Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Circleville, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Weak cold front slowly moves through tonight, with very limited coverage in showers/storms today and Sunday.

2) Showers and possibly some thunderstorms expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.

2) Seasonably cool temperatures expected most of the week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Most of the shower activity has ended for the day, but an elongated cold front to our north will slowly work its way southward through our CWA tonight. Isolated convection expected to develop out ahead of this cold front later this evening, primarily north of I-70.
Majority of CAMs keep the activity north of our CWA However, keep in mind that an isolated shower may scoot across our northern counties later this evening into the early overnight hours.

Cold front is expected to have progressed just south of the Ohio River by daybreak Sunday. This will result in a dry Mother's Day forecast for most of our CWA The only caveat to this is that some hi-res models do indicate that the front will stall out just south of the Ohio River during the day. Along/south of the front, some isolated showers and perhaps a stray storm could still develop.
Shower/storm activity will likely be just south of our fa, but cannot rule out a stray shower developing in far southern OH and north-central KY during the afternoon/evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
A robust, H5 shortwave trough will swing down from Canada Monday night, increasing cloud coverage throughout the day Tuesday. There is likely enough forcing with this system to generate shower and thunderstorm activity late Tuesday into Wednesday. Latest model guidance suggests the best coverage in pcpn will be Tuesday night, with the system gradually moving east of our fa Wednesday. Not overly impressed with this system from a QPF standpoint or severe potential, but this will be our next best chance for widespread pcpn.

KEY MESSAGE 3)
Temperatures will creep to near normal for today, but the cold front moves through tonight and will usher in another shot of cooler/drier air. We won't observe a drastic dip in temperatures on Sunday given the limited H5 height falls, but temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s will still be below normal for most.

Highs in the 60s to near 70 are expected for the majority of the work week, which will be just below seasonal normals. A pattern shift late week will result in a warm-up for next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Broad mid level trof over the Great Lakes with a short wave pivoting thru the southern Great Lakes this evening. A surface cold front entering extreme northwest Ohio to slip south into central Ohio early in the overnight hours and then stalling out south of the Ohio River toward sunrise. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in the marginally unstable air ahead of the front. A few of these showers and storms will slip into ILN/s northern counties this evening but with loss of more favorable instability and forcing - they will be in a weakening state. It is not out of the question that KCMH or KLCK observes a shower or storm but coverage and probability is too low to mention in the TAF at this time.

Expect a period of mostly clear skies early this evening before the cold front progresses southward, resulting in low and mid level cloud development. Guidance suggests CIGs likely to remain VFR through the entire TAF period.

Southwesterly winds gusting up to 20-25 kts to diminish early this evening with wind speeds dropping below 10 kts. A wind shift to the north-northwest is expected overnight into Sunday morning with the frontal passage. Northwest winds around 10 kts can be expected Sunday afternoon.

OUTLOOK.. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.