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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 402 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am est this morning...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. S swell around 2 ft at 6 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. S swell around 2 ft at 6 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 5 seconds, becoming ne around 2 ft at 6 seconds in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. N swell 2 to 3 ft at 5 seconds.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. N swell 2 to 4 ft at 4 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming w.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt.

ANZ400 402 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure across new england will move offshore today. High pressure builds in for tonight and remains through Tuesday. A weak system moves to the south Wednesday. More high pressure arrives for the end of the week and into Saturday. A deep low pressure system may move west of the region Sunday.

FXUS61 KPHI 040853 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 353 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure across New England will move offshore today. High pressure builds in for tonight and remains through Tuesday. A weak system moves to the south Wednesday. More high pressure arrives for the end of the week and into Saturday. A deep low pressure system may move west of the region Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
While there may be a few remnant patches of shallow valley fog early this morning, mainly across northern NJ around the Raritan and Passaic Rivers, the vast majority of the region is finally fog- free, as drier air filters in on a light westerly breeze. Westerly winds are stronger above the boundary layer, with substantially colder and drier air flowing in aloft as well. That has helped skies to partially clear. There is still a band of high clouds southeast of I-95 in association with the left- exit region of a strong upper- level jet streak. That will shift offshore early this morning, allowing for some sunshine outside of areas near the Poconos, where some stratocumulus will linger.

That sunshine will be short-lived though, as the next mid/upper- level trough approaches. That shortwave will track from the Ohio Valley this morning and reach the Mid-Atlantic by this evening, with fairly extensive mid-level clouds covering all but southern Delaware up to perhaps Cape May by this afternoon. Additionally, some deeper low to mid-level moisture farther north with colder air advecting in on west-northwest winds may bring some stratocumulus farther southeast from the Appalachians toward the Fall Line. HRRR suggests that maybe a brief rain or snow (or graupel) shower may reach Carbon/Monroe/Sussex NJ vicinity late this afternoon or early this evening. That probably won't amount to 'measurable' precipitation, and is not mentioned in the forecast, but don't be surprised up there. Elsewhere, our region will see a dry day, with highs only recovering into the upper 40s northwest of the urban corridor, even after starting out near 40 this morning. That will be accompanied by an occasionally gusty westerly breeze.

In the wake of the trough, skies will clear tonight outside of the Poconos and perhaps the Lehigh Valley vicinity. The drier air and breeze along with lower dewpoints advecting in today will help limit dry the ground and boundary layer moisture. Still, expect some valleys in southeastern PA and north/central NJ, as well as the Pine Barrens and interior Delmarva to see some patchy fog overnight toward Tuesday morning. Lows should drop near or below freezing outside of Philly and the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A broad H5 trough will settle across our area Tue/Wed before moving away later this week. This will bring a return to more seasonable temperatures for early December. Highs both days will be a couple degrees below normal with low/mid 40s for most areas (30s for the southern Poconos and north NJ). Lows will favor the 30s Tue night and 20s Wed night.

While high pressure will be across the area much of the time, a weak upper feature will accompany the upper trough moving just south of the area Tue night/Wed morning. We have some slight chance pops for Delmarva/south NJ/metro Philadelphia for those periods. Depending on when the precip occurs, light rain or light snow could be the ptype.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The upper pattern will start the long term with a subtle trough exiting to the NE while a ridge begins to build over the Middle Atlantic.
This ridge continues to build before moving away Saturday. Another trough strengthens and heads up the Ohio Valley towards the end of next weekend. These features will overall provide a dry forecast for Thu/Fri/Sat but then rains will arrive Sat night and remain into Sunday. Although it's still several days away, most op models are showing a potent surface low moving from the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes next weekend. This could bring showery and breezy conditions ahead of the cold front late next weekend.

Temperatures will continue (from the short term) to be below normal with Thursday (likely) being the coldest day of the week. After that, warm advection will kick in with slightly above normal temps for Friday and much above normal readings for next weekend. Highs in the upper 50s/low 60s could be around for next weekend if a deep southerly flow develops over the region.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Some broken CIGs around 040 spreading down from the Appalachians may reach ABE/RDG or even TTN this afternoon, otherwise ceilings will be above 10K ft. Winds will pick up from the west this afternoon with gusts 18-20 kt possible at times.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. Skies will clear, and winds will ease to around 5 kt, but calmer in sheltered areas. That may allow some patchy fog to develop. Think that will avoid most TAF sites, but the will put MVFR VSBY in the usual suspects MIV, RDG and TTN.

Outlook...
Tue... VFR expected.

Tue night/Wed... Mostly VFR. Clouds and a few light showers possible for Delaware and srn NJ.

Wed night/Thu/Fri.... VFR expected.

MARINE
Drier air filtering in on increasing westerly winds will continue to clear out any lingering mist or light fog on our coastal waters early this morning. While seas have dropped to around 4 ft over most of our ocean zones, those winds have increased with gusts 20-25 kt through about 9 AM. A Small Craft Advisory north of Cape Henlopen covers that threat. For the rest of today, westerly winds will be around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Tonight winds pick up slightly once again to 15 to 20 kt. Another short- lived marginal SCA may be issued if gusts to 25 kt develop. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Outlook

Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for Tue/Tue night.
After that, gusty N to NW winds will be low-end SCA levels for Wed/Wed night. A return to sub-SCA is expected Thu and into Fri.
Fair weather thru the period, except for a few scattered showers Tue night into Wed.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow is causing some tidal piling to occur across the region. As a result, back bays are currently seeing some spotty minor coastal flooding. Back bays may be slow to drain going forwards; some minor coastal flooding during the next two high tide cycles remains possible, particularly for back bays.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ450>454.

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Manahawkin Creek
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Mon -- 03:34 AM EST     1.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:13 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:25 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:33 PM EST     1.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:11 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Manahawkin Creek, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey, Tide feet

Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:37 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:32 AM EST     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:50 AM EST     1.59 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:25 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:58 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:15 PM EST     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:13 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current, knots

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