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FXUS61 KILN 111906 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 206 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather is expected across the Ohio Valley through the end of the work week thanks to multiple areas of high pressure moving across the region. Moderating temperatures accompany the dry weather by Thursday due to southerly flow developing.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
High pressure remains centered just south of the Ohio Valley this afternoon into tonight as it slowly drifts east. The trend in clearing skies persists into the evening while low level moisture erodes. Light westerly flow backs to the southwest and increases by the second half of the night when a cold front starts encroaching from the northwest. Forecast lows drop into the 20s tonight before southerly winds increase late.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A weak cold front will approach the Ohio Valley from the northwest during the day on Tuesday. Southwesterly winds increase in response to a strengthening pressure gradient between surface highs to the northwest and southeast. Wind gusts around 25 mph will be possible by midday. Southwesterly winds and abundant sunshine help highs reach into the middle to upper 40s areawide.

FROPA is expected to occur Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as marked by a shift in winds to the northwest and drier dew points. Some enhanced cloud cover is possible overnight, but overall moisture and forcing is lacking with the front. Forecast lows drop into the 20s on fairly cold northwesterly flow east of the surface high building in from the northwest.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
In the wake of the cold front, some CAA will occur on Wednesday. Models indicate considerable mid and high level moisture to start, so it will start out mostly cloudy to begin with, but then clouds should thin and shift to the southeast throughout the day as a strong surface high builds in from the west. Highs will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s which is seasonable for mid December.

Stretches of quiet weather are forecast in the extended. Mid level confluent flow will transition over to a mid level ridge Thursday into Friday. At the surface, strong surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift to the east. Under mostly clear skies, highs will warm to above normal readings in the 40s and 50s. The coldest lows will occur Thursday morning with the high overhead, clear skies and dry atmosphere. Lows will be in the upper teens to the lower 20s. By Saturday morning, lows will have modified into the 25 to 30 degree range.

For the upcoming weekend and into early next week, models bring a couple of weak systems across the Great Lakes. Some operational models want to merge/phase these northern stream energies with a mid level closed low moving into the southern states. Still plenty of time to get these solutions resolved, so will keep the forecast mainly dry for now, although a low chance of rain was introduced Sunday night as a secondary weak cold front moves through. Highs in the 40s and 50s over the weekend will cool some into the lower and upper 40s by Monday.
Lows will be relatively mild in the lower 30s.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Skies will continue to scatter this afternoon giving way to VFR conditions the rest of the TAF period. There is some timing uncertainty regarding the exact timing of scattering out to VFR.

Westerly winds around 5-10 knots persist afternoon. Winds back to the south/southwest and increase late overnight when a cold front starts approaching from the northwest. Winds start veering back to the west by 0000z Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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