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FXUS66 KSTO 281015 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 215 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Synopsis
Dry weather continues today. A few showers will be possible Wednesday with better shower chances at the end of the week.

Discussion
Skies remain clear across the region early this morning.
Conditions are similar to 24 hours ago with current temperatures mainly in the 30s across the Central Valley, 20s and 30s in the mountains, and upper 30s to mid 40s over the foothill and mountain thermal belts. Dew points have come up a bit across some parts of the valley, but we're still likely to see widespread minimum temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s in the Central Valley again this morning.

Blocking ridge will begin to break down today, but we'll still see another day of dry and mild conditions (highs likely to be pretty similar to Monday's).

The closed low off the northwest coast of California is still forecast to weaken and slide southeast along the central coast toward SoCal on Wednesday. Interior NorCal will be on the fringe of this system with the potential for a few showers mainly to our south and west. However, it will likely bring an increase in clouds and slightly higher dew points tonight, so minimum temperatures early Wednesday will likely remain above freezing through most of the valley.

Another quick-hitting system is likely to brush by on Thursday night into early Friday bringing some showers, mainly over the mountains. Behind that, clusters are indicating uncertainty for late in the week with a lot of members favoring at least weak ridging over NorCal into the weekend. Warm-advection may provide some lift to moisture coming into the region, and some QPF may occur over the mountains with only low chances for light amounts (mainly less than 0.10") in the valley.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)...
Precipitation chances continue on Saturday and into Sunday, though they continually decrease across that time period. Highest chances will occur in the northern Sacramento Valley and in the mountains (40-60% probability for both areas at different times), with QPF totals greater than or equal to 0.25 inches at 20-60% in these areas. Snowfall along the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades may occur as well, with the NBM giving probabilities of 50-70% for accumulations of 2 inches or more by Sunday at pass level. The remainder of the Valley and foothills will see probabilities of 15- 40% for precipitation, with a 10-30% chance of reaching or surpassing 0.25 inches.

Starting Sunday and into early next week, a ridge will build over the area, bringing in drier and warmer conditions. High temperatures will begin to reach a couple of degrees above normal early next week for the time of year. Values will be in the low 60s in much of the Valley, in the mid 50s to low 60s for the foothills, and high 40s to mid 50s in the mountains. Evenings will still be cool however, with lows into the mid 30s to low 40s in the Valley. Coolest temperatures will likely occur west of Interstate 5.

AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected over interior NorCal for the next 24 hours, with the exception of possible limited MVFR conditions in the northern San Joaquin Valley due to haze until around 18z on Tuesday. Surface winds will generally be below 12 kts.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

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