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FXUS61 KILN 072058 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 358 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
Southerly winds between high pressure to the southeast and an approaching system will keep temperatures above normal through the rest of the week with breezy daytime conditions. Showers will develop ahead of a cold front and spread across the area starting late Friday night with the precipitation continuing into Sunday. The cold front will cross the region Saturday night bringing sharply colder temperatures for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Surface winds will become less gusty this evening into the overnight hours as mixing decreases. However, the southwesterly flow ahead of the Great Plains low pressure system will keep a mild breeze going. Dry weather will continue.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Mid-level ridging will build into the middle Ohio Valley Friday as a trough digs into the Rockies into the High Plains. This will produce a relatively warm December day with high clouds increasing from the west associated with the approaching trough.

Clouds thicken up Friday night. An increasing low-level jet surges into the Ohio Valley late. Convergence ahead of this moist LLJ axis provides for a chance of showers by morning. Lows will stay up in the 40s to near 50 across the Tri State Region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Generally light rain showers will continue to spread across the region early in the period in association with an initial weak impulse. Showers will increase in coverage and intensity later Saturday and even moreso Saturday night as a cold front moves into the area with a wave of low pressure traveling up the front. There is the possibility of a bit of a lull in precipitation late Saturday night into early Sunday before the next wave of low pressure moves up the boundary in association the main mid level short wave pushing across the area.

Plenty of moisture is getting drawn into the system but there is still a fair amount of spread in guidance on where the primary rainfall axis will be, or whether there will be multiple axes, as well as maximum rainfall amounts. There is high probability that there will be more than 1 inch in at least parts of the forecast area with higher end amounts under 2 inches. Given the uncertainty and generally dry antecedent conditions, not too concerned about significant hydrologic issues at this time.
Furthermore, instability is quite meager at best. So thunder potential looks quite limited.

Precipitation may linger long enough on Sunday to get some mix or change over to snow on the back side of the precipitation shield, but at this point accumulation potential is minimal at best, with the official forecast having none. Some snow showers or flurries could persist into Sunday night especially in the trajectory coming off of Lake Michigan.

Once this system clears the region, a dry pattern will return with confluent mid level flow transitioning to ridging late in the period and high pressure at the surface.

Temperatures will be quite mild for the early part of the period. Readings will drop considerably with the frontal passage. Given the current timing, expect morning highs in the east with falling readings during the day. It appears that there will be some, very limited temperature recovery in the west after reaching early to mid morning lows. Cold conditions will continue into Monday with readings getting back to near or slightly above normal for the remainder of the period.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions should continue through the period. Gusty southwest winds this afternoon will relax a bit overnight.
Guidance is rather confident in bringing the potential for LLWS late tonight as winds increase to 40-45 knots at 2,000 AGL.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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