Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Circleville, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A cold front currently stretching from Lake Michigan through Illinois will sag slowly southeast into our area through this afternoon. Widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front back across southern Illinois will advect east northeast along the front and overspread mainly northern portions of our area through mid morning. However, instability will be weakening across our area by that time with activity beginning to wane through late morning.

We will begin to destabilize again through early afternoon, along and just ahead of the front. This will likely lead to some redevelopment of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly for areas along and southeast of the I-71 corridor through the afternoon hours. With strong 0-3 and 0-6 km shear present, a few strong to severe storms will be possible along this corridor this afternoon, assuming we are able to destabilize enough. The main threat would be damaging winds and perhaps some hail in any stronger updrafts.

With the front draped across the region, we will end up with a decent temperature gradient across our area today with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 60s northwest to the lower 80s in our far southeast.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
The showers and any thunderstorms will begin to taper off heading into this evening as the front continues to sag southeast and we lose the diurnal instability. The front will stall out to our south later tonight into Sunday morning before beginning to lift back to the north as warm front Sunday afternoon as a developing surface low lifts north across the mid Mississippi Valley. This will combine with a strengthening low level jet ahead of the low to lead to scattered showers and chance for thunderstorms during the day on Sunday, especially across western portions of our area.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s north to the upper 50s south with highs on Sunday ranging from the low 60s in the north to the upper 70s in the south.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday. On Sunday night, a warm front east of the low lifts further north of the Ohio Valley which will help to reinforce the warm air in place. Shower and storms chances remain fairly minimal with lack of forcing for at least the first half of the night.
Forecast lows only drop to near 60.

On Monday, the low continues to progress northeast and an associated cold front works through the Ohio Valley during the day. Shower and storms chances increase ahead of the front. Currently, severe probabilities remain on the low side since only a low amount of instability is modeled in the warm sector. Additionally, shower/storm coverage is not expected to be overly high.

Slightly cooler and drier air returns behind the front for the middle of the week. Shower and storm chances return by the end of the week when another stalled boundary drifts into the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will gradually overspread the area from the west through the morning hours ahead of an approaching cold front. The shower activity will then become more scattered through the afternoon and into early evening as the front continues to sag slowly southeast across the area. VFR conditions should generally prevail ahead of the front, although some brief periods of MVFR vsbys and/or cigs will be possible with some of the showers. Behind the front, pcpn will taper off this evening with cigs becoming MVFR, with southwest winds becoming northwest.

OUTLOOK...Some MVFR CIGs are possible early Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.