Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Barnegat Light, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure across the area brought mostly sunny skies and a rather mild day across the region. High temps topped out a couple degrees on the plus side of normal for many spots. This is the first time this has happened (at PHL) since Jan 2. The fair weather will continue tonight with just some high clouds at times. Low temperatures should bottom out in the 20s for most areas with low 20s across NW areas and Delmarva while mid 20s will be found for the urban spots.

There will be more clouds around Monday. The high pressure will retreat while a sharp cold front approaches from the Great Lakes.
The front will cross the area from west to east during the afternoon. Temperatures will rise early to levels similar to today with upper 30s/low 40s most spots. Once the front crosses, winds will increase and temps will drop. We'll continue with a dry fcst with models not showing any showers developing in our region.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A low pressure system will track through southern Ontario/Quebec on Monday night as a cold front approaches the area. This front will cross through our region late Monday night, but with little moisture supply, the front is forecast to pass through dry. So other than some passing clouds, the weather will remain tranquil. Lows in the teens and 20s expected.

Following the frontal passage, cold Canadian high pressure will build in over the High Plains on Tuesday as the cold front moves offshore. This will usher in a reinforcing cold airmass through mid- week. A modest pressure gradient will also develop over the region on Tuesday, so Tuesday looks to be quite breezy with more clouds than sun. Have continued to blend in higher wind guidance due to the cold air advection push behind the front. So continue to think that we'll see wind gusts upwards of 30-40 mph during the afternoon. High temps will also be noticeably cooler compared to Monday; mainly in the 20s, so many places will struggle to reach the freezing mark for Tuesday afternoon. Combined with the gusty conditions, wind chill values will be in the teens during the afternoon.

The cold air advection push continues for Tuesday night, with lows falling into the teens for the majority of the area. On top of that, winds will remain quite gusty upwards of 30-35 mph despite the loss of diurnal mixing. As a result, wind chills will be in the single digits to near 0 degrees for most and as cold as -5 degrees in the Poconos. Will continue to monitor wind chills over the next few forecast cycles to see if a Cold Weather Advisory is warranted.
Also, cannot rule out a rogue snow shower across the Pocono Plateau.

Wednesday will virtually be a rinse and repeat of Tuesday as high pressure moves into the Midwest. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer though, topping out in the upper 20s to low 30s with a little more sun than clouds. Gusty winds up to 35-40 mph will continue however, as the pressure gradient remains overhead.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will gradually shift from the Midwest to Southeast US through the end of the work week, keeping the forecast dry through Friday. Other than a slight chance of snow showers north and west on Thursday with a shortwave aloft passing by, no precipitation is expected. Below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday with temperatures returning close to normal on Friday.

For Saturday and Sunday, there continues to be signals from both global deterministic and ensemble guidance for some unsettled weather to return to the area. Low pressure looks to pass to our north, allowing above normal temperatures to return for Saturday.
Eventually a cold front does look to cross through the area on Sunday, as temperatures return closer to normal. In terms of precipitation type, any precipitation will most likely be in the form of rain with frozen precipitation generally limited to the Pocono region.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...VFR. Winds light and variable (5 kt or less) though favoring a southwesterly direction. High confidence.

Monday... VFR expected. SCT/BKN stratocumulus deck expected basically from the I-95 corridor on west with mostly clear skies over the South Jersey terminals. Winds pick up out of the southwest around 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Monday Night...VFR. Westerly winds 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday night...VFR. Gusty winds up to 30-35 kt possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, no significant weather expected
Thursday through Friday
VFR. A slight chance of a snow at KRDG/KABE on Thursday, otherwise no significant weather expected.

MARINE
Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions tonight and Monday as high pressure ridges up into the area tonight and then moves away Monday. Fair weather is expected. Later Monday, winds will increase from the Southwest with some gusts close to 20 kts by sunset. The better chance for these gusts will be across the northern NJ ocean waters.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...SCA conditions likely with gale force conditions possible. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all ocean waters including the Delaware Bay for Monday night and Tuesday. A Gale Watch has also been issued for the ocean waters south of Little Egg Inlet including the Delaware Bay for Tuesday night.

Wednesday night through Friday...Lingering SCA conditions possible on Wednesday night, otherwise no marine headlines are expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ430- 431.
Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for ANZ430-431-452>455.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ450-451.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ452-453.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ454- 455.