Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Barnegat Light, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Following a chilly and frosty start this morning, seasonable temperatures will return along with continuing dry conditions through tonight. High pressure centered to our west across the Appalachians will gradually shift south into the Southeast as the day progresses. A dry cold front will approach from the eastern Great Lakes overnight.

Areas of frost are expected to develop through daybreak, especially across suburban and rural areas of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, with some patchy frost possible across interior portions of Delmarva. Low temperatures will range from the mid 30s to near 40 degrees (low to mid 40s in the Philly urban area and along the immediate coast). The Frost Advisory remains in effect as previously issued through 9 AM.

Cessation of cold advection will lead to airmass modification today.
Temperatures will thus rebound toward normal, with high temperatures this afternoon reaching the mid to upper 60s in most areas. Perhaps a few spots reaching right at 70 degrees. Skies will remain sunny and a west to northwest breeze near 10-15 mph can be expected.

For tonight, a west to southwest pressure gradient in place with the approaching cold front will not support substantial radiational cooling. Winds will remain elevated near 5-10 mph much of the night.
Resulting low temperatures will be near 50 degrees across the entire area under mostly clear skies.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will begin moving off the coast of the Southeast US on Saturday into Saturday night. At the same time, a cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday but will be dying out as it crosses and eventually stalls over our region.
As a result, no precipitation is expected with plentiful sunshine and clear skies through at least Saturday night. Low temps will be rather seasonable in the upper 40s to mid 50s with highs on Saturday mainly in the 70s.

For Sunday and into Sunday night, an area of low pressure will develop over the Midwest and ride eastward along the aforementioned stalled boundary. This should result in the boundary lifting north as warm front. Shower activity should increase across portions of the region especially during the afternoon and evening, mainly from the I-95 corridor north and west, with the highest PoPs found over the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and northern NJ (40-55%). South and east of the I-95 corridor, PoP's drastically decrease toward the coast (10-30%).
However, as noted by the previous shift, there still is some variance on how far the north the boundary lifts. If the boundary lifts further north, then little in the way of precip may occur along with some warmer temps on Sunday. If the boundary remains closer to the region, then more in the way of showers are expected with cooler temps on Sunday. Shower activity will begin to wane late Sunday night as the low departs.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The long term period relatively remains unchanged as a whole.
The only notable weather feature worth mentioning is the cold front that crosses through the region on Monday. This will usher in a very dry and cool air mass through the middle of next week as a large and expansive area of high pressure develops over the Central US. This will keep the region dry under a northwest surface flow for the period. Temps will be seasonably cool on average of 5-10 degrees below normal. This will yield several opportunities for frost and potentially freeze headlines across portions of the area next week.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...VFR/SKC. Northwest winds 5 kts or less. High confidence.

Today...VFR/SKC. West to northwest winds increasing to near 10 kts.
High confidence.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. West to southwest winds 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR expected through the period.
Slight chance of sub-VFR conditions possible late Sunday into Sunday night for KRDG/KABE with a chance for rain showers.
Otherwise, no significant weather is expected.

MARINE

No marine hazards are expected through tonight. Northwest winds 10- 15 kts shifting westerly into the afternoon. Winds will increase slightly overnight, with some gusts near 20-25 kts possible at times north of Atlantic City after midnight. Seas 2-4 feet. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected.
WNW winds gusting to around 20 kts early, subsiding to 5-10 kts by the afternoon. Fair weather.

Sunday through Monday...SCA conditions likely for both the Delaware Bay and Atlantic Ocean waters due to winds and seas associated with cold frontal passage. Rain showers possible.

Monday night through Tuesday...SCA conditions may linger into Monday night on the ocean waters, otherwise conditions should generally remain below SCA thresholds.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ054-055- 060>062-101>106.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ001-007>010- 012-013-015>023-027.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.