Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beach Haven West, NJ

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Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:20PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 9:58 AM EDT (13:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:58AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201907240115;;509237 Fzus51 Kphi 231323 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 923 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-240115- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 923 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until noon edt today...
Rest of today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers likely.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Wed night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 923 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will continue to slowly shift offshore through today. By Wednesday, a large area of high pressure is expected to build towards our region. This high will remain near our region through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beach Haven West, NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231331
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
931 am edt Tue jul 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front over our region will shift off shore later today.

By Wednesday, a large area of high pressure is expected to build
towards our region. This high will remain near our region
through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
930 am update... Low pressure has moved off to the east over
long island. However its associated cold front will continue to
linger off the coast... Only slowly drifting east with time as sw
flow aloft continues due to upper trough still over the great
lakes. As a result, expect periods of mostly light rain showers
to continue moving northeast up the coast through today and
affecting areas mainly near and inside of the i-95 corridor.

Pops were generally adjusted up slightly based on this trend.

Expect rain should be mainly done by mid afternoon or so along
the i-95 corridor but may linger into tonight along the coast as
a final wave moves through.

Previous discussion: flash flood watch has been cancelled with
this update. Latest high res guidance shows that the heaviest
rain should be done in our area. Additionally, with the front
now on the coastal plains, and quickly sinking southeast, it
will be difficult to see much convection, and thus convective
heavy rain rates.

Behind the front we are already seeing dry and cold air
advection (most notably with dew points below 70 as far east as
the western suburbs). This front will continue to progress
through the morning, and should be off shore by late this
morning. Forecast highs today are close to what the lows were
just a few days ago! Highs are expected to be in the 70s for the
entire region.

Due to the front lingering near the region, and the mid and
upper level short wave trough still west of our region, we will
continue to see a few rounds of rain through the day. However,
rounds of rain today are not expected to be nearly as impactful
as what we saw last evening. For one thing, instability will be
very limited (so much so, that it appears that only DELMARVA and
the coastal plains of nj will have a chance for thunderstorms -
for the rest of the area, it should be mostly showers).

Additionally, there will be dry air advection, not just at the
surface behind the front, but also in the mid levels.

Consequently, with a decreasing precipitable water value, the
threat for heavy rain will decrease as well.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
One last round of showers is possible overnight, primarily for
coastal locations, as the mid and upper level short wave trough
shifts further southeast. With dry air advection continuing, the
heavy rain threat should be minimal by this evening.

Temperatures will be near normal overnight, but in comparison to
overnight lows the last several days, it may feel a bit cool!
lows should range from the mid 50s to mid 60s across the area.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Overview...

an extended stretch of mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected
for most of this week and into the weekend. At upper levels, a
lingering trough will remain over the east from Wednesday into
Thursday. This trough will weaken and shift southward through the
week as a ridge moves out of the great lakes and builds into
southern canada and new england. At the surface, a broad region of
high pressure will exist downstream the ridge and upstream the
trough. This high will start the midweek period over the midwest,
and as the upper level features slowly shift, the high will
gradually make its way eastward. It will not crest over our region
until the weekend. Even by early next week, we will probably
continue to feel the influence of this high. The resulting sensible
weather is something we really have not seen much of this year:
several consecutive days (at least) of dry and quiet weather.

Temperatures also look near normal for this period, as we are
between cooler than normal air to the south associated with the
lingering trough, and much warmer than normal air that will
build in with the ridge well to our north.

Dailies...

Wednesday... Our early week frontal system will still be departing
on Wednesday, and it looks like considerable cloud cover and
possibly some light showers may linger towards the coast especially
in the morning. As a wave of low pressure moves offshore, some
guidance is even hinting at an inverted-trough like feature which
could throw some light showers back into coastal nj. However, the
trend for the day will be clearing skies and drier weather,
especially to the west. Temperatures only getting into the low 80s
in most areas with the cooler air behind the front.

Wednesday night-Saturday... Dry and quiet. A very gradual warming
trend in 850mb temperatures should yield a slow warming trend at the
surface, with each day generally a degree or two warmer than the
previous but no warmer than the upper 80s by Saturday. Dew points
should remain comfortable also, with those also showing just a slow
uptrend heading towards the weekend but remaining well away from
the oppressive territory we have seen.

Sunday-Monday... Temperatures should continue coming up slowly
during this period, with some 90s potentially returning to the
picture. Humidity will also continue to creep up, but . A weak
frontal system may approach on Sunday, with possibly some showers up
north. However, high pressure still looks to be the dominant feature
into early next week, and we will likely have to wait until later in
the week to see any more robust frontal systems.

Aviation 14z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MostlyVFR conditions are expected (guidance continues
to show some MVFR or even ifr ceilings over the region, but that
has yet to develop, and the window for that is closing). There
may be some brief MVFR conditions as periods of light rain are
possible. Northwesterly winds just behind the cold front,
becoming light and variable late today.

Tuesday night... MostlyVFR conditions are expected, with light
and variable winds.

Outlook...

Wednesday... MainlyVFR, except MVFR possible at least through the
morning at miv and acy. Winds north-northeast at 5 to 10 kt.

Wednesday night-Saturday... An extended period of quiet,VFR
conditions is expected. Winds mainly light and variable, favoring
light easterly flow if anything.

Marine
Small craft advisory conditions on all the waters are expected
to continue through the morning. By this afternoon, expect winds
and seas on all the waters to be below SCA criteria.

Outlook...

Wednesday-Saturday... Winds and seas are expected to remain below
sca criteria. 3 to 4 foot seas Wednesday diminish to mainly 2 to 3
feet for the remainder of the period.

Rip currents...

winds will be shifting to the nw-n as the cold front passes over
the coast this morning. The resulting risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents will be low across the new jersey
shore and delaware beaches.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt today for anz430-431-
450>455.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... Fitzsimmons johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... O'brien
aviation... Johnson o'brien staarmann
marine... Johnson o'brien


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 15 mi88 min W 7 56°F 1010 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi58 min 71°F 64°F1010.6 hPa (+3.8)
44091 25 mi58 min 78°F8 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 44 mi58 min NNW 8.9 G 11 71°F 84°F1010.4 hPa (+3.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi82 min WNW 2.9 G 6 69°F 84°F1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi62 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast70°F0°F%1010.2 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi64 minWNW 1110.00 miOvercast71°F66°F87%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5S8SE8SW14
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W7SW4CalmCalmS3SW3W5S4SW8NE5S6CalmNW14NW10NW10
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W7W11W11SW5W8SW4SW5W4N9NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW7W3Calm
2 days ago4W8W7SW7SW73W6W12SW8SW9SW5SW3SW5SW4SW3SW4W4SW6W4SW4CalmW6W9NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, 1 n.mi. above entrance, New Jersey
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:11 AM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:21 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:47 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:46 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.21.51.61.61.41.10.80.50.30.20.30.50.91.31.51.51.51.210.70.60.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:01 AM EDT     -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:23 PM EDT     1.74 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:31 PM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.50.7-0.1-0.9-1.5-1.8-2-1.7-0.80.31.21.71.610.3-0.4-1-1.4-1.6-1.6-1-00.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.