Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beach Haven West, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:11PM Monday January 27, 2020 8:29 PM EST (01:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:59AMMoonset 8:55PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 630 Pm Est Mon Jan 27 2020
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed night..N winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of rain or snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ400 630 Pm Est Mon Jan 27 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure over the gulf of saint lawrence will slowly shift eastward through tonight. A weak cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will build into the region for the middle and latter portion of the work week. Coastal low pressure may affect the area over the weekend followed by high pressure likely returning for early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beach Haven West, NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 272005 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 305 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence will slowly shift eastward through tonight. A weak cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will build into the region for the middle and latter portion of the work week. Coastal low pressure may affect the area over the weekend followed by high pressure likely returning for early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A mid level low will remain over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence tonight. The low was pulling a short wave trough over our region this afternoon, with another one expected to follow this evening.

The initial short wave was enhancing our cloud cover. Also, it was producing some sprinkles in northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey. There were scattered flurries in the elevated terrain of the Pocono Region and far northern New Jersey.

We are anticipating that the clouds will linger into this evening, until the second short wave passes. The cloud cover should be on the decrease after that time.

A west wind around 10 to 15 mph into early evening should diminish to 5 to 10 mph for tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the middle 20s to the lower 30s in eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and northeastern Maryland.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/. We are expecting subtle mid level ridging overhead for Tuesday morning before another short wave trough begins to approach from the northwest during the afternoon. As a result, we are anticipating generally scattered cloud cover to start the day with an increase in stratocumulus in the afternoon, especially over eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.

A northwest wind is forecast to increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Highs should be in the lower to middle 40s, with readings not getting above the 30s in the elevated terrain of the Pocono Region and far northern New Jersey.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/.

Tuesday night through Thursday .

Tranquil, precipitation free weather expected for this part of the forecast as high pressure will be gradually building in from the north. Forecast models in good agreement on this. Temperatures will also be right around average for this time of year with both Wednesday and Thursday featuring a good deal of sunshine. High temperatures both days look to be in the 30s to low 40s.

Thursday night through Monday .

The main story for this part of the forecast continues to be the potential storm system for the weekend. There continues to be both inter and intra model variability on how this will play out but the overall idea from recent runs of the deterministic models is for full phasing of upper energy from the northern and southern streams not to occur which would result in a weaker system tracking farther east. However this could still change. In the meantime, high pressure centered over the region continues to dominate through Thursday night. The resulting clear skies and light winds should yield good radiational cooling conditions so forecast lows are a little below model consensus. Generally expect lows by Friday morning ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s.

Forecast uncertainty starts to increase heading into Friday. In the big picture, upper level pattern will be becoming more amplified with an upper level trough setting up centered from the Great Lakes south to the Gulf coast. There will be numerous shortwaves rotating through this upper level trough and an incipient low pressure system near the eastern Gulf. An inverted trough may extend north from this towards the mid Altantic. How this all jells together and whether it brings the mid Atlantic a storm system for next weekend is still very uncertain as the upper level energy that will come into play here is still over the Pacific. As early as Friday though there could be a few showers around due to the aformentioned inverted trough but this should be mainly near the coast if it occurs at all.

As already mentioned, lots of uncertainty in the forecast for next weekend. Deterministic GEM, GFS, EC currently favoring low pressure to move north and east off the coast with the brunt of the system staying out to sea as low tracks S/E of the 40/70 point lat/lon point. Some differences in timing though with the GFS showing the system's closest pass to the region during the day Saturday while the EC and GEM are about 12 hours slower. Also worth noting, several of the 0z GFS ensemble perturbations continue to show a much stronger storm system moving north along the coast or even inland so this scenario is still possible. So this all said, we continue to forecast chance POPs over the weekend with precip type tending to favor rain or at least a mix for areas near and S/E of the I-95 corridor due to lack of antecedent cold air mass.

Indications at this point are for high pressure to return early next week.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Into this evening . VFR ceilings. West northwest wind around 10 knots gusting to 15 to 20 knots. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR with decreasing clouds. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Tuesday . VFR with an increase in cloud cover. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots gusting near 20 knots.

Outlook .

Tuesday night-Wednesday night . VFR with NW winds generally 5-10 knots though Wednesday. Winds turning light northerly on Wednesday night. High confidence.

Thursday-Thursday night . VFR. Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt on Thursday becoming light and variable Thursday night. High confidence.

Friday . Mainly VFR, but MVFR is possible especially southeast of PHL and especially later in the day due to possible rain showers and low stratus. Winds light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Friday night - Saturday . Restrictions possible, mainly for I-95 TAF sites and points south and east due to potential coastal system. Low confidence.

MARINE. A west to northwest flow will continue over the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for tonight and Tuesday. Speeds are expected to favor the 10 to 20 knot range. However, there may be some 25 knot wind gusts from late tonight into Tuesday morning in the southern part of our marine area in the wake of a mid level trough. As a result, we will issue a Small Craft Advisory for the period from midnight until noon on Tuesday. It will cover our coastal waters from the Atlantic City area southward and the lower part of Delaware Bay.

Outlook .

Tuesday night-Friday . Quiet conditions expected on the waters through this period with sub SCA conditions expected. NW winds could gust to 20 knots Tuesday night into early Wednesday with winds shifting to NE for Wednesday night and Thursday.

Friday night - Saturday . Sub SCA conditions favored but if a coastal system tracks close enough to the waters SCA winds/seas are possible.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.



Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . Iovino Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . Fitzsimmons/Iovino Marine . Fitzsimmons/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 15 mi60 min W 1.9 41°F 1008 hPa33°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi60 min 42°F 42°F1008.3 hPa
44091 25 mi60 min 46°F3 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 44 mi60 min 41°F 38°F1008 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi54 min 42°F 37°F1007.3 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi94 minW 510.00 miOvercast42°F30°F65%1007.9 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi36 minW 510.00 miOvercast43°F30°F63%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6CalmSW3W4W6CalmSW3W3SW3SW6SW5SW7SW7SW8SW11W12W10W12W14
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Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, 1 n.mi. above entrance, New Jersey
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:54 AM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:19 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:55 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.41.10.80.50.20-00.30.81.31.61.71.61.410.70.30-0.1-00.40.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:13 AM EST     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:47 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:36 AM EST     2.40 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:43 PM EST     -2.57 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:54 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:08 PM EST     1.82 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-1.1-1.7-2.1-1.9-10.31.42.22.31.80.9-0.1-1-1.8-2.4-2.5-2-0.90.31.31.81.60.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.