Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ship Bottom, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:15PM Friday October 18, 2019 8:05 PM EDT (00:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:29PMMoonset 11:40AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201910191015;;913804 Fzus51 Kphi 182228 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 628 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-191015- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 628 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt early in the afternoon, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of rain.
Sun night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 628 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A large area of high pressure will gradually build east towards our region through Saturday before shifting offshore Saturday night. Low pressure is expected to progress from the carolinas on Saturday night to the waters off the middle atlantic coast on Sunday and Monday. A cold front is anticipated to approach from the west on Tuesday and it should pass through our region on Tuesday night. High pressure is expected to follow for Wednesday and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ship Bottom , NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181948
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
348 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Synopsis
A large area of high pressure will gradually build east towards our
region through Saturday before shifting off shore Saturday night.

Low pressure is expected to progress from the carolinas on Saturday
night to the waters off the middle atlantic coast on Sunday and
Monday. A cold front is anticipated to approach from the west on
Tuesday and it should pass through our region on Tuesday night. High
pressure is expected to follow for Wednesday and Thursday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Low pressure to our northeast will continue to pull further away
tonight, and a center of high pressure will move overhead. This will
cause the winds to drop off to very light levels tonight, and also
present a good setup for radiational cooling with clear skies in
place. The main forecast issue tonight will be the low temperatures
and associated frost and freeze concerns as many places will see
their coldest night of the season so far. Similar to previous
forecaster, am definitely leaning on the cold side of the guidance
envelope for tonight, and have generally lowered the lows another
degree or two. Because of this, have expanded the frost advisory in
a couple of areas, basically in an effort to surround the urban
corridor, which will be too warm for frost. In addition, have issued
a freeze warning for sussex county in northern new jersey. It will
probably be marginal on whether we see a freeze, but temperatures
often drop off very efficiently in these conditions, so felt the
warning was justified. One possible inhibiting factor to cooling is
that we do start to see WAA aloft tonight. However, with the high
moving overhead we should decouple after sunset and see a fairly
strong inversion start to develop at the surface, mitigating the
warming aloft.

Outside of the frost freeze concerns, it will be an uneventful
overnight across the area.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
A very nice day is expected for Saturday. The high pressure center
will remain almost directly overhead for most of the day before
starting to shift off to the east towards evening. Dew points remain
low and we start to pick up better WAA aloft so as we mix out we
should make a strong recovery after the morning's cold start. Most
areas should make it into the low 60s, with a few mid 60s possible.

Dry conditions expected with plenty of sunshine. Winds will also be
light, gradually turning more southwesterly during the
afternoon.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Overview: the main periods of concern in the long term are
Sunday when our area could be on the northwestern fringe of
the precipitation shield of nestor, and another period Tuesday
into Tuesday night with the approach of the next cold front.

Changes: no significant changes in the long term forecast with
this issuance.

Details:
Saturday night through Sunday... Tropical low pressure is
expected to move northeastward across the carolinas on Saturday
night, before passing off the coast near CAPE hatteras on
Sunday. The low is forecast to meander off the middle atlantic
coast into the early part of the new week. Our region should be
on the northwestern edge of the clouds and the precipitation
associated with the system from late Saturday night into Sunday.

We will continue to mention a chance of rain for northeastern
maryland, delaware and southern new jersey. While the NAM has a
track closer to the shore, the skill of the NAM is limited at
that range, so have gone with a non-nam blend through this
period. Consequently, do not expect any significant wind
concerns for our land zones with nestor.

Monday... Surface high pressure is expected to nose down from
the north and northeast for Monday as the clouds and rain push
out to sea.

Tuesday into Tuesday night... Strong low pressure is expected to
lift from the upper mississippi river valley and the western
great lakes on Monday into western ontario on Tuesday. The
feature is anticipated to pull a cold front through our region
on Tuesday night. Based on the expected upper level flow and the
position of the surface low, we are favoring the slower ecmwf
timing of the front. We will continue to mention a chance of
showers ahead of and with the boundary.

Wednesday and Thursday... It appears as though high pressure
will build from the southeastern states on Wednesday to the
waters off the middle atlantic coast on Thursday. We are
expecting dry weather both days.

Friday... Another cold front could approach the region at the end
of the week, but the timing of this is uncertain until we see
the timing of the mid week front.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... VFR. Northwest winds continuing but winds will diminish
early tonight to only around 5 kt and may go nearly calm or light
and variable in some areas later tonight. High confidence.

Saturday... VFR. Light westerly or northwesterly winds in the
morning turning to the southwest in the afternoon, but speeds
remaining light at only around 5 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night... StartingVFR conditions, and should stayVFR for
most TAF sites. At kilg and kmiv especially, conditions could lower
to MVFR or ifr toward morning. South to east wind 6 knots or less.

High confidence on most aspects except timing of MVFR or lower
conditions at kilg and kmiv.

Sunday... MVFR or even ifr conditions are possible, especially for
the delaware valley sites (kphl, kilg, kpne, and kttn) and the
coastal sites (kmiv and kacy) with rain and low ceilings. Moderate
confidence we will see a period of MVFR or lower at this sites, but
low confidence on the timing as it isn't likely to stick around all
day. East wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast. At kmiv and kacy,
higher winds, especially in the afternoon are possible; wind speeds
of 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt possible.

Sunday night... Lingering low clouds should clear out early in the
evening leading to mostly VFR conditions. Northeast wind 5 to 10
knots, becoming north. High confidence
Monday...VFR conditions expected. Northeast to east wind 5 to 10
knots. High confidence.

Monday night... StartingVFR, but conditions could lower to MVFR or
even ifr with rain showers, primarily at kabe and krdg late in the
night. East to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Low confidence.

Tuesday... MVFR or even ifr conditions are likely to spread across
the region through the day with periods of rain showers. High
confidence on conditions belowVFR, but low confidence on the timing
of flight category changes. Southeast to south wind around 10 knots.

Tuesday night... Starting off as MVFR or ifr, but conditions should
quickly improve toVFR behind a cold front which will be crossing
the region overnight. Winds starting southerly 5 to 10 kt, but will
have an abrupt shift to northwesterly with the cold front. Moderate
confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on the timing.

Wednesday... MostlyVFR conditions likely. Westerly winds of 5 to 15
kt. Moderate confidence.

Marine
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria through
Saturday. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt tonight gradually becoming
southwest on Saturday and decreasing. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday morning... Winds and seas should stay
below SCA criteria.

Sunday afternoon through Monday morning... East and northeast wind
gusts above 25 kt are likely. Gusts may get close to gale force, but
expect conditions to stay just below gale criteria at this time.

Waves are expected to build to 4 to 7 feet on our ocean waters.

Monday afternoon and Monday night... While wind gusts should drop
below 25 knots, waves on our ocean waters are forecast to remain in
the 4 to 6 foot range.

Tuesday... A southeast to south wind may gust in excess of 25 knots.

Waves on our ocean waters should be around 5 to 6 feet.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... An abrupt shift to northwesterly and
westerly winds with gusts above 25 kt is likely Tuesday night
continuing into Wednesday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt Saturday for paz060>062-
101>103-105.

Nj... Frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt Saturday for njz007>010-
012-013-019>022-027.

Freeze warning from 2 am to 9 am edt Saturday for njz001.

De... None.

Md... Frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt Saturday for mdz008.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... O'brien
short term... O'brien
long term... Iovino johnson
aviation... Johnson o'brien
marine... Johnson o'brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 16 mi96 min WNW 1 53°F 1015 hPa42°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi48 min 61°F1015 hPa
44091 24 mi36 min 64°F4 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi54 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 53°F 59°F1014.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi90 min Calm G 1 55°F 60°F1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ24 mi12 minN 010.00 miFair45°F37°F74%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE5SE8SE9SE12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6CalmNW4NW5N5NE6N74Calm3SE6SE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE4NE4NE3N3CalmCalmCalm--CalmNW4W5SW7W7NW6W10
G17
W9W7SW4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Manahawkin Creek, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey
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Manahawkin Creek
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Fri -- 01:49 AM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:52 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:52 PM EDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:40 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.21.110.80.50.30.20.10.30.61.11.31.41.31.210.70.50.30.20.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:22 AM EDT     -2.00 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:54 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:42 AM EDT     2.56 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:07 PM EDT     -2.38 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:23 PM EDT     1.96 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.5-0.4-1.2-1.7-2-1.9-1.20.11.52.42.51.90.8-0.3-1.2-1.8-2.2-2.4-2.1-1.20.11.31.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.