Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Foxfield, CO
May 16, 2024 10:43 PM MDT (04:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:42 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 1:40 PM Moonset 2:37 AM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 170222 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 822 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Much warmer and drier Friday.
- Breezier Sunday into Monday with localized fire weather concerns possible depending on fuel conditions.
- Cooler and potentially more unsettled Monday/Tuesday with increasing precipitation changes region-wide.
UPDATE
Issued at 819 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024
Mid level moisture is moving southeast from WY which has allowed for some virga near the CO-WY over the plains. This activity should end in the next few hours. Otherwise, only minor adjustments to current fcst.
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024
A few showers/storms will remain possible over the higher terrain through early evening. Most of this activity is expected to be south of I-70. The airmass quickly stabilizes this evening leading to mostly clear skies with a few high clouds at times overnight.
Upper level ridge moves across Colorado tonight and Friday morning bringing warm and dry air with it. Temperatures are expected to reach the 80s across northeast Colorado Friday afternoon, warmest temperatures so far this year. Cross sections show some high based cumulus clouds for Friday, otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry conditions will prevail. The ridge shifts east of the state Friday afternoon. Westerly flow behind it will increase. These stronger winds aloft will mix down bringing gusty winds to 35 mph the higher terrain and also across far northern Colorado.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024
A broad upper trough will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Plains States Friday night with a moderate westerly flow aloft over Colorado. A shortwave moving across the Northern Rockies will help push a cold front across the Northeastern Colorado Saturday morning resulting in breezy conditions and cooler temperatures on the plains. Some of the models are now showing some moisture return behind the front which could lead to isolated to scattered (10% to 40%) showers and storms across the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours.
On Sunday, a similar upper level pattern remains in place with some downsloping flow east of the mountains and breezy to windy conditions in the foothills. This should flush out the surface moisture on the plains, resulting in a dry and warmer day with temperatures climbing back into the 80s. However, higher dewpoints may linger across the far eastern zones with the potential for some stronger storms by late afternoon or evening. In addition, there should be enough mid level moisture combined with daytime heating to produce isolated to scattered high based showers and storms across the remainder of the forecast area.
On Monday, the upper level flow over colorado strengthens and becomes more southwesterly in response to and upper level trough deepening over the Intermountain West. Models are showing a 110KT+ upper jet over the southeastern half of Colorado with a surface low over Southeastern Colorado advecting low level moisture into the far northeastern plains. With this pattern, there would be a large amount of shear and ample lift to produce severe weather across far northeastern Colorado. However, there is some uncertainty in how much low level moisture and instability will be available. If the moisture remains to the east of Colorado, the severe weather threat would be over Kansas and Nebraska. However, if the higher dewpoints are pulled further to the west, it could be a pretty active day across the far northeastern corner of the state.
Cooler unsettled weather will be possible on Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front moves across the state.
For Wednesday and Thursday, Colorado will be under the influence of a quasi-zonal flow aloft with some drier air moving into the state from the west. Therefore, warmer temperatures along with decreased precipitation chances are expected.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/
Issued at 503 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024
VFR conditions thru the period. Light SE winds will become south by 04z and stay drainage overniight. Light SSW winds on Fri will become WNW by 21z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 822 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Much warmer and drier Friday.
- Breezier Sunday into Monday with localized fire weather concerns possible depending on fuel conditions.
- Cooler and potentially more unsettled Monday/Tuesday with increasing precipitation changes region-wide.
UPDATE
Issued at 819 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024
Mid level moisture is moving southeast from WY which has allowed for some virga near the CO-WY over the plains. This activity should end in the next few hours. Otherwise, only minor adjustments to current fcst.
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024
A few showers/storms will remain possible over the higher terrain through early evening. Most of this activity is expected to be south of I-70. The airmass quickly stabilizes this evening leading to mostly clear skies with a few high clouds at times overnight.
Upper level ridge moves across Colorado tonight and Friday morning bringing warm and dry air with it. Temperatures are expected to reach the 80s across northeast Colorado Friday afternoon, warmest temperatures so far this year. Cross sections show some high based cumulus clouds for Friday, otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry conditions will prevail. The ridge shifts east of the state Friday afternoon. Westerly flow behind it will increase. These stronger winds aloft will mix down bringing gusty winds to 35 mph the higher terrain and also across far northern Colorado.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024
A broad upper trough will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Plains States Friday night with a moderate westerly flow aloft over Colorado. A shortwave moving across the Northern Rockies will help push a cold front across the Northeastern Colorado Saturday morning resulting in breezy conditions and cooler temperatures on the plains. Some of the models are now showing some moisture return behind the front which could lead to isolated to scattered (10% to 40%) showers and storms across the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours.
On Sunday, a similar upper level pattern remains in place with some downsloping flow east of the mountains and breezy to windy conditions in the foothills. This should flush out the surface moisture on the plains, resulting in a dry and warmer day with temperatures climbing back into the 80s. However, higher dewpoints may linger across the far eastern zones with the potential for some stronger storms by late afternoon or evening. In addition, there should be enough mid level moisture combined with daytime heating to produce isolated to scattered high based showers and storms across the remainder of the forecast area.
On Monday, the upper level flow over colorado strengthens and becomes more southwesterly in response to and upper level trough deepening over the Intermountain West. Models are showing a 110KT+ upper jet over the southeastern half of Colorado with a surface low over Southeastern Colorado advecting low level moisture into the far northeastern plains. With this pattern, there would be a large amount of shear and ample lift to produce severe weather across far northeastern Colorado. However, there is some uncertainty in how much low level moisture and instability will be available. If the moisture remains to the east of Colorado, the severe weather threat would be over Kansas and Nebraska. However, if the higher dewpoints are pulled further to the west, it could be a pretty active day across the far northeastern corner of the state.
Cooler unsettled weather will be possible on Tuesday as the upper trough and associated cold front moves across the state.
For Wednesday and Thursday, Colorado will be under the influence of a quasi-zonal flow aloft with some drier air moving into the state from the west. Therefore, warmer temperatures along with decreased precipitation chances are expected.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/
Issued at 503 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024
VFR conditions thru the period. Light SE winds will become south by 04z and stay drainage overniight. Light SSW winds on Fri will become WNW by 21z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBKF BUCKLEY AFB,CO | 5 sm | 45 min | S 12 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 61°F | 41°F | 48% | 29.87 | |
| KAPA CENTENNIAL,CO | 6 sm | 50 min | S 09 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 57°F | 43°F | 59% | 29.89 | |
| KCFO COLORADO AIR AND SPACE PORT,CO | 17 sm | 28 min | SSW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 45°F | 59% | 29.89 | |
| KDEN DENVER INTL,CO | 17 sm | 50 min | S 09 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 57°F | 43°F | 59% | 29.87 |
Denver/Boulder, CO,
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