Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Circleville, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Increasing showers and storms developing through the afternoon into mid evening ahead of a shortwave over the lower Ohio Valley, with a frontal boundary laid out across the southern forecast area at this time. With an established ridge centered over the SE CONUS, the boundary will continue to be a focus of scattered showers and storms through the week. For this afternoon, the primary focus area will be the tri state region. Boundary layer shear and DCAPEs are fairly modest, so main the potential for a strong storm or two with heavy downpours, but there is some steering flow which should at least keep slow moving/clustering at bay. Coverage will become more isolated as the evening progresses.

While precip will become isolated overnight, the main shortwave approaches portions of northern KY by daybreak, so precip chances will increase again in this area after 09z. PWs do increase to over 2 inches or into the 90th percentile, which does raise some concern for heavy rain late tonight and into Wednesday, though overall storm movement is expected to remain progressive. Overnight lows in the lower 70s.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As the shortwave moves through the area on Wednesday, showers and storms will become more widespread. This, along with a surge of 2 inch+ PWs, does increase concern for additional swaths of heavy rain, which could create 12-24 hour accumulations of 2 inches or more. This will raise the potential for localized flooding especially in southern Ohio/northern KY and SE Indiana.

Highs on Wednesday in the upper 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Zonal flow will continue aloft through the weekend. As it does, a cold front will sag south across the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday before lifting back to the north as a warm front Saturday into Sunday.

Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Saturday. As we destabilize through the day, widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. There remains some uncertainty as to just how far south the front will make it through the day on Friday. This will determine pcpn chances Friday afternoon into the evening. As of now, it looks like the best chance for showers and thunderstorms associated with the front will be across our south, closer to the front, with chances likely dropping off fairly quickly farther to the north. Temperatures will also be dependent on the placement of the front but for now will range highs on Friday from the upper 70s north to the mid 80s south.

Pcpn chances will then continue at times through the weekend as the boundary lifts back to the north. There will likely be some diurnal enhancement to the the pcpn during the afternoon/evenings as we destabilize. Highs both days will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Quasi-zonal flow will persist into early next week. Will therefore linger some pcpn chances on through the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mostly VFR conditions through the first few hours of the TAF period, with mostly KCVG/KLUK/KILN and to a lesser extent, KDAY experiencing occasional MVFR ceilings/visibilities in thunderstorms. Introduced a TEMPO for thunderstorms at KILN/KDAY through 22-23z.

After thunderstorm chances wane diurnally, VFR conditions overnight, with less of a chance for KLUK BR with increasing clouds overnight.
Brought in an additional PROB30 for all locations on Wednesday with the shortwave traveling through the area, after 10-11z at KCVG/KLUK, and later for the other locations.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day through Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056- 065.
KY...None.
IN...None.