Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Barnegat Light, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Mainly dry today outside of some morning showers over Delmarva and South Jersey. Winds, while not nearly as strong as yesterday, will be a bit gusty mainly in the afternoon out of the northwest.

2. Tranquil and pleasant this weekend.

3. A system moves through sometime Monday into Monday Night, likely bringing unsettled weather to the area.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry today outside of some morning showers over Delmarva and South Jersey. Winds, while not nearly as strong as yesterday, will be a bit gusty mainly in the afternoon out of the northwest.

An area of low pressure is sliding by to our south this morning.
It is just close enough to graze our area with some showers over Delmarva and South Jersey. Scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will continue through the late morning, though no significant impacts are expected. Things should be completely dry by the afternoon.

A secondary cold front passes later this morning, with winds increasing in the wake of the front. It won't be nearly as breezy compared to yesterday but gusts this afternoon will be around 20-25 MPH with peak gusts around 30 MPH. Gusts quickly diminish around sunset. Temperatures get into the upper 70s/low 80s with skies clearing out once the front passes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Tranquil and pleasant this weekend.

The cold front passing later today will usher in a dry airmass and lower humidity significantly. High pressure passes to our west and then dives to our south, but should remain in control through the weekend. The result should be two days of mostly sunny skies, low humidity, and overall pleasant weather for any outdoor activities. Temperatures should be rather seasonable in the low to mid 80s.

A lingering pressure gradient overhead could result in a brief period of breezy winds on Saturday, with gusts around 20-25 MPH, though that should be the only thing of note weather-wise this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A system moves through sometime Monday into Monday Night, likely bringing widespread rainfall to the area.

Medium range guidance continues to hint at a stretch of unsettled weather to start next week. The main question will be the track of the low pressure as it moves through the region, which will have notable consequence in specific impacts.

The main takeaway though is that Monday is currently looking wet, with some thunderstorms likely mixed in as the area of low pressure moves through, mainly in the afternoon. Consensus guidance already shows PWAT values (1.75- 2.00") near the climatological maxima, setting up the risk for heavy rainfall.
NBM Probability of 1" or more from this system has around 50-75% from Philadelphia on north and around a 20-50% south of Philadelphia. Probability of 2" or more is 30-40% north of I-78, with less than a 25% chance south of that mark. Thinking the heavy rain aspect of this system will bring more impacts compared to the severe side of things but things could change depending on the track of the surface low. We are still in a region-wide drought so that could mitigate the flood threat some.

Still a lot of uncertainty remains, but the overarching synoptic setup will be favorable for an impactful system.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...Primarily VFR. Some showers possible (25-40%) at KACY/KMIV later this morning but restrictions unlikely.
West/northwest winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Today...Primarily VFR. Chance of showers (20-40%) at KACY/KMIV through about 15z though conditions should stay VFR. No chance of showers at other terminals. Winds start out of the west/northwest around 10 kt, increasing to around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt for the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds diminish quickly around/just after 00z.
West/northwest winds 5-10 kt expected. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR. West/northwest wind gusts around 20 to 25 kt

Saturday Night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday Night...Primarily VFR. Some showers possible late (30-40% chance).

Monday through Monday Night...Sub-VFR conditions expected with widespread showers and some scattered to isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

MARINE
The Small Craft Advisory has expired. Sub-SCA conditions expected through Saturday with west/northwest winds around 10 to 20 kt and seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...No marine headlines expected.

Monday through Monday Night...SCA conditions expected (80-90%)
with southerly wind gusts increasing to around 30 kt with seas 4 to 8 feet.

Tuesday...SCA conditions could linger, but more tranquil weather takes over.

Rip Currents...

For today, west-southwesterly winds will increase to around 10 to 20 MPH. There will be a south/southeasterly swell of 3 to 5 feet at around 7 seconds. Breaking wave heights of 2 to 3 feet are anticipated. Have opted for a MODERATE risk for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware beaches for the development of dangerous rip currents, where flow is more offshore.

For Saturday, westerly winds around 10-15 mph are expected.
However, the onshore swells begin to weaken, decreasing to around 2 to 4 at around a 7 second period. Breaking waves in the surf zone should be around 2 feet or less as a result.
Therefore, a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is forecast for all beaches on Saturday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.