Rainfall rates will mostly stay below 0.30"/hr, however a few smaller cells/thunderstorms may produce brief rainfall rates to 0.75-1"/hr. Low confidence in such rates reaching the Cameron Peak burn scar, but if that were to occur, today's widespread 0.75-1.50" over the burn area would serve to increase the potential for flash flood impacts for any heavier showers. Gauges in and around the burn scar, such as along Buckhorn Creek, the Cache la Poudre, or North Fork Big Thompson have exhibited stage rises of approximately 0.5-1 ft. Additional rises are possible with additional precipitation this afternoon and evening.
Elsewhere, only minor flooding/ponding is expected in poor drainage and urban areas.
For Monday, more showers and thunderstorms are expected, particularly in the high country. These may be slow moving thus sustain a threat of flash flooding on the burn scars, including those west of the Divide.
The long period of recent rainfall has made the soils pretty saturated in many areas of the CWA. There should be higher CAPE values most of next weak and plenty of moisture is still expected as well. As a result, flash flooding is possible for much of the CWA and especially over the burn areas in the mountains.
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|KBKF BUCKLEY AFB,CO||5 sm||46 min||calm||10 sm||Mostly Cloudy||54°F||54°F||100%||30.22|
|KAPA CENTENNIAL,CO||6 sm||51 min||SSW 04||10 sm||Overcast||54°F||52°F||94%||30.23|
|KCFO COLORADO AIR AND SPACE PORT,CO||17 sm||29 min||S 04||10 sm||Overcast||57°F||55°F||94%||30.23|
|KDEN DENVER INTL,CO||17 sm||51 min||SSW 04||10 sm||Mostly Cloudy||55°F||52°F||88%||30.21|
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Wind History from APA (wind in knots)
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