Sunday, July25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beach Haven West, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:18PM Sunday July 25, 2021 1:03 PM EDT (17:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 7:14AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1003 Am Edt Sun Jul 25 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers late this morning. A slight chance of tstms late. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of tstms until early morning, then a chance of showers late. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers early in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the late morning and early afternoon. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Light swell in the evening.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1003 Am Edt Sun Jul 25 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will slip through our region tonight into tomorrow. High pressure briefly builds in Monday night into Tuesday. A weak cold front should approach the region Tuesday night. A stronger cold front may arrive in our region Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beach Haven West, NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 251034 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 634 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will slip through our region tonight into tomorrow. High pressure briefly builds in Monday night into Tuesday. A weak cold front should approach the region Tuesday night. A stronger cold front may arrive in our region Thursday into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A warm front is continuing to work its way through our region this morning, bringing a return to muggy air after several drier days. The front has been helping produce scattered showers and a couple of brief heavier downpours overnight. Most of this activity is now offshore, but an isolated shower will remain possible through mid- morning.

Given the timing of frontal features, a good portion of the day will remain dry with variable cloud cover. Highs in the mid to upper 80s, with heat index values in the low 90s, are anticipated as southwest winds continue to draw in warmer air. Speaking of winds, they will be quite gusty at the coast thanks to a stronger pressure gradient just offshore. Some gusts around 30 mph are possible near the beaches, with a steady but lighter breeze for inland areas.

By later afternoon and evening, the focus turns to convective potential. Little change regarding the thinking for this portion of the forecast. Overall, not a dynamically impressive event. Forcing will mainly come in the form of a weak pre-frontal surface trough, with the cold front itself slowly approaching by tonight. The warm and humid air mass will allow moderate instability to build, with SB CAPE around 2000 J/kg. However, mid-level lapse rates are poor, and the mid-levels are also quite dry. This will contribute to skinny CAPE profiles which are often indicators of under-performing severe weather events in the absence of better shear or forcing. Bulk shear of around 25 kt is anticipated, with lackluster mid-level flow preventing higher values. Thinking scattered convection, possibly in the form of a broken line or lines, will move through from northwest to southeast during the mid afternoon to mid evening hours, around 3PM to 10PM. The timing has trended a little bit faster. PoPs for the afternoon and evening are mostly in the 40 to 60% range, lower for the far southeastern zones. Damaging wind will be the main threat with any stronger storms, but again with the skinny CAPE, updraft behavior may be rather lethargic and limit that potential. With SRH still looking decent, still can't completely rule out a weak tornado as well. The hydro/heavy rain threat looks close to negligible, but some locally heavy downpours are possible, which could cause some nuisance/poor drainage flooding should they impact any urban areas.

The cold front itself, which is weak and somewhat diffuse, will move through most of the region overnight. That and the loss of daytime heating will bring an end to any showers and storms by around midnight. With the front still not making it totally offshore, it will remain warm and muggy through the night, with lows on either side of 70. Patchy fog is possible mainly to the northwest, but is unlikely to be too dense or widespread. Some drier air with lower dew points should start to drain into northwestern areas by later in the night as the boundary slowly sags southeast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Monday: At first, focus is on the cold front which will initially be entering our region tonight, could still be lingering over the far southern NJ coastal plains and central Delmarva tomorrow. If this front stays stalled over or near the region through the day, it could serve as a focus for surface confluence. Thus, have the highest chances for showers and storms in southeastern NJ and Delmarva. Some model soundings show substantial instability along and south of the front by the afternoon, though bulk shear values should be limited. This could be a limiting factor for organized and longer lived convection. However, can't rule out gusty winds with pulse storms. The front should sink south through the later half of the day, so expect showers and storms to move out of our region by the evening.

Despite most of our region being behind the cold front through the day, it will still be quite warm on Monday, with highest in the 80s and lower 90s. The front should make a big difference in the humidity however, as dewpoints behind the front should be in the lower 60s, while just ahead of the front, dewpoints in the lower 70s are possible.

Monday night into Tuesday night: Surface high pressure briefly builds into the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Then attention turns to a second cold front Tuesday night. As mentioned by the previous shift, there is still some question as to if this front will still be intact to reach our region. It may dissipate to our northwest. Regardless, the remnant surface boundary, and a mid level short wave trough could result in some showers and thunderstorms, mostly north of the I-78 corridor, Tuesday night. Temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to Monday, with highs in the 80s and lower 90s, though by Tuesday, almost all of the region (except right along the coast) should have dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Overview: The main period to watch in the long term is Thursday into Friday when another cold front could cross through the region.

Details: Wednesday . expect mostly dry conditions, though there is a chance for isolated showers and storms as a mid level short wave trough digs southeast over the region.

Thursday and Friday . Another mid level short wave trough and a potentially stronger cold front approach the region late in the week. These northwesterly flow regimes are notoriously difficult to model, especially timing, of these features this far out. However, many of the operational models showed relatively good agreement that this would be in the late Thursday to Friday morning time frame. Some models, most notably the GFS, show a very progressive (for late July standards) cold front, with the front moving from Central PA/NY to off our coast in about 12 hours. Based on recent model biases, and the time of year, that seems too fast. So, have kept a slight chance of showers into the day on Friday.

Saturday . this period still looks relatively quiet as non of the major operational models depict any short wave troughs over our region once the earlier cold front clears our region.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z . Mainly VFR with BKN to OVC CIGs from 4000 to 8000 ft. Some areas of MVFR are possible especially north of PHL. Scattered rain showers are likely to be around several of the terminals but unlikely to bring much if any in the way of CIG or VSBY restrictions. South-southwest wind 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Today . Mainly VFR. However, some MVFR is possible through 15z especially north of PHL, with some lingering showers possible through mid-morning. In addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms could bring localized restrictions late this afternoon and evening, especially along and northwest of I-95. Southwest winds around 10 kt with gusts close to 20 kt, a bit higher along the coast. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . Mainly VFR. Lingering showers and tstms are possible through about 05z mainly along and east of I-95. Also cannot rule out patchy fog formation especially northwest of I-95, but not thinking this will be too widespread. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 kt early decreasing and generally becoming light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Monday . Mostly VFR conditions are expected. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible, primarily at KMIV and KACY, though also can't be ruled out as far northwest as KILG, KPHL, KPNE, and KTTN. If any showers or storms move over a TAF site, brief MVFR conditions are possible. Northwesterly winds of 5 to 10 kt, except at KMIV and KACY which may keep southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 kt for much of the morning before gradually shifting to westerly. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence that storms will affect any TAF site.

Monday night through Tuesday night . VFR conditions are expected. Showers and thunderstorms should stay north of the TAF sites. Winds should mostly be light through the period, though direction will vary between northwesterly and southwesterly. The exception is at KACY where a Tuesday afternoon sea breeze could result in southerly winds of 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday . Mostly VFR conditions expected. There is a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms along and northwest of the Delaware Valley, if any of these storms move over a TAF site, brief MVFR conditions are possible. Winds mostly light and variable through the period. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . Predominantly VFR conditions, though there is an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region. MVFR and even brief IFR conditions will be possible with storms. southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence.

MARINE. Through tonight . A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware. It will be a fairly rough day on the water, with southwest winds gusting 25 to 30 kt and short period seas building to 4 to 6 ft. Winds and seas will both gradually subside later tonight. On Delaware Bay, wind gusts should mostly remain 20 kt or less, so no advisory has been issued there.

Outlook .

Monday through Thursday . Once seas subside below 5 feet on Monday morning, winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through the remainder of the period.

Rip Currents .

Increasing southwest winds and higher seas will result in a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents along the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware today.

It appears as though wind speeds and wave heights will diminish for Monday, and the risk should return to low at that time.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Johnson Near Term . O'Brien Short Term . Johnson Long Term . Johnson Aviation . Johnson/O'Brien Marine . Johnson/O'Brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 15 mi93 min Calm 78°F 1015 hPa71°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi45 min 74°F 74°F1014.8 hPa
44091 25 mi37 min 74°F6 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 44 mi45 min SW 6 G 11 79°F 75°F1013.3 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi87 min WSW 8.9 G 12 78°F 75°F1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi69 minSSW 13 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F69°F67%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--N6--5--------------Calm----------Calm------Calm--NE5
1 day ago----------------------SW3--Calm------------------NW8
2 days agoCalmCalm--N8--------Calm------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Manahawkin Creek, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey
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Manahawkin Creek
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Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:31 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:26 PM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.61.310.70.30-0.1-0.10.20.71.11.31.31.210.70.40.20-00.30.81.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:30 AM EDT     -3.44 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:55 AM EDT     2.43 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:43 PM EDT     -2.73 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:07 PM EDT     3.08 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-1.5-2.5-3.3-3.3-2.4-0.80.822.421.20.1-0.9-1.8-2.5-2.7-1.9-0.51.12.53.12.71.8

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